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Central PA Winter 11-12 cont'd


MAG5035

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I guess I should note that the only major model of the 12z suite that did something differently was the normally really suppressed NOGAPs which took this weekend low from TX to the central lakes. I mean I take the Nogaps mid range handling of this complicated split flow regime about as seriously as someone that told me it was gonna rain purple squirrels..but it didn't bury this system to Bermuda like you'd think it would. And last nights run had about the same thing.

It's really funky at 500 @132 out in the plains.

Our in-house model for Thursday prints out 2-3" at UNV

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memories.....

Model output looks similar, does it not? Of course some (dgex) more than others.

But we have the huge displaced 50/50, with split flow through the Plains and strong piece of Southern branch energy undercutting it all.

Not trying to blow this up into something, just making a casual observation....if anything we can just look back and think "if only".

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Yes? No?

The 18z GFS @ 108 is kinda close, but SE Canada is much different than it was in 03. However, the phase is really close to happening on the GFS.

With the nao not strongly negative, I can still see this moving to the north. There's sufficient spacing (as currently modeled) between this storm and the kicker to allow this to turn up.

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