phlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If you're south of Wilmington to AC I think you can squeeze an inch or maybe two inches out of this turd of a storm. North of there is gonna be tough to get anything more than a stray flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 if you compare the ggem and the ukie they are pretty close in low placement with tracking along va/nc border. Both of them phase in the northern stream disturbance and don't cut off the low in the plains like the 18z gfs did, thus a more amplified solution. Like i said, models that matter. Don't really hang my hat on the ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 If you're south of Wilmington to AC I think you can squeeze an inch or maybe two inches out of this turd of a storm. North of there is gonna be tough to get anything more than a stray flurry. I'm going to hold out til the 00z run tonight. Everything is relative, this winter an advisory type event or near advisory type event (where the WSW criteria is 4" or more) is golden. Last two winters, we'd yawn at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Last two winters, we'd yawn at this. Nope, I'm still yawning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Nope, I'm still yawning You need to get more sleep. I'm getting a jump on 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Mixed bag overnight. Unfortuneately this is one of the best threats of the year south of phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 JBs thoughts on Sunday "I like the ensembles further north on the storm this weekend than the operational and after the plains get pounded, snow should fall through the I-80 corridor of the midwest then into the northern mid atlantic states, perhaps as far north as NYC but centered in further southwest The JMA represents my idea on this" Indicates snow up to probably NYC but more to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Fringed on the 09 SREF mean. An improvement vs 21z but a step back from 03z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 JBs thoughts on Sunday "I like the ensembles further north on the storm this weekend than the operational and after the plains get pounded, snow should fall through the I-80 corridor of the midwest then into the northern mid atlantic states, perhaps as far north as NYC but centered in further southwest The JMA represents my idea on this" Indicates snow up to probably NYC but more to the SW Atleast he didn't cite an ensemble member Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Atleast he didn't cite an ensemble member I believe that the JMA put out some significant qpf for our area (S Jersey). I am not sure about BL temperatures this far south. It all depends on wind direction and precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 NAM has a nice phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Riding the N fringe on the NAM. A nice step north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Little bit of digging and brings colder air in. A nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nam has some ok precip amounts to the south. need to get that futher north. the weenie in me is pulling for Jb . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The NAM has made big jumps in the last two runs. 18Z might be a run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS also has shifted N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS also has shifted N Much slower with the northern shortwave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The NAM has made big jumps in the last two runs. 18Z might be a run. I could see accumulating snow up I -80 on the 18Z - of course reality is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Much slower with the northern shortwave... Both NAM+GFS are sharper and dig the N stream feature further SW. A little more and we would be in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS actually gets precip into all of SE PA - the NAM, while better than before, still needs a shift north. We just need the GFS to be wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 even though the gfs brings precip uo to the area, looking at the skew t it looks like a lot of it is virga that falls. The bottom layers of the atmosphere are pretty dry. So the end result on the gfs may be flurries... Here is hr 48 off the gfs, notice from about 800mb down is pretty dry and not saturated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 fwiw the gfs ens are a good deal more amplified than the op... the ens mean accum qpf brings .5 line up to phl....25 up to abe... .75 line dc todel canal to ocean city nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 fwiw the gfs ens are a good deal more amplified than the op... the ens mean accum qpf brings .5 line up to phl....25 up to abe... .75 line dc todel canal to ocean city nj Wow - may have to worry about p-type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ehh, not so sure on the ensembles. Id bet we're better off looking at the individual's. Id say it's a safe bet to say that there's some amplified outliers skewing the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The NAM has made big jumps in the last two runs. 18Z might be a run. Isn't the 18z model run nearly always a run? The nam just woke up, it almost always starts out too dry and then "discovers" the system once we get within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Isn't the 18z model run nearly always a run? Good point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ehh, not so sure on the ensembles. Id bet we're better off looking at the individual's. Id say it's a safe bet to say that there's some amplified outliers skewing the mean. Almost all are a solid hit. Op run furthest S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We don't want it too close where we start having p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Almost all are a solid hit. Op run furthest S. That's pretty good agreement with the indvidual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 We don't want it too close where we start having p-type issues. I dont think we are quite at that point yet given that no model save the GEFS is showing significant QPF in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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