Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Srefs a little juicier for tomorrow evening. probably some heavy zero visibility squalls for someone while skipping others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 January 28, 2010 yes about 2 years ago to the day thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Well when I said yesterday 1-3 I am hoping for some moisture to be thrown back, hopefully this thing digs south and some synoptic snows are around as well, banking on some surface dev south of long island, should be very dynamic at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 BOX unimpressed PRELIM LOOK SUGGESTS SHORT WAVE TROF WILL HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE AND MOISTURE FOR FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE REFLECTION IS A COLD FRONT WITH SOME BAGINESS IN THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRES PATTERN. AT THIS TIME THE DYNAMICS AND UPWARD MOTION RELATIVELY WEAK AND UNORGANIZED. MAY SEE A DUSTING IN SOME LOCATIONS...PERHAPS A HALF INCH OR SO IN THE MONADNOCKS. EXPECT THE SNOW TO BE GONE BY THE MORNING COMMUTE EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY CAPE ANN AND CAPE COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 This is for IJD only 12 hr LI change on the GFS 12.01 T1 to T5 13.2 difference RH 63% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 This is for IJD only 12 hr LI change on the GFS 12.01 T1 to T5 13.2 difference RH 63% there is your PVA, if the progs hold, great chance of some good squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Man those are some weird numbers. You're not supposed to have those in winter..lol. I'm surprised the NAM is so dry too...although it probably would not be able to model mesoscale things well, but this is the type of deal where it should do well. It would be nice to get the s/w further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Man those are some weird numbers. You're not supposed to have those in winter..lol. I'm surprised the NAM is so dry too...although it probably would not be able to model mesoscale things well, but this is the type of deal where it should do well. It would be nice to get the s/w further south. All models for that matter. Maybe the column needs a little more saturation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I am definitely liking where this is going... H85 temps of -10C are text book high-ratio fluff for here in the northern Greens. This could be a surprise 3-6 incher of fluff with upslope assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Man those are some weird numbers. You're not supposed to have those in winter..lol. I'm surprised the NAM is so dry too...although it probably would not be able to model mesoscale things well, but this is the type of deal where it should do well. It would be nice to get the s/w further south. for some reason it breaks up this line, column is marginal wet like you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 18z NAM now mimicking GFS 12 Z holy crazy Total Totals Index: 62.51 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Vertical Totals Index: 31.72 C Cross Totals Index: 30.79 C K Index: 21.20 Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms Sweat Index: 402.32 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 for some reason it breaks up this line, column is marginal wet like you said This has quarter-sized flakes and whiteout conditions written all over...2-4" looks good on first guess. I love when these cold fronts hit the mountains. Berkshire crew should pick up a couple to few inches, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 for some reason it breaks up this line, column is marginal wet like you said Well it could be something where there is a late blooming line of heavier SHSN or even RA along the south coast...once it gets its feet wet. I could see that. Either way, that's some instability right there. The column may be a little dry, but inject moisture off the south coast, and you may get some sort of feature developing, I would think. Surface based instability may be able to override any flaws in the mid levels. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Well it could be something where there is a late blooming line of heavier SHSN or even RA along the south coast...once it gets its feet wet. I could see that. Either way, that's some instability right there. The column may be a little dry, but inject moisture off the south coast, and you may get some sort of feature developing, I would think. Surface based instability may be able to override any flaws in the mid levels. We'll see. Geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Geezus Yeah, and that isn't dry either. Weird that the NAM wouldn't have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Yeah, and that isn't dry either. Weird that the NAM wouldn't have something. wet microburst, gustnado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Something weird is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 NWS is on-board up here for Sunday Night... Tonight: Snow showers likely, mainly before 2am. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Wind chill values as low as zero. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 16 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Wind chill values as low as -2. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 14 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Sunday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 4am. Low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -2. South wind 11 to 17 mph becoming northwest. