famartin Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The models all probably based on average water temps off the coast for this time of year. Water temps are in the 42 to 44 range at this time. It would be tough for a coastal low pulling that air off the ocean to produce a wide band of snow, but perhaps a very narrow shortlived one! Actually I believe updated (i.e., current) water temperatures are one of the model inputs, but don't quote me on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Actually I believe updated (i.e., current) water temperatures are one of the model inputs, but don't quote me on that. Yessir. The oceans in the operational models are steady state, but they are updates with satellite obs each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yessir. The oceans in the operational models are steady state, but they are updates with satellite obs each run. A far cry from when the models used to update land snow cover once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well 12z gfs has precip. futher north but 2m temps to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well 12z gfs has precip. futher north but 2m temps to warm. It's very thread the needle, but still has some chance if the GFS is correct. Still would like to see the Euro come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Most GEFS members look snowy. Need other models to come onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So...What happened to all the snow talk? I thought Feb was going to be the time of pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So...What happened to all the snow talk? I thought Feb was going to be the time of pattern change. it was till the pna on roids became the pna in diapers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 GFS suppresses but EC also joins in on Sunday timing (but even more suppressed). They both show a wave of low pressure zipping offshore of Hatteras or VA coastline on Monday night...EC a bit more robust than GFS (precip makes it to Philly barely on EC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Looks like the weenies in NYC will be crying- nice try anyway. Nothing like a Tn snake racer where the low shoots off the the east coast and gets sheared during the process Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 JMA looking good see what todays run looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 JMA looking good see what todays run looks like. That's yesterday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 JMA looking good see what todays run looks like. if you like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 now the ggem jumps on board with an accum snow from pa turnpike top central del and south jerz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Tombo, does the euro have anything getting up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Tombo, does the euro have anything getting up here? .01 line is just south of ILG and ACY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Tombo, does the euro have anything getting up here? 0.01 PHL, 0.02 ACY, 0.05 DOV... but its too warm when it falls late Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 GEM brings threat back from life support. GEFS and ukie are mildly supportive of the GEM with a little more amplitude than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 JMA looking good see what todays run looks like. Here is the updated one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We are not going to start posting the JMA clown maps in here, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We are not going to start posting the JMA clown maps in here, folks. I don't have a problem with the JMA, I have a problem when someone posts the Korean Model and you have to stand on your head to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We are not going to start posting the JMA clown maps in here, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I don't have a problem with the JMA, I have a problem when someone posts the Korean Model and you have to stand on your head to figure it out. Look, we have great discussion in here and you guys are great. We can get by talking about the major global models and their differences without introducing weenie topics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Look, we have great discussion in here and you guys are great. We can get by talking about the major global models and their differences without introducing weenie topics The JMA had ONE coup in 2006 but the weenies still treat it like a God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The JMA had ONE coup in 2006 but the weenies still treat it like a God. Wasn't that Valentine's day 2007, maybe we are getting into it's wheelhouse.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Wasn't that Valentine's day 2007, maybe we are getting into it's wheelhouse.... It was the Feb 11-12, 2006 storm. It showed the storm 7 days out and never lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Metfan, This is a non weenie tread. We only post torch pictures on here. It's brings some sanity to this winter/fall. On a brighter note, read the euro tried to phase the northern stream, and some of the individual ensembles on the gfs (a majority) phased it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 HM sighting in the NE threads! Next week looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 HM sighting in the NE threads! Next week looking good! So? Just because HM says the threat looks legit for NE, that doesn't mean jack for us down here. Plus it is over 8 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So? Just because HM says the threat looks legit for NE, that doesn't mean jack for us down here. Plus it is over 8 days away. ha ha Yeah pretty much!! It's not like he's the only one pointing out next weekend though either. Many respectable mets and non-mets on here have been eyeing those dates too. So this threat is legit in my opinion. (and not just for New England) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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