weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Didn't see a thread on this but tomorrow night into Monday looks rather interesting. Forecast models showing a very potent shortwave energy moving overhead. Associated with the shortwave trough moving through are some incredibly cold temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Computer models showing 500mb temps dropping to between -30C and -40C!!!!! as well as 700mb temps dropping to between -20C and -25C!!! This is about as cold as you will see here. While there is not a great deal of moisture low-level moisture does increase throughout the night and there would be enough lift in order to produce some snow...likely in the form of squalls. What is VERY impressive is how unstable we will be aloft...forecast models are showing TT's rising into the lower to near mid 60's!!!!! You virtually never see those numbers here...we can't even get that during the summer. mid-level lapse rates increase to between 8-9 C/KM...yes 8-9 C/KM...about as close to super-adiabatic as we will ever get here. Have to watch out tomorrow night for a several hour window of snow squalls with thunder...could see some pretty intense snowfall rates and a few inches of snow in a short amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Didn't see a thread on this but tomorrow night into Monday looks rather interesting. Forecast models showing a very potent shortwave energy moving overhead. Associated with the shortwave trough moving through are some incredibly cold temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Computer models showing 500mb temps dropping to between -30C and -40C!!!!! as well as 700mb temps dropping to between -20C and -25C!!! This is about as cold as you will see here. While there is not a great deal of moisture low-level moisture does increase throughout the night and there would be enough lift in order to produce some snow...likely in the form of squalls. What is VERY impressive is how unstable we will be aloft...forecast models are showing TT's rising into the lower to near mid 60's!!!!! You virtually never see those numbers here...we can't even get that during the summer. mid-level lapse rates increase to between 8-9 C/KM...yes 8-9 C/KM...about as close to super-adiabatic as we will ever get here. Have to watch out tomorrow night for a several hour window of snow squalls with thunder...could see some pretty intense snowfall rates and a few inches of snow in a short amount of time. Violently agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 excellent to bad i'll be about 120 miles north in freedom , nh how far north will this squally weather extend wiz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 excellent to bad i'll be about 120 miles north in freedom , nh how far north will this squally weather extend wiz? Not sure exactly...I just started looking at things like 30 minutes ago...I guess it really all depends on where exactly the s/w energy (clipper) tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 If we had soundings like that here in the summer there would be pants tents up and down the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 what time is this progged to begin (potentially) like 2 am mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 what time is this progged to begin (potentially) like 2 am mon I would probably think the window for the most intense action will be very short-lived...probably like between 12-3 AM...this is when the strongest instability spike occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 great wiz...i can stay up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 I wouldn't even be shocked to see some small hail, especially across eastern sections...LIs around -2C with SBcape between 200-300 J/KG is pretty sick this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I wouldn't even be shocked to see some small hail, especially across eastern sections...LIs around -2C with SBcape between 200-300 J/KG is pretty sick this time of year. assuming the data is right (very good gfs/nam agreement right now) something weird will happen. not sure what or where or how localized...but it's going to do something unusual i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 assuming the data is right (very good gfs/nam agreement right now) something weird will happen. not sure what or where or how localized...but it's going to do something unusual i think. Maybe a couple snow tors ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Maybe a couple snow tors ? yep...probably a half-dozen or so snow-wrapped EF5s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 assuming the data is right (very good gfs/nam agreement right now) something weird will happen. not sure what or where or how localized...but it's going to do something unusual i think. Yeah these numbers are just flat out sick...too bad this will occur at 1 AM when everyone is asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 THe lapse rates on Tolland tomorrow should be about 50 C/KM in this type of setup...and in West Chesterfield probably about 60-70 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I wonder if we'll see moderate to high risk and a tor hatch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I wonder if we'll see moderate to high risk and a tor hatch? I wonder if we'll see another snow day for Tolland CT ever again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Another thing that I actually forgot to mention is there could be some gusty winds within the squalls too...winds do increase aloft and a steep lapse rate environment will lead to a well mixed atmosphere. Maybe gusts of 25-35 mph possible within the squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Another thing that I actually forgot to mention is there could be some gusty winds within the squalls too...winds do increase aloft and a steep lapse rate environment will lead to a well mixed atmosphere. Maybe gusts of 25-35 mph possible within the squalls. meh gusted over 45 in CNE last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 meh gusted over 45 in CNE last nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 ridiculous Lol, are parts of that sounding absolutely unstable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol, are parts of that sounding absolutely unstable? NAM Total Totals Index: 58.83 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable GFS is just sick, might be the highest prog I have seen in Winter Total Totals Index: 62.37 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Vertical Totals Index: 32.60 C Cross Totals Index: 29.77 CK Index: 21.65 Risk: 20-40 % chance of thunderstorms Sweat Index: 433.84 Risk: Severe Thunderstorms possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Total Totals Index: 58.83 C Risk: Severe Thunderstorms probable Yeah, wow, TTs near 60 is crazy. Maybe we should keep in mind it's the NAM though and it sometimes over-does convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Yeah, wow, TTs near 60 is crazy. Maybe we should keep in mind it's the NAM though and it sometimes over-does convection. uh see my edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Srefs a little juicier for tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Can we move the timing up to 9pm-12am? Even though its likely nothing happens imby, it would be cool to be up tracking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 uh see my edit do you remember the storm 2 winters ago when we snow'd several inches (most of us i think) i was living in burlington, ma (i think it was jan) and then later that evening we had a line of strong thunderstorms cross new england. real powerful storms over snowpack that must have been extremely unstable as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 uh see my edit Lol, oh, nevermind. All systems go I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 do you remember the storm 2 winters ago when we snow'd several inches (most of us i think) i was living in burlington, ma (i think it was jan) and then later that evening we had a line of strong thunderstorms cross new england. real powerful storms over snowpack that must have been extremely unstable as well January 28, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 do you remember the storm 2 winters ago when we snow'd several inches (most of us i think) i was living in burlington, ma (i think it was jan) and then later that evening we had a line of strong thunderstorms cross new england. real powerful storms over snowpack that must have been extremely unstable as well that was last winter but that was warm sector not Windex. Severe on 2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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