hckyplayer8 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Huge difference in 2m temps on the ARW and NMM for 18z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z nam gives lancaster .4 of precip...2-4 looks good right now, could be a nice small event. Link? I've been trying to find decent graphical data for Lancaster, like coolwx's NCEP time-series graphs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Link? I've been trying to find decent graphical data for Lancaster, like coolwx's NCEP time-series graphs. it's not graphical, i just read the text sounding for KLNS at http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z canadian for the next week storm...feels like this is going to be our first major threat this season.(not saying it's going to happen but seems we've even lacked model porn this year ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 12z NAM is saying 3.5 to 4" at MDT, it just keeps getting better wow 3.9" on nam where did that come from? this is getting into bread, eggs, beer and TP mode now..lol gfs is at .9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 it's not graphical, i just read the text sounding for KLNS at http://www.wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Thanks, that works too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Can someone give me a heads up on timing of this event? We have plans Saturday evening for Valentine's ... I love snow but I'll be damned if it gets in the way of sweet lovin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Can someone give me a heads up on timing of this event? We have plans Saturday evening for Valentine's ... I love snow but I'll be damned if it gets in the way of sweet lovin'! i am no expert, but looks like 2nd part is 10-11ish Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Gotta think the NAM is too wet. It's the only model I have seen with the deformation so far West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Can someone give me a heads up on timing of this event? We have plans Saturday evening for Valentine's ... I love snow but I'll be damned if it gets in the way of sweet lovin'! Sat evening into the night it looks like. You guys probably won't get much from the front, but if you have 2" or so from tonight it might be a bit icy on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Gotta think the NAM is too wet. It's the only model I have seen with the deformation so far West. Guess you didnt see rgem or ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Guess you didnt see rgem or ukmet. All of which are further East than the farthest West NAM. Your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It makes sense that something big happens next weekend. Many mets have not only circled that period of time as having potential, but there are also indications that the pattern flips thereafter, and big storms are often a table setter for that change. Who gets snow (if a storm happens) is anyone's guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Can someone give me a heads up on timing of this event? We have plans Saturday evening for Valentine's ... I love snow but I'll be damned if it gets in the way of sweet lovin'! We're going to the Philips Hotel for dinner Saturday night in Philipsburg; so I am sort of wishing it's over here by Sat eve. Of course we will contend with drifting no doubt up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Hmmm..the .1 on the GFS or the .1 on the NAM...which one should I believe hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 All of which are further East than the farthest West NAM. Your point? Rgem is not east unless you mean by maybe a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RUC is nice http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2012021016&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 RUC is nice http://ruc.noaa.gov/...omain=t3&wjet=1 That is nice, but is it very reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 According to Horst, conditions this weekend are "grossly anomalous," and that's when models are at their worst. He also told his students to expect some type of "surprise element" to manifest that the models miss, based on their track record with anomalous conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Rgem is not east unless you mean by maybe a mile. Okay. I'll give you the RGEM (basically because it has the hr by hr slots that validates your statement) but the UK, ECM and GFS are all East. I'll take them over the GGEM and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 That is nice, but is it very reliable? It is a Hi Res short range model. Should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 It is a Hi Res short range model. Should be. when is your 1st call map coming out Zak? or do you have posted on Facebook already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 when is your 1st call map coming out Zak? or do you have posted on Facebook already? Working on it right now. lol. Will be out in about 1-2 hrs. on site and Facebook and here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 PIT has advisories up for much of their area and warnings on their side of the Laurels. Makes me think CTP will follow suit at least for W/NW parts and the Laurels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 First Guesses IPT: less than 1" MDT: 1 to 2 UNV: 1 to 2 JST: 2 to 4 AOO: 2 to 3 HGR: 1 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Working on it right now. lol. Will be out in about 1-2 hrs. on site and Facebook and here ok good. That way i can see it before i had to the PIAA state wrestling championship (Teams) at Hershey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Better check out the new NAM...cuts the precip. in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Issued at: 3:09 PM EST 2/10/12, expires at: 11:15 PM EST 2/10/12 Winter weather advisory in effect from 4 am to 7 pm est saturday, The NWS in state college has issued a winter weather advisory for snow, which is in effect from 4 am to 7 pm est Saturday. Locations, northwest mountains and laurel highlands. Hazard types, snow. Accumulations, 2 to 4 inches of snow. Timing, late tonight through Saturday. Impacts, difficult travel conditions due to reduced visibility and snow accumulations. Gusty winds combined with temperatures falling into the single digits and teens will produce wind chills below zero Saturday night. Winds, northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts between 30 and 40 mph. Temperatures, in the 20s, falling into the single digits and teens Saturday night. Visibilities, below one-half mile at times in heavy snow showers and brief squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Ok here we go. Could see some surprises in this one. Especially cause the upper level energy Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2012 Share Posted February 10, 2012 Better check out the new NAM...cuts the precip. in half. It's 18Z no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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