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Central PA Winter 11-12 cont'd


MAG5035

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The mets aren't posting which is never a good sign...neither is Zac.

I want to know what happened to the big EURO storm which was forecast for about 8 days from now? Is anything like it still there?

The same thing that has happened to every storm that has been forecast on the models 5+ days out. Nothing because it doesn't exist.

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The mets aren't posting which is never a good sign...neither is Zac.

I want to know what happened to the big EURO storm which was forecast for about 8 days from now? Is anything like it still there?

The same thing that has happened to every storm that has been forecast on the models 5+ days out. Nothing because it doesn't exist.

I think that was from something called the "control run" of the Euro....which is the Desperation Tool Du Jour of the freaking out weenie.

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Agreed....I guess I was off base with 2m temps. I thought he was talking like light snowfall as in an inch or two. Not light snowfall as in wet ground with a light snow.

yeah....not much at all.

I don't know why I look at models every run....this year they've swung wildly and this upcoming pattern is so active so they will keep changing. I guess entertainment of some sort.

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Agreed....I guess I was off base with 2m temps. I thought he was talking like light snowfall as in an inch or two. Not light snowfall as in wet ground with a light snow.

CTP's still calling for an inch or two over the mountains, and up to an inch in the LSV, although they do mention much of it will melt. Don't see why we should completely write this off-there could be something on the ground for some of us, even if it's gone in 12 hours.

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Hey...18z nam trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat for thursday for us now with a secondary low forming. Not sure what that means for snow potential but it beats the primary-only through the lakes scenario.

It does kinda pop a very weak low offshore..but it'd be too late to make much of a difference. Main influence would still be the primary going nw of the area. One thing i did notice was the NAM was a bit chillier, making for a possible wet snowfall for the north-central/northeast. Those finer details will likely get more honed in the next couple days, but barring a major track shift (say somehow forcing the low under PA instead of to Erie)... it's a pretty unfavorable setup without some decent cold in place.

To answer your earlier question about the Euro showing a big storm near the D8 range.. that showed up a couple days ago on the Euro control run, which is from what I can gather...an operational run somehow based off of the Euro ensembles (but not an ensemble mean). Not sure of it's track record or really how it incorporates ensemble data, I did see Will (orh_wxman) comment it on being a worse euro op fwiw. But to cut to the chase, that run ran a gulf bomb inside thru eastern NC to sub 980 on top of Ocean City, MD before fading SE of the benchmark. It was a run that smacked all of PA but particularly the SE 1/4 of PA especially good. So yea... thats why the control run has become all the rage in the last day or so. Of course it disappeared the next run and I don't believe it has fully showed back up. HOWEVER, that's not to dispel the potential around that timeframe (Feb 19ish). What is evident is that models do have a gulf wave.. The GFS of course keeps it squashed while the Canadian fades a better but still fairly weak low off the SC/NC coast. The Euro was the most wound up and closest call today getting a 996 low to just off the coast of Nags Head. Snuck some light precip into some of PA but ultimately wasn't enough. For anyone interested the Euro control was very similar to the normal Euro op. We're going to need a good phase to make a storm out of this, which is certainly achieveable in the pattern going forward..but phasing a good storm hasn't been this winters forte. But given the timeframe and typical trends, I don't mind seeing a gulf storm too far southeast right now.

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It does kinda pop a very weak low offshore..but it'd be too late to make much of a difference. Main influence would still be the primary going nw of the area. One thing i did notice was the NAM was a bit chillier, making for a possible wet snowfall for the north-central/northeast. Those finer details will likely get more honed in the next couple days, but barring a major track shift (say somehow forcing the low under PA instead of to Erie)... it's a pretty unfavorable setup without some decent cold in place.

To answer your earlier question about the Euro showing a big storm near the D8 range.. that showed up a couple days ago on the Euro control run, which is from what I can gather...an operational run somehow based off of the Euro ensembles (but not an ensemble mean). Not sure of it's track record or really how it incorporates ensemble data, I did see Will (orh_wxman) comment it on being a worse euro op fwiw. But to cut to the chase, that run ran a gulf bomb inside thru eastern NC to sub 980 on top of Ocean City, MD before fading SE of the benchmark. It was a run that smacked all of PA but particularly the SE 1/4 of PA especially good. So yea... thats why the control run has become all the rage in the last day or so. Of course it disappeared the next run and I don't believe it has fully showed back up. HOWEVER, that's not to dispel the potential around that timeframe (Feb 19ish). What is evident is that models do have a gulf wave.. The GFS of course keeps it squashed while the Canadian fades a better but still fairly weak low off the SC/NC coast. The Euro was the most wound up and closest call today getting a 996 low to just off the coast of Nags Head. Snuck some light precip into some of PA but ultimately wasn't enough. For anyone interested the Euro control was very similar to the normal Euro op. We're going to need a good phase to make a storm out of this, which is certainly achieveable in the pattern going forward..but phasing a good storm hasn't been this winters forte. But given the timeframe and typical trends, I don't mind seeing a gulf storm too far southeast right now.

Indeed. A gulf storm moving off the carolina coast 6 days out is not a bad thing to have at this point. The NAO is not in a phase that would completely squash this thing, so fellow weenies out there need to chill and watch things unfold over the next 5 days.

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