mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 How's the GGEM look? Any shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 How's the GGEM look? Any shift? Similar to GFS. Not as robust as yesterday's 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 DT posted his first call map on FB, not on his site yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 EC still keeps all measurable from PHL south. 0.01 at PHL, 0.06 at DOV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 no henry m. snow map yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 EC still keeps all measurable from PHL south. 0.01 at PHL, 0.06 at DOV. Any change from last night? Sounds intermediate between Ukie and other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 No phase at all on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 From JB on the weekend "event" "I still believe a Fab Feb is in the making. There is a chance that the next 3 precip events from I-70 north are snow. I believe we will continue to trend the storm this weekend north, and the much maligned mid atlantic snow goose will be fed... not stuffed but fed. In fact the areas most likely to get the most , and in this case in that part of the country its 3-6 inches are bounded by Colts Neck NJ ( only because Pauly the blog observer lives there) Altoona down to Garrett county MD ( No we did not name him Garrett after the snow capital of Maryland, Garrett county" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 From JB on the weekend "event" "I still believe a Fab Feb is in the making. There is a chance that the next 3 precip events from I-70 north are snow. I believe we will continue to trend the storm this weekend north, and the much maligned mid atlantic snow goose will be fed... not stuffed but fed. In fact the areas most likely to get the most , and in this case in that part of the country its 3-6 inches are bounded by Colts Neck NJ ( only because Pauly the blog observer lives there) Altoona down to Garrett county MD ( No we did not name him Garrett after the snow capital of Maryland, Garrett county" 3-6 inches THIS weekend or next?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 3-6 inches THIS weekend or next?? I do believe he said this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Here we go..... JB's Fab Feb in the making! He has 3-6" with this weekend and i guess he will be calling more with next weekend's potential? DT has a sharp cutoff through bucks. Anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Here we go..... JB's Fab Feb in the making! He has 3-6" with this weekend and i guess he will be calling more with next weekend's potential? DT has a sharp cutoff through bucks. Anyone else? DT has a map out? on facebook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I do believe he said this weekend. Thanks. I just find it hard to believe precip will make it this far north, at least measureable precip anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 DT has a map out? on facebook? yes, rev.1 of 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Thanks. I just find it hard to believe precip will make it this far north, at least measureable precip anyway. I could see a coating in Trenton, but no more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 You can see from the water vapor pic that the moisture is being forced SE by that big storm off of Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Wow - may have to worry about p-type doubtful unless you're down near Rehoboth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Nice move north on 15z SREF. 0.25 almost to Trenton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 18Z nam shockingly ended up shifting slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 18Z nam shockingly ended up shifting slightly south. Does the NAM often follow the SREFs or not? I've noticed lately that they seem to go in opposite directions for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With this type of setup, would the SREF's really be any good? seems like this will have a sharp cutoff and the blend may not be able to pick up on it all that well. It seems the ensembles, in general, are a bit too north with this because they are less-defined on the resolution side...i'm probably wrong to some extent but I'm curious how much value they would have in an overrunning with a relatively sharp cutoff/dry air factor at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With this type of setup, would the SREF's really be any good? seems like this will have a sharp cutoff and the blend may not be able to pick up on it all that well. It seems the ensembles, in general, are a bit too north with this because they are less-defined on the resolution side...i'm probably wrong to some extent but I'm curious how much value they would have in an overrunning with a relatively sharp cutoff/dry air factor at play. Just remember the wonderful job they did in NYC on 2/6/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Just remember the wonderful job they did in NYC on 2/6/2010. Unfortunately, I don't. I was watching the NAM shift its cutoff line 50-75 miles with each run. The little bit I glanced at through a few cached sites on a google search seem it nailed the 1' area really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Unfortunately, I don't. I was watching the NAM shift its cutoff line 50-75 miles with each run. The little bit I glanced at through a few cached sites on a google search seem it nailed the 1' area really well. Lets just say the SREF (and other models) had way more precip than NYC actually got. Anyway, 18Z GFS also nudged back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Lets just say the SREF (and other models) had way more precip than NYC actually got. lol...I'm not shocked (figured that but wasn't 100% sure) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 With this type of setup, would the SREF's really be any good? seems like this will have a sharp cutoff and the blend may not be able to pick up on it all that well. It seems the ensembles, in general, are a bit too north with this because they are less-defined on the resolution side...i'm probably wrong to some extent but I'm curious how much value they would have in an overrunning with a relatively sharp cutoff/dry air factor at play. Its my thought too, the poorer resolution models are phasing more. There are some rather old sref members (rsm & eta's (yeah that eta) that are suppose to get replaced soon. The one eta run on the 15z sref alone had about 1.5" water equiv for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 SREFs too far west on 12/26/09 also. The north trend on US models reversed at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro verified the best in the battle of the 12 hr progs with the 500mb heights with the kicker system in the Alaskan Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Euro verified the best in the battle of the 12 hr progs with the 500mb heights with the kicker system in the Alaskan Panhandle. "Data will be assimilated. Resistance is futile" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 NWS says rain anyway. Saturday Night: A chance of rain, mainly after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Sunday: A chance of rain, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Northeast wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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