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Central PA Winter 11-12 cont'd


MAG5035

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I'm def the playa hater of the year...but in this winter competition should be stout lol.

Haha between the hometown hating contest that flared up, posting Youtubes of shooting groundhogs after Phil SAW his shadow, as well as hating on any piece of credible model guidance that has any flakes in PA i'd say the competition is fierce.

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Getting there.... I'm interested to see the ensembles. And the 0z euro.

However...the whacky rex-block over the central US will wreak havoc on the models with this system until tomorrow night for us.

That's pretty close, i said in here a couple days ago not to turn a blind eye on this system. Things do seem to be getting on the same page with the Euro finally caving and sending the system east rather than just having it hang out in the plains. It seems that now it will be a battle of how much precip (if any) can press into the area against the high from the north squashing the system under PA. Also, I'd imagine we see another mildish day or two next week as we work out the warmth that builds up in southern Canada above this system courtesy of the said rex block. Otherwise, I like the convection starting to mass in Mexico and the Gulf in the mid range GFS. Certainly has the look of having the potential to bring a nice storm with a well timed phase.

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Eh....having been lectured by some on WWBB/Eastern/American several times in the past that winter is over while snow was accumulating outside my window, pardon me if I pass on the "it's over" talk. For example, I'll be surprised if we stay well below 20 inches for the season. Unrealistic weenie thinking, you say? Um, no, it's called thinking outside of emotions about snow that 99 percent of adults find bizarre and childish - A winter lower than 20 inches is rare in my local climatology.

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Eh....having been lectured by some on WWBB/Eastern/American several times in the past that winter is over while snow was accumulating outside my window, pardon me if I pass on the "it's over" talk. For example, I'll be surprised if we stay well below 20 inches for the season. Unrealistic weenie thinking, you say? Um, no, it's called thinking outside of emotions about snow that 99 percent of adults find bizarre and childish - A winter lower than 20 inches is rare in my local climatology.

You get more lake effect and clipper events up there.

Anyway.. SREFS from this morning were interesting. 12Z will be vital to see if this thing can be of any interest.

f12s63.gif

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Eh....having been lectured by some on WWBB/Eastern/American several times in the past that winter is over while snow was accumulating outside my window, pardon me if I pass on the "it's over" talk. For example, I'll be surprised if we stay well below 20 inches for the season. Unrealistic weenie thinking, you say? Um, no, it's called thinking outside of emotions about snow that 99 percent of adults find bizarre and childish - A winter lower than 20 inches is rare in my local climatology.

i remember in 1996 a lot of people were packing it in too........

See, I’m always a believer. It could be the bottom of the ninth, down one run, runners on 1st and 2nd, two outs and the batter has a full count, I’m a 100% believer, we win the game!

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I wonder if there have been any studies done on the psychology of weather weenies. I haven't seen any. Maybe it's just too complex a subject. Or simple, perhaps. :lmao:

The most fascinating study I saw on weather and psychology was how people's memories are even more inaccurate than normal when it comes to weather. Saw that when I worked at AccuWx.

I think with experience you start to notice with weather how sometimes things look great and don't work out and how you can get decent snow when things look bleak for snow.

It happens.

i remember in 1996 a lot of people were packing it in too........

See, I’m always a believer. It could be the bottom of the ninth, down one run, runners on 1st and 2nd, two outs and the batter has a full count, I’m a 100% believer, we win the game!

I kind of accept what was and don't get my hopes up or down for the rest of the way. The rest of winter could be snowless/mild or we could have a lot of posts in early March that say "wow, who would have thought back in February we would see this kind of storm"

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The most fascinating study I saw on weather and psychology was how people's memories are even more inaccurate than normal when it comes to weather. Saw that when I worked at AccuWx.

I think with experience you start to notice with weather how sometimes things look great and don't work out and how you can get decent snow when things look bleak for snow.

It happens.

I kind of accept what was and don't get my hopes up or down for the rest of the way. The rest of winter could be snowless/mild or we could have a lot of posts in early March that say "wow, who would have thought back in February we would see this kind of storm"

Yep, to me its like playing or coaching, you have to keep your emotions in check!

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That run brought significant snow into part of your viewing area.

Indeed. The nam has been pretty bad this winter outside of 48, so I've based my forecast over the last 2 days on a compromise of the GEFS/JMA/GEM/EC. It's nice to see the nam catching on to what may be an advisory event south of I-80 / Rt 322.

As I type this, the OP GFS seems to be playing along as well!

How's things in PM?

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Indeed. The nam has been pretty bad this winter outside of 48, so I've based my forecast over the last 2 days on a compromise of the GEFS/JMA/GEM/EC. It's nice to see the nam catching on to what may be an advisory event south of I-80 / Rt 322.

As I type this, the OP GFS seems to be playing along as well!

How's things in PM?

Great, editing a podcast at work currently.

Yes, I see the GFS is a good deal north. Wonder how far it will go?

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