Grothar Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Hell if NYC can have one, so can we. Bring on the snow threat. Start posting away my friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Not seeing a snow threat...I do see this verbatim off the 12 Z ECM accu pro images however...in reference to 2 meter temps For the first system between 96-120 hrs the temperatures at 102 hrs are in the 40s and 50s with the ABE region in the 55-60 degree range..108 hrs they are still in the 40-50 range ..same for 114 hrs and by 120 they drop to 35-40 in the ABE region..40-45 in NYC with anywhere from .25-1.00 rainfall across the area For the later system For the Miller B that effects the region at 174 hrs, I think it would be a stretch to say that would be light snow with temperatures in the 35-40 region and NYC & PHI 40-45 but never the less the QPF is very light to begin with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Not seeing a snow threat...I do see this verbatim off the 12 Z ECM accu pro images however...in reference to 2 meter temps For the first system between 96-120 hrs the temperatures at 102 hrs are in the 40s and 50s with the ABE region in the 55-60 degree range..108 hrs they are still in the 40-50 range ..same for 114 hrs and by 120 they drop to 35-40 in the ABE region..40-45 in NYC with anywhere from .25-1.00 rainfall across the area For the later system For the Miller B that effects the region at 174 hrs, I think it would be a stretch to say that would be light snow with temperatures in the 35-40 region and NYC & PHI 40-45 but never the less the QPF is very light to begin with... Euro ensembles do not support the operational run at all. You better check the Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Euro ensembles do not support the operational run at all. You better check the Nogaps. Never said they did but if you want to throw the NOGAPS into the equation it does not have a snowstorm either I think that was my whole point.... We are so starved for snow this year that we are buying into long range phantom snow events on one model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Never said they did but if you want to throw the NOGAPS into the equation it does not have a snowstorm either I think that was my whole point.... We are so starved for snow this year that we are buying into long range phantom snow events on one model run... Who bought into it? Most likely any storm later next week is rain for here. After that is when most people, including many meteorologists, believe some legitimate cold and storm chances come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Who bought into it? Most likely any storm later next week is rain for here. After that is when most people, including many meteorologists, believe some legitimate cold and storm chances come. You do not visit all the sites that i visit apparently "The superbowl weekend storm threat is very much the real deal in my opinion. " "JB on latest blog liking a phaser along the east coast this weekend. Southern energy will come out faster than gfs protrays phasing with the northern jet as it comes out. The potential for a east coast snowstorm is real this weekend. " Not to mention the NYC threads! Would these be the same mets that forecasted a historical pattern flip in January and we are currently +4.8 degrees on the month? Call me cautious ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I think the desire to have something to track all week is different than "buying in". Channel your inner-weenie and relax a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Hell if NYC can have one, so can we. Bring on the snow threat. Start posting away my friends It will be very interesting to track. GFS has been bringing in colder air sooner the last 2 runs and the precip comes earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The EC is Dr. No on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Models all over the place but having any threat is a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The EC is Dr. I Don't Have a Clue on This One fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS more favorable than Euro and we know how that usually turns out but HPC indicates we have a shot. UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS..ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OF 06Z GFS/06Z GEFS MEAN/LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS/ENSEMBLE CLUSTER GROUPINGS CONTINUE TO CONCUR WITH ABOVE THINKING. A DIFFICULT AND LOW TO NO CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN DETAILS LATE PERIOD MAINLY WITH THE ERN CONUS TROF. BASED ON AN AMALGAM OF DAYS 6-7 SOLUTIONS THE 06Z GFS ENS MEAN SHOULD BE INCORPORATED INTO THE SOLUTION AND SUPPORTS THE EARLIER ABOVE USED OVERNIGHT MODEL BLEND. DEPICTION BY DAY 5 FRI OF A CENTER JUMPING SFC LOW FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE NC COAST AND THAN AN EXIT NEWD TO NEAR THE NEW ENG BENCH MARK BY DAY 6 SAT SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME ALBEIT WITH CONTINUED VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS looks like a snow-rain now with quite a bit of QPF. Really dazzling how it changes every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS looks