dryslotted Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 ^ We have a banter thread already... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Not surprised the GGEM shows the solution given the Sunday disturbance pushes out much faster than the GFS and is a bit more amplified out of the gate. It's the exception to the rest of the models that matter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 fwiw the 18z gfs ens phase in the northern stream moreso and dont cut off the low in the mid west. Thus resulting in a big jump further north extent of the precip field compared to the op. Looks like 7 of the 12 get .1 up to phl. The gfs ens mean brings .25 up to phl and .5 from central del to just south of cape may accum precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Not surprised the GGEM shows the solution given the Sunday disturbance pushes out much faster than the GFS and is a bit more amplified out of the gate. It's the exception to the rest of the models that matter though. if you compare the ggem and the ukie they are pretty close in low placement with tracking along va/nc border. Both of them phase in the northern stream disturbance and don't cut off the low in the plains like the 18z gfs did, thus a more amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I added pictures of what im talking about. You can see on the ggem and ukie the solid black line where the models are trying to phase in the northern stream with the storm coming out of the plains. The ukie phases them but to a lesser extent as the ggem. While you look at the gfs it keeps the systems separate and shears them apart. ggem ukie gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm getting a kick out of the excitement about a so-called "phase" which, on the GEM, produces a whopping 4" of snow in Philly. Big words for a minor to moderate event at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm getting a kick out of the excitement about a so-called "phase" which, on the GEM, produces a whopping 4" of snow in Philly. Big words for a minor to moderate event at best. This is what we call lowered expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm getting a kick out of the excitement about a so-called "phase" which, on the GEM, produces a whopping 4" of snow in Philly. Big words for a minor to moderate event at best. ray, if this was elko weather you would do naked cart wheels over 4 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This is what we call lowered expectations. this is what we call the winter of 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 ray, if this was elko weather you would do naked cart wheels over 4 inches of snow. No, we had 4.5" last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 No, we had 4.5" last week and i bet you were out in it making snowmen and having snow ball fights with your cats lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 and i bet you were out in it making snowmen and having snow ball fights with your cats lol Nah... did you notice I didn't even post a single photo of it on FB? I was still underwelmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Nah... did you notice I didn't even post a single photo of it on FB? I was still underwelmed hahaha this is true.. i was atleast expecting a hybrid snow cover picture lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The GFS ensemble members are run at a courser resolution, so maybe that's why they are quicker to phase. But.......the resolution of the op can ggem and ukmet are not exactly coarse in themselves. Ironically the can ggem ensemble members support the op gfs more while the 18z gfs ensemble members are more inclined toward the op can ggem. The NAEFS pops jumped upward, with a tightening of the pop gradient. Without sounding too optimistic, I think you have to leave the door open on this one yet. Pretty complicated with rex blocks and phasing (or lack thereof), kind of smacks of the modeling issues that occurred with boxing day, don't have to slow streams down too much without getting a plethora of different solutions. We may not know a definitive answer til the 00z run on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Placement of the northern stream energy may be key. GGEM and some of the GEFS members dig it further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Placement of the northern stream energy may be key. GGEM and some of the GEFS members dig it further SW. Part of this is evolution also (and we saw how the 12z gfs run on 12/24 was right after a poor initialization), but the can ggem 500mb 12hr forecast is not verifying well over Eastern Alaska and northern Canada off the 00z raobs, I see a 10m and a pair of 30m height errors meanwhile the gfs is spot on with two and a 20m error with the third. Based on those errors, that northern stream trof is not as sharp as depicted by the canadian forecast. The problem though is what happens to the kicker and that is still in the Pacific south of Alaska. On the Canadian, the forecast closed low by sunday morning is 100 meters deeper than the gfs and that is what drives the ridging in front of it and then permits the not so well initialized lead short wave to phase more. That kicker comes inland 00z sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The GFS ensemble members are run at a courser resolution, so maybe that's why they are quicker to phase. But.......the resolution of the op can ggem and ukmet are not exactly coarse in themselves. Ironically the can ggem ensemble members support the op gfs more while the 18z gfs ensemble members are more inclined toward the op can ggem. The NAEFS pops jumped upward, with a tightening of the pop gradient. Without sounding too optimistic, I think you have to leave the door open on this one yet. Pretty complicated with rex blocks and phasing (or lack thereof), kind of smacks of the modeling issues that occurred with boxing day, don't have to slow streams down too much without getting a plethora of different solutions. We may not know a definitive answer til the 00z run on Saturday. That right there is why i don't really worry what models, ensembles or weeklies say about the weather 2-4 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That right there is why i don't really worry what models, ensembles or weeklies say about the weather 2-4 weeks from now. Ehhh, they are both problematic, but they are symptomatic of different modeling issues. Read this: http://www.ecmwf.int/research/monthly_forecasting/Introduction.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 SREF a near miss but has shifted a little N vs 15z and good jump N vs 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 nam sniffed what the 18z gfs had and kept the northern stream and eenrgy from the plains separate. Thus, not much precip north of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looks like a partial phase resulting in a near miss. A step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GFS looks like a partial phase resulting in a near miss. A step in the right direction. UKMET took a wrong turn, I'm told. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 UKMET took a wrong turn, I'm told. It did. Similar to the NAM, if not worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 GGEM held serve. Though weaker and warmer than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Good trends except for the Nam and UKMet. The GFS ensembles were generally more amped than the OP. One more bump north to get into sig. precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Good trends except for the Nam and UKMet. The GFS ensembles were generally more amped than the OP. One more bump north to get into sig. precip. GEM was further south. Count that in the negative department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 euro looks further north.....but not enuf ...but it's a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 euro looks further north.....but not enuf ...but it's a trend Looks like its ensemble means from 12 Z essentially IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Decent jump north on the 3z SREF, .1 makes it North of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Now now, lets all calm down. We're all friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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