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January 29th/30th


weatherwiz

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That's so typical though for these squall lines to fall apart on approach to the Hudson Valley. This one holds together just long enough for me on the NAM. But then they can upslope and have second life. The Hudson Valley is a snow desert on any kind of westerly wind component.

Squall line right now bearing down on me and my bet is it will just about shot by the time it reaches the Hudson River.

Not quite sure why the NAM disintegrates the squall line as it moves east toward New England. Column looks pretty moist. Regardless, these are the type of things that can get pretty wild here in the Berks as these lines get orographically enhanced sometimes as they pass through. I remember some wild ones from January 2004 with some of those arctic FROPAs that put down a flash 3-4" of fluff snow in an hour. They were a nice break from the monotony of that cold, dry period. Could get fun here tomorrow night.

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I wouldn't focus too much on qpf charts with this type of deal. While I think the best stuff will probably be to the west of new england (and then probably refire over the warmer ocean), I think this is something we need to watch for quick convective squalls with isold lightning. Low level moisture could be better, but it's pretty rare to see NAM FOUS data have an LI of 0 in the middle of winter in any scenario. I think tomorrow night will be interesting.

Then, just after the front passes the potential for an hour or two window of 50 mph wind gusts with the pressure rises.

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I wouldn't focus too much on qpf charts with this type of deal. While I think the best stuff will probably be to the west of new england (and then probably refire over the warmer ocean), I think this is something we need to watch for quick convective squalls with isold lightning. Low level moisture could be better, but it's pretty rare to see NAM FOUS data have an LI of 0 in the middle of winter in any scenario. I think tomorrow night will be interesting.

Then, just after the front passes the potential for an hour or two window of 50 mph wind gusts with the pressure rises.

Agreed. I think the best bet for some accumulation is from the Greens, Berks and points west. This may be one of those deals where the mountains/hills in WNE gobble up some of the moisture and get accumulations (generally 1-3") while points east get a quick, but possibly impressive squall and a quick coating to half inch.

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I wouldn't focus too much on qpf charts with this type of deal. While I think the best stuff will probably be to the west of new england (and then probably refire over the warmer ocean), I think this is something we need to watch for quick convective squalls with isold lightning. Low level moisture could be better, but it's pretty rare to see NAM FOUS data have an LI of 0 in the middle of winter in any scenario. I think tomorrow night will be interesting.

Then, just after the front passes the potential for an hour or two window of 50 mph wind gusts with the pressure rises.

:thumbsup:

I was waiting for you to post!!!

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The 00z SPC WRF (a model I have been watching and have generally liked) really re-ignites the line across Eastern CT eastward. We really need to watch this.

http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html

Just looked at that, Do you remember a mid winter TT of 61 in a cold Env?

At an all night indoor charity Womans softball tourney, nice views.

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The 00z SPC WRF (a model I have been watching and have generally liked) really re-ignites the line across Eastern CT eastward. We really need to watch this.

http://www.emc.ncep....animate_1h.html

Really shows nicely in eastern SNE. For many of the rest of us, not so much. But we'll see how that plays out.

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This is for Ginx...

Tim Kelley sent me a text at 5:30 this morning and it said, "Weir is hyped for tonight, saying 6 inches +"

Can never feel bad about an event when Windex Weir Lundstedt is on board. Gonna get ripped in the northern Greens tonight.

Congrats! BOX is disappointing for their CWA with: ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LITTLE...A TRACE TO LESS THAN HALF OF AN INCH AS THERE .

ALY throws some bones to their northern reaches: THERE COULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH LOCAL DUSTINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

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SPC WRF makes sense. Gets a taste of the moisture and fires up over ern areas. I really like that model as well on a mesoscale level.

Some of the other models seem to fire the line up as it moves into ern areas so we'll see.Soundings continue impressive. Could be some weird stuff happening later on.

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Nothing American

They all look the same.

I think once it taps into some moisture, something may form and move east. It could happen just to your east, but I think ctrl and ern areas may see some interesting stuff. It may not be widespread, but some might. That's how it goes with these things.

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