like a snow-rain now with quite a bit of QPF. Really dazzling how it changes every run. Come on snow for this weekend--- no godzilla whammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I like the banana high being shown on the gfs. Don't like the fact of how quickly the trof goes neg tilt which pushes the storm way west. When it does 2ndry its so far west that it 2ndrs over land which isnt good. Need that trof to not take on a neg tilt as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I like the banana high being shown on the gfs. Don't like the fact of how quickly the trof goes neg tilt which pushes the storm way west. When it does 2ndry its so far west that it 2ndrs over land which isnt good. Need that trof to not take on a neg tilt as fast. Yep. The high position on the GFS as modeled is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 0z GFS has some initial frozen precip... Primary low take a while to transfer, and the high slips east off the coast. Secondary low is a 1004mb low sitting off south jersey hr 168. 850's go up to allentown to the ne pa nw nj border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 171, 850's running I-95, light precip back towards our area....1000mb low inside the benchmark. Starts pulling away though. Not too shabby Still need some work. If the storm started earlier, the hp would stick around longer. The primary really brings in some warm air kinda flooding the coastal plain.not a complete torch, but quicker on the transfer would be more ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 171, 850's running I-95, light precip back towards our area....1000mb low inside the benchmark. Starts pulling away though. Not too shabby On this run, we could get a little snow on the front and back of the system. Need the h5 progression to be better to get anything major in the way of snow. Still a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 171, 850's running I-95, light precip back towards our area....1000mb low inside the benchmark. Starts pulling away though. Not too shabby Still need some work. If the storm started earlier, the hp would stick around longer. The primary really brings in some warm air kinda flooding the coastal plain.not a complete torch, but quicker on the transfer would be more ideal. Precip ends between 168 and 171...you might squeeze out a flake but odds are it ends as rain verbatim south of I-78 in PA and NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Not looking good after last nights runs. Only positive is model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 gfs says enjoy the rain storm on the 5-6th... and then weenie stuff kicks in, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Since February 4th is my moving day, I was sure we'd get a raging blizzard on the one day I didn't want one. Then again, I'd take the raging blizzard. We could always reschedule our move for the 11th. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Since February 4th is my moving day, I was sure we'd get a raging blizzard on the one day I didn't want one. Then again, I'd take the raging blizzard. We could always reschedule our move for the 11th. . Can you move in a cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Can you move in a cold rain? Ha, that wouldn't be fun either, but at least people wouldn't be as likely to cancel and leave us with only 2 or 3 people to help. I'm perfectly fine with the 45 & partly sunny as currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 January in philadelphia over the past 15 years has averaged over 1 degree higher tthan the 1981-2010 normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 not that it should be trusted but the gfs brings in some lgt snow sunday now...but again be very cautious in this pattern. Expect this storm to be modeled to be in toronto this time tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suskyman Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The models all probably based on average water temps off the coast for this time of year. Water temps are in the 42 to 44 range at this time. It would be tough for a coastal low pulling that air off the ocean to produce a wide band of snow, but perhaps a very narrow shortlived one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The models all probably based on average water temps off the coast for this time of year. Water temps are in the 42 to 44 range at this time. It would be tough for a coastal low pulling that air off the ocean to produce a wide band of snow, but perhaps a very narrow shortlived one! on the immediate coast maybe, but with those low tracks the cities would have a northeast wind which source region is over land and not directly over the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The models all probably based on average water temps off the coast for this time of year. Water temps are in the 42 to 44 range at this time. It would be tough for a coastal low pulling that air off the ocean to produce a wide band of snow, but perhaps a very narrow shortlived one! Well hopefully warmer waters can trigger more dynamic systems, maybe not this weekend, but down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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