bluewave Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Models backing off long range cold now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 You know its been a bad winter when the GFS is essentially showing "normal" heights (on the first image) and we're calling it "sustained cold". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Although the potential definitely is there for some more cold and perhaps 1 or 2 snow potentials in the Feb 4-15 time frame, The GEFS are once again following the classic trend of a very nice set up in the long range which becomes more realistic and less favorable as it gets closer to the 192 hour range. This is what the GEFS showed 3 days ago for February 6: In contrast, this is what the latest GEFS are showing for the same time frame. Although the western ridge is still there, the slight ridging near Greenland has been replaced by a trough and the eastern US trough is less impressive than what it was. It's still going to change from now to the short range, but it doesn't look as favorable as it did a couple of days ago. The GEFS now pushed the improvements in Greenland to the hour 324-384 hour range, showing that although we are definitely seeing some changes, the much more favorable pattern is still staying in the fantasy range for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The Euro Ensemble Mean now bring the PV down to Hudson Bay and SE Canada by 240hrs. If correct, this will support a longer period of below normal temps in mid February, than what we have seen this winter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I know bluewave, changed the title of this thread. But I wanted follow on the post about Euro Ensembles here. The models are backing of the cold air in the long range, because there not bring the PV as far south, into Hudson Bay/SE Canada as they were before. The 0z/02 Euro ensemble bring the PV over NW tip of Queebec by 192hrs, than lifts back north over Baffin Island by 240hrs. That would not support below normal temps, for more than 1 or 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No blocking, no huge PNA ridge, no real way of locking cold air in here=transient shots that last a day or two. Unless that changes I just don't see a big threat around here. Maybe some minor stuff, that's it. I guess the one positive is that the PV over Alaska moved SW to the Aleutians. In other words, bring on spring (not that it really feels that different from it now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even if the AO,NAO,EPO, or PNA indexes are favorable, we still can't get the PV out of the high lattiudes. That's problem with getting sustained cold this winter. Most of the time, it's been over Alaska,Sibera,Northern Canada, or Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even if the AO,NAO,EPO, or PNA indexes are favorable, we still can't get the PV out of the high lattiudes. That's problem with getting sustained cold this winter. Most of the time, it's been over Alaska,Sibera,Northern Canada, or Greenland. We need it over central Canada. A PV over Alaska or even the Gulf of Alaska does no good, because it only serves to flood the CONUS with stale Pacific air. We also need it to be locked there by high heights near Greenland and NE Canada. We just can't get that at all this winter, and as a result it's been horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Even if the AO,NAO,EPO, or PNA indexes are favorable, we still can't get the PV out of the high lattiudes. That's problem with getting sustained cold this winter. Most of the time, it's been over Alaska,Sibera,Northern Canada, or Greenland. The 12z GFS brings the PV south enough to affect our area. And like you said, it shows a sustained period of cold for our area, as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's been tough to go against the warmth of especially the last few years. This winter will make the top warmest winters list for NYC. February will determine the final ranking. http://www.erh.noaa....oldseasons.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The euro follows the GFS and drops the PV down next week and has pretty cold temps for the area. And for a sustained period. Not just 1-2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The euro follows the GFS and drops the PV down next week and has pretty cold temps for the area. And for a sustained period. Not just 1-2 days. Yes it does. Euro caves to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 For now. Til it happens nobody caved to anybody Yes it does. Euro caves to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 so far NYC has only 23 days out of 64 so far this winter with a minimum of 32 or lower...we will break this record of 47 days set in 2001-02 if the pattern doesn't change soon... The Record... Seasons with the least amount of min days 32 degrees or lower. min days. 47 2001-02 49 1997-98 50 1998-99 53 1982-83 54 1990-91 57 1996-97 59 1952-53 59 1972-73 60 1957-58 60 1994-95 67 2005-06 63 2006-07 64 2007-08 86 2008-09 63 2009-10 84 2010-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 6-10 day forecast for cold keeps getting modified as we get closer. 240 hr for 0z 2/8 120 hr for 0Z 2/8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 0z OP ECMWF and it's ensemble mean, has PV further north in Canada again and the pacific jet undercutting the ridge out West. Overall, the continued lack of model consistency or agreement, leads me to have low confidence in any sustained cold or major winter storms along the East Coast, during the Feb. 10-15 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 The 0z OP ECMWF and it's ensemble mean, has PV further north in Canada again and the pacific jet undercutting the ridge out West. Overall, the continued lack of model consistency or agreement, leads me to have low confidence in any sustained cold or major winter storms along the East Coast, during the Feb. 10-15 period. You know its a warm pattern when we can't get the -EPO do deliver a sustained period of cold here. It looks like the rest of the pattern is keeping the PV further north than we normally see with the -EPO. Many times in the past this pattern was able to register at least a week below normal temperatures here. I guess the winter pattern of transient cold shots for a few days than a warm up is really tough to beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Based on the trend this winter the models will continue to warm. I think we get one shot of modified arctic followed by a quick warm up.The name of the game this winter has and will continue to be the trend. No matter what the models show moving forward in the long range i would take it with a grain of salt until and if we see the magic large scale pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 12z euro brings the PV further south. Has some cold temps next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Thanks for the good news about next week with that one model. Also, today is cooler than both the mild Wed and Thurs we experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 wow, 0 line in fl, not bad with all the torching thats been around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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