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Winter Storm Threat February 3-5


Grothar

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From JB on the weekend "event"

"I still believe a Fab Feb is in the making. There is a chance that the next 3 precip events from I-70 north are snow. I believe we will continue to trend the storm this weekend north, and the much maligned mid atlantic snow goose will be fed... not stuffed but fed. In fact the areas most likely to get the most , and in this case in that part of the country its 3-6 inches are bounded by Colts Neck NJ ( only because Pauly the blog observer lives there) Altoona down to Garrett county MD ( No we did not name him Garrett after the snow capital of Maryland, Garrett county"

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From JB on the weekend "event"

"I still believe a Fab Feb is in the making. There is a chance that the next 3 precip events from I-70 north are snow. I believe we will continue to trend the storm this weekend north, and the much maligned mid atlantic snow goose will be fed... not stuffed but fed. In fact the areas most likely to get the most , and in this case in that part of the country its 3-6 inches are bounded by Colts Neck NJ ( only because Pauly the blog observer lives there) Altoona down to Garrett county MD ( No we did not name him Garrett after the snow capital of Maryland, Garrett county"

3-6 inches THIS weekend or next??

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With this type of setup, would the SREF's really be any good? seems like this will have a sharp cutoff and the blend may not be able to pick up on it all that well.

It seems the ensembles, in general, are a bit too north with this because they are less-defined on the resolution side...i'm probably wrong to some extent but I'm curious how much value they would have in an overrunning with a relatively sharp cutoff/dry air factor at play.

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With this type of setup, would the SREF's really be any good? seems like this will have a sharp cutoff and the blend may not be able to pick up on it all that well.

It seems the ensembles, in general, are a bit too north with this because they are less-defined on the resolution side...i'm probably wrong to some extent but I'm curious how much value they would have in an overrunning with a relatively sharp cutoff/dry air factor at play.

Just remember the wonderful job they did in NYC on 2/6/2010.

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Just remember the wonderful job they did in NYC on 2/6/2010.

Unfortunately, I don't. I was watching the NAM shift its cutoff line 50-75 miles with each run. :lol:

The little bit I glanced at through a few cached sites on a google search seem it nailed the 1' area really well.

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Unfortunately, I don't. I was watching the NAM shift its cutoff line 50-75 miles with each run. :lol:

The little bit I glanced at through a few cached sites on a google search seem it nailed the 1' area really well.

Lets just say the SREF (and other models) had way more precip than NYC actually got.

Anyway, 18Z GFS also nudged back south.

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With this type of setup, would the SREF's really be any good? seems like this will have a sharp cutoff and the blend may not be able to pick up on it all that well.

It seems the ensembles, in general, are a bit too north with this because they are less-defined on the resolution side...i'm probably wrong to some extent but I'm curious how much value they would have in an overrunning with a relatively sharp cutoff/dry air factor at play.

Its my thought too, the poorer resolution models are phasing more. There are some rather old sref members (rsm & eta's (yeah that eta) that are suppose to get replaced soon. The one eta run on the 15z sref alone had about 1.5" water equiv for Philly.

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NWS says rain anyway.

Saturday Night: A chance of rain, mainly after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: A chance of rain, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 45. Northeast wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

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