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Finally going to get my derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...LATE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LVL TROF WITH POTENT 5H VORT WL CROSS OUR CWA. THIS ENERGY ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SOME LAKE MOISTURE INTERACTION...AND VERY STEEP 700 TO 500MB LAPSE RATES WL PRODUCE MORE SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS POSSIBLE. MANY OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL REFLECTIVITY PROGGS SHOW A RIBBON OF ENHANCED 30 TO 40 DBZ`S MOVING ACRS OUR CWA...ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT...INTERACTING WITH SOUTHWEST FLW/LAKE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...NAM12 SHOWS STRONG UVVS BTWN 00Z AND 06Z MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS OUR REGION...ALONG WITH SOME GOOD 850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. FEEL THE SFC BOUNDARY AND DEVELOPING LLVL CAA WL RESULT IN A 2 TO 4 HR WINDOW OF ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS BTWN 1 AND 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE....STRONG UVVS...AND BEST SNOW GROWTH REGION ALL LINING UP FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME HINTS AT A WEAK BACKSIDE 700MB DEFORMATION BANDING DEVELOPING ACRS THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT. HOWEVER...QPF WL BE LIMITED ACRS THE CPV DUE TO SW DOWNSLOPE FLW AHEAD OF SYSTEM...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACRS THE DACKS/PARTS OF THE GREENS. IN ADDITION...FAST MOVEMENT OF DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE WL QUICKLY CUTOFF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AFT 06Z MONDAY. WL TREND TWD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS MTNS TO M20S WARMER VALLEYS. MONDAY...SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACRS OUR CWA...WITH SOME LEFTOVER UPSLOPE FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS/NORTHERN GREENS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 There seems to be plenty of moisture in the column and great instability and PVA...but for some reason the models aren't generating that much lift during this FROPA...which is why we have little qpf on them. It will be interesting to see what happens. I'm going to look a lot closer at the soundings late tonight or tomorrow mornings runs and see what is going on. Usually when you see this setup, there will be modeled lift and qpf, but not always. Sometimes they bust on that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 18Z NAM brings a nice line of snow through here tomorrow evening. It seems to be holding it together - which they often do not do this far east. I am definitely liking where this is going... H85 temps of -10C are text book high-ratio fluff for here in the northern Greens. This could be a surprise 3-6 incher of fluff with upslope assist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 There seems to be plenty of moisture in the column and great instability and PVA...but for some reason the models aren't generating that much lift during this FROPA...which is why we have little qpf on them. It will be interesting to see what happens. I'm going to look a lot closer at the soundings late tonight or tomorrow mornings runs and see what is going on. Usually when you see this setup, there will be modeled lift and qpf, but not always. Sometimes they bust on that part. Are you at least somewhat excited for spot 1-3 despite model output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 There seems to be plenty of moisture in the column and great instability and PVA...but for some reason the models aren't generating that much lift during this FROPA...which is why we have little qpf on them. It will be interesting to see what happens. I'm going to look a lot closer at the soundings late tonight or tomorrow mornings runs and see what is going on. Usually when you see this setup, there will be modeled lift and qpf, but not always. Sometimes they bust on that part. Yeah this run of the NAM has enough moisture, but seems to lose the synoptic lift moving east, before perking up again near the Cape. I was kind of surprised because heck...the parcels practically can rise by themselves along the south coast..lol. I would think that alone generates lift, and the models finally pick up on that when it leaves the Cape. Just seems like it may be a little too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The strong lift in NY State is actually more frontogenesis and deformation related. You can see it in the 700 fields. That could be a really sick band of snow up that way late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Are you at least somewhat excited for spot 1-3 despite model output? 3"? Doubt it. But an inch maybe...I wouldn't throw around amounts at this point though in a windex event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 BOX afd couldn't be any more boring for tomorrow night. I mean WTF..add some excitement to it. Something strange is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'm on my phone at the bar so I can't post images but when I looked at the 12z GFS/NAM looked like there could be some sort of inverted trough setting up near eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Are you at least somewhat excited for spot 1-3 despite model output? nice face plant dude , holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS seems a little dry in the lower 300mb, but goes to town near the Cape and points east it seems. It very well may be just a line of precip coming through. It's got good convergence right through 850mb or so. Not often you see a well defined kink in the 850mb height field, moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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