Powerball Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 lol. http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 000FXUS63 KGRR 281758 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1255 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 LATEST UPDATE...SHORT TERM... WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WITH THE 4 PM ZONE FORECAST.... I PLAN ON PUTTING OUT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW WEST OF I-69 AND NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96. LOOKING AT THE ISENTROPIC FORECAST DATA THERE IS ACTUALLY A TROWAL IN THE 275K TO 280K LAYERS SUNDAY MORNING. THAT FEATURE WAS NOT IN THE SNOW EVENT THIS MORNING AND YET WE GOT 2 TO 4 INCHES FROM THAT. ALSO THERE IS IMPRESSIVE LIFT IN THE DGZ...MORE SO WITH THE SUNDAY MORNING EVENT THAN WITH THIS MORNINGS EVENT. IF DTX WANTS TO MATCH MY ADVISORY... THEN IT WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 04 AM AND NOON... THAT IS WHEN THE LIFT IS THE BEST. WITH WEST WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN -8C AND -12C WILL HELP THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT CAUSE BUT MOST OF THIS SNOW IS NOT LAKE EFFECT BUT SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SNOW WILL NOT BE AS WET AS THIS MORNINGS EITHER. I EXPECT SNOW TO LIQUID WATER RATIOS AROUND 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I noticed the NAM and the NMM beefed up totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 RUC showing a brief, but intense band of snow tomorrow over lower MI FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 According to the HRRR, a stripe of 2-3" of snow is in store for far northern Cook County, Kane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 The sad part about the RUC is that's pretty close to how that event at the end of 2007/beginning of 2008 played out (which should remain nameless). Fortunately, two things that I do have on my side it the seasonal trend for clippers to shift southward, and the RUC does have a northward/warm bias in/of itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 According to the HRRR, a stripe of 2-3" of snow is in store for far northern Cook County, Kane. I think 2-3 counties in MI will get blasted tonight;. Rucc consistantly sends a 35 db + blob that travels in a localized area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Saw 0.7" of snow yesterday morning melt by afternoon, and 0.6" of snow this morning melt by afternoon, hoping tomorrows event is best of the 3-day parade of nuisance snows. By this, I mean having 1"+ of snowfall and still some snow on the ground at sunset Dendritic growth sounds decent and the lake looks to give a definite boost to the synoptic activity, so hoping for a Sunday surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 RPM shows clipper pulling LES bands towards center of circulation and into central OH after it passes through, may get interesting tommorow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I think 2-3 counties in MI will get blasted tonight;. Rucc consistantly sends a 35 db + blob that travels in a localized area. That total snowfall depiction doesn't line up with the advisories though... One solution will end up being wrong. Maybe IWX will have to post some advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Looks like a bit more broad area of snow now. Maybe even a solid inch here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Looks like a bit more broad area of snow now. Maybe even a solid inch here! You do realize that most of that is from whatever falls tonight right? A quick look at radar will tell you that the HRRR is already off. And if you want to get more into the data take a look at the DVN 0z raob sounding...really dry in the low levels and the stuff on radar right now isn't reaching the ground.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 You do realize that most of that is from whatever falls tonight right? A quick look at radar will tell you that the HRRR is already off. And if you want to get more into the data take a look at the DVN 0z raob sounding...really dry in the low levels and the stuff on radar right now isn't reaching the ground.. I figured the HRRR was a more accurate depiction. Western MI stations are about as dry as around here. Hey I'll take an inch tonight! FWIW, I remember last night it seemed like there wasn't much virga over head here, but there was further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 You do realize that most of that is from whatever falls tonight right? A quick look at radar will tell you that the HRRR is already off. And if you want to get more into the data take a look at the DVN 0z raob sounding...really dry in the low levels and the stuff on radar right now isn't reaching the ground.. Precip breaking out nicely over NW IL.. Freeport,Rockford,Belvidere all reporting -SN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 FWIW (not much), 00z NAM did come a bit south with the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Precip breaking out nicely over NW IL.. Freeport,Rockford,Belvidere all reporting -SN.. took awhile to saturate but now we got snow up there. Curious to see how tonight and tomorrow morning play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Precip breaking out nicely over NW IL.. Freeport,Rockford,Belvidere all reporting -SN.. That formed quickly! 23z HRRR basically starts the "heavier" band over Lake County the continues it to Van Buren and Kalamazoo Counties. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/t7/2012012823/acsnw_t7sfc_f15.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 That formed quickly! 23z HRRR basically starts the "heavier" band over Lake County the continues it to Van Buren and Kalamazoo Counties. http://rapidrefresh....w_t7sfc_f15.png lol and the new HRRR has no snow tonight. What a joke of a model sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Flurries starting to fly here. ...Crazy 00z HRRR model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Hey thunderstorm12 can you please say it will not be cold and snowy in Febuary? When you said it was too dry to snow it started to snow in those areas. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Hey thunderstorm12 can you please say it will not be cold and snowy in Febuary? When you said it was too dry to snow it started to snow in those areas. lol I never said it was too dry to snow. I said at the time it was still too dry. But if people are going to hump the HRRR, they need to learn to look at other data to figure out whats going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Heh, now the RUC places the band south of I-94 in Michigan. lol... BTW, one should keep an eye on those mid-level lapse rates too. Since they're sitting at about 7.5-8 C/KM, one does have to wonder if the band will in fact get out of hand convectively based on that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Heh, now the RUC places the band south of I-94 in Michigan. lol... SWS just issued for that region. SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 834 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 INZ003>007-MIZ077>081-290845- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-BERRIEN-CASS MI- ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN... NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT... NILES...BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC... CASSOPOLIS...MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON... MENDON...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD... JONESVILLE 834 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 /734 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2012/ ...ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL PICK UP IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CLOSER TO SUNRISE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS SUCH THAT ISOLATED HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE THAT COULD STRENGTHEN SNOW BANDS SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ON SUNDAY. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 A nice dusting so far. We've enjoyed the evening to go from the moon and stars around 6, to broken/thickening clouds by 7, to brief pockets of moderate intensity snow and low visibility by 9. Currently just some pixie dust. Maybe one more intense burst to go. edit: very intense snow shower at present with visibilities way down once again. Some large dendrites mixed into what looks like a shaken snow globe. Going to try for a decent pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 A nice dusting so far. We've enjoyed the evening to go from the moon and stars around 6, to broken/thickening clouds by 7, to brief pockets of moderate intensity snow and low visibility by 9. Currently just some pixie dust. Maybe one more intense burst to go. Were the flakes dendrites before? Looks like it's almost here now. ...I got my answer. Snowing good here now. Full sized dendrites falling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Crazy crazy crazy. Moon back out to the west while some final flurries glide through. Just enough to keep the winter spirit alive another night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Looks like a regular snowstorm outside! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Shows how much I have been paying attention, I didn't even know about this potential until reading this thread. lol That being said, that is a nice compact vort that will be sliding ESE and strengthening as it does so. This could potentially yield nicely for someone across S. MI late tonight and into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Picked up 0.6" of snow in about 20 minutes. Looks like another wave of snow in the early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Btw this first wave that is coming through right now across SWMI looks a bit stronger than forecasted, might be a nice 1-2 punch upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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