powderfreak Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Did you actually look at anything? LOL... it looks good on paper except for the QPF print-out. I have a hard time believing the values mentioned in this thread do not produce a quick inch or two for some areas. Especially Berks with some upslope assist and then eastern areas with more moist, unstable air. Usually the Berks can at least use some of the moisture pooling out ahead of the front from the Great Lakes region with strong WSW winds ripping across the lakes and putting moisture out ahead of the front. High ratio stuff too so even 0.05" could give 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 They all look the same. I think once it taps into some moisture, something may form and move east. It could happen just to your east, but I think ctrl and ern areas may see some interesting stuff. It may not be widespread, but some might. That's how it goes with these things. Yeah and these events are very cool from a met stand point... not like there's much else to look at right now. Meso-scale events are always fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yeah and these events are very cool from a met stand point... not like there's much else to look at right now. Meso-scale events are always fascinating. It could just be a non-event, but seeing those parameters and knowing how models sometimes don't handle small scale things well...it's something to watch. I certainly wouldn't lock in widespread TSSN or something..lol, but we could see some cool things late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Is it still a midnight to 3:00AM deal? I wish it was sooner, or during rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z NAM looks quite interesting for eastern sections...even some hints at a possible weak low development just off-shore. With how cold temps will be aloft and water temps obviously being much warmer this should create a very small area of some very good instability...going to incredibly interesting across the cape area overnight/early AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 12z NAM looks quite interesting for eastern sections...even some hints at a possible weak low development just off-shore. With how cold temps will be aloft and water temps obviously being much warmer this should create a very small area of some very good instability...going to incredibly interesting across the cape area overnight/early AM tomorrow. yeah it's a unique set-up. looking forward to watching this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 yeah it's a unique set-up. looking forward to watching this. The 9z RSM loks intriging too. If you look at the 5h images, you can see a kink in the heights as it traverses over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 yeah it's a unique set-up. looking forward to watching this. Looks fun for you, Bob and other eastern folks. Meanwhile, beautiful day out there today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Pretty decent setup for a waterspout or two perhaps off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL, add this to something you do not see every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 LOL, add this to something you do not see every day. Awesome--I was waiting for that to show up on some map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Phil may get a big bag of WTF later on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 This is from last nights NAM but look at these lapse rates...you never see this color shield over us...usually only exists in the southwestern US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Low level dry ar is probably the biggest issue to overcome in this setup. Its actually trended a bit drier in the low levels than it looked the past 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Low level dry ar is probably the biggest issue to overcome in this setup. Its actually trended a bit drier in the low levels than it looked the past 2 days. I guess the one good thing is it does appear there is adequate moisture with the front alone...but the column is very dry right now so the question is how quickly can we saturate the column? Likely lift does increase across eastern sections though so this could end up saving them. The lack of moisture though has me thinking that we see any snow squalls probably more isolated than widespread in nature and if we do see a line probably a broken line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Low level dry ar is probably the biggest issue to overcome in this setup. Its actually trended a bit drier in the low levels than it looked the past 2 days. I think that's the problem for some areas away from the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I think that's the problem for some areas away from the water. If we had widespread >80% RH in the boundary layer, then this would probably be a really big windex event. Also the low level convergence looks like it peters out a bit as it approaches us which also probably inhibits the advection of better LL moisture....I'm just looking this event over compared to come of our great windex events like 1/28/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 If we had widespread >80% RH in the boundary layer, then this would probably be a really big windex event. Also the low level convergence looks like it peters out a bit as it approaches us which also probably inhibits the advection of better LL moisture....I'm just looking this event over compared to come of our great windex events like 1/28/10. It looks like the conv weakens moving into wrn areas, and then strengthens again as it moves east..especially se mass and the Cape. I think cstl areas, especially se parts won't have a low level RH issue with those waters to the south. If that line does weaken which is probably will, it may pick up again over ern CT and RI. Either way, some really good parameters that are hard to come by this time of year. Problem down by the Cape, is the boundary layer. Still seems a little weird to me that models weaken the lift as it moves into SNE, but they all do, so it's a combo of a few things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It looks like the conv weakens moving into wrn areas, and then strengthens again as it moves east..especially se mass and the Cape. I think cstl areas, especially se parts won't have a low level RH issue with those waters to the south. If that line does weaken which is probably will, it may pick up again over ern CT and RI. Either way, some really good parameters that are hard to come by this time of year. Problem down by the Cape, is the boundary layer. Still seems a little weird to me that models weaken the lift as it moves into SNE, but they all do, so it's a combo of a few things. I'm sure someone is going to see some pretty intense precip rates for a brief time and probably even some thunder, esp in SE MA...but it probably won't be as widespread as it might otherwise be if we had a larger region of low level moisture....but who knows, sometimes the models really screw the pooch on these setups. That's a lot of instability that can make up for some deficencies in other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It is starting early... we are seeing moderate to heavy snowfall now on the Spine (county line between Stowe and Burlington). Vis gets very low with massive flakes every once in a while. Radar not all that impressive but this is classic upslope/lake effect combo quarter sized dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I'm sure someone is going to see some pretty intense precip rates for a brief time and probably even some thunder, esp in SE MA...but it probably won't be as widespread as it might otherwise be if we had a larger region of low level moisture....but who knows, sometimes the models really screw the pooch on these setups. That's a lot of instability that can make up for some deficencies in other areas. Well it should be interesting to see how it pans out either way. Just seeing the SREFs show those tstm probs down the Cape is pretty funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Did the Euro print out anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Did the Euro print out anything? Very little. Most of it was on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Very little. Most of it was on the Cape. Seems like this is a Cape rain/mix -tstorm event and for the other 95% of us it's meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Seems like this is a Cape rain/mix -tstorm event and for the other 95% of us it's meh some guidance gets it going just a bit to your east and marches it due east through RI/E MA as a bona-fide squall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 some guidance gets it going just a bit to your east and marches it due east through RI/E MA as a bona-fide squall line. I wonder if we might have another one of these meso lows rolling through like we did last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Incredibly impressive snowfall now. Wow. Time to head back out as 30-35dbz is overhead. This is 1-2"/hr stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Pretty soon we will be talking instability and real severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Incredibly impressive snowfall now. Wow. Time to head back out as 30-35dbz is overhead. This is 1-2"/hr stuff. Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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