MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 CTP snowmap reflects the depiction i've seen from the NAM and also Euro to a degree with the southeast PA snow area associated with the developing wave and the NW snowfall associated with arctic frontal passage staying separate and making for a corridor of not much snow thru the central counties.. i'll call it about 3/16ths of a flake for wsptwx. 09 SREFs show the same deal. With this type of setup overall this is clearly SNE's storm to lose really given the strong arctic push is liable to fire the low nearer to the Gulf Stream instead of a coastal hugger and send it toward the benchmark. GFS/GGEM still looks like its probably firing the low too far offshore, but it'll likely hone in closer soon. Not the best setup for PA, but if we can get somewhat better/quicker interaction between features we might be able to send a more widespread shield across PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thanks....figured I'd have fun with our Willamsport friend, poor snowless bastard. So, why is NWS CTP so bullish on the snow this weekend? That was a CLASSIC!! We are pretty snowless this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 CTP snowmap reflects the depiction i've seen from the NAM and also Euro to a degree with the southeast PA snow area associated with the developing wave and the NW snowfall associated with arctic frontal passage staying separate and making for a corridor of not much snow thru the central counties.. i'll call it about 3/16ths of a flake for wsptwx. 09 SREFs show the same deal. With this type of setup overall this is clearly SNE's storm to lose really given the strong arctic push is liable to fire the low nearer to the Gulf Stream instead of a coastal hugger and send it toward the benchmark. GFS/GGEM still looks like its probably firing the low too far offshore, but it'll likely hone in closer soon. Not the best setup for PA, but if we can get somewhat better/quicker interaction between features we might be able to send a more widespread shield across PA. For me it depends on how much of the arctic band makes it. I'm in that in between zone where we could get hit pretty good or it dies out before it gets to Port Matilda. Starting to get kind of interested in the longer range...am19psu dropped a hint to me about next weekend on Twitter. Just to watch that storm. But, that's the equivalent of years away this winter. See what happens this weekend. My dopey prediction of 30+ for Jan. 15 on needs all the help it can get.....I need 19 more inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 That was a CLASSIC!! We are pretty snowless this year. 8.9....we're at 15.9. I think someone needs to commission a study on Williamsport and the Chicken Capital to find out if there is a connection between chicken feathers, Little League baseball, and lack of snow. Anyway, one thing this winter's showing me - it's really, really hard to pull off under 20 inches of snow here. I was looking at past winters, and that's a rare feat indeed. I shouldn't talk right now, but I don't think we are below 20 for the season here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Jamie the only difference is the CC cashed in on 2010 while we we're too far north for the fun. I think Potter had a great summary of why we're a terrible snow region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Jamie has been declared the winner of this thread. This line from the KAVP CLI from yesterday says it all regarding snowfall: SINCE DEC 1 5.6 24.4 -18.8 28.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Jamie the only difference is the CC cashed in on 2010 while we we're too far north for the fun. I think Potter had a great summary of why we're a terrible snow region. I don't know what else to tell you other than move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Jamie has been declared the winner of this thread. This line from the KAVP CLI from yesterday says it all regarding snowfall: SINCE DEC 1 5.6 24.4 -18.8 28.9 I don't know what's crazier, -18.8 or getting 9.1 from the October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 8.9....we're at 15.9. I think someone needs to commission a study on Williamsport and the Chicken Capital to find out if there is a connection between chicken feathers, Little League baseball, and lack of snow. Anyway, one thing this winter's showing me - it's really, really hard to pull off under 20 inches of snow here. I was looking at past winters, and that's a rare feat indeed. I shouldn't talk right now, but I don't think we are below 20 for the season here. to many chicken fingers served at the LLWS maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 8.9....we're at 15.9. I think someone needs to commission a study on Williamsport and the Chicken Capital to find out if there is a connection between chicken feathers, Little League baseball, and lack of snow. Anyway, one thing this winter's showing me - it's really, really hard to pull off under 20 inches of snow here. I was looking at past winters, and that's a rare feat indeed. I shouldn't talk right now, but I don't think we are below 20 for the season here. We still have over a month of realistic snow chances. After saturday we should be within 3.5" or so of 20...if we don't get another 3.5" in a month I'd be quite surprised. Kind of depressing to look at CTPs map, but really we're too far north for the first and too far south and east for the second event. Not that it can't change for the better but I won't complain seeing as how places to both our north and south aren't doing much better relative to average than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I miss you guys No community in the MA subforum, just a bunch of angry weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I am, to Villanova this summer. Watch, it'll be all inside cutters lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I miss you guys No community in the MA subforum, just a bunch of angry weenies. Hahah that sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I miss you guys No community in the MA subforum, just a bunch of angry weenies. well, we told you you are welcome in here at any time...so, stop back more often! and, we are the best sub- forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Hahah that sounds about right. They've gotten 5-10% of average for winter and winter's already more than half over. As a snowlover I feel their pain...we've had about a third of our average so far and people in this area (including me) are still disappointed with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 looks like our temps will be below freezing when most of the precip is here.At least thats the way it looks to me anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 8.9....we're at 15.9. I think someone needs to commission a study on Williamsport and the Chicken Capital to find out if there is a connection between chicken feathers, Little League baseball, and lack of snow. Anyway, one thing this winter's showing me - it's really, really hard to pull off under 20 inches of snow here. I was looking at past winters, and that's a rare feat indeed. I shouldn't talk right now, but I don't think we are below 20 for the season here. hmm I thought you were closer to me than that.. or is that UNV's official tally? Counting the 4" Oct. 29th, one of the Jan LES events delivering that 2.5 in less than an hour squall plus 0.5 more from snow showers, the 9.2" total from the two events Jan 20/21, approx 3 inches worth of bs snow from all other les this season and yesterdays 2"... that somehow weenies out to about 21". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 I miss you guys No community in the MA subforum, just a bunch of angry weenies. Ahh Westminster, MD is still plenty close enough to be part of the greater Central PA region haha. I guess as a weenie i'd be mad too, I left DC monday afternoon and it was 55 and i had windows down and sunroof open.. washed the car the next day and had to even scrub off a few mosquitoes off the front bumper. Felt great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 They've gotten 5-10% of average for winter and winter's already more than half over. As a snowlover I feel their pain...we've had about a third of our average so far and people in this area (including me) are still disappointed with this winter. They had like 70-90" in 09-10 they can deal with a less than snowy winter one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 They had like 70-90" in 09-10 they can deal with a less than snowy winter one year. Memories are short. I remember some of them saying they'd put up with years of crappy winters after that epic season. I envy that they saw more snow in one season than I'll probably ever see up here (at least during the next 3 years). But I don't envy that they can get almost completely shutout during crappy winters. And MAG, I bet Jamie got more than 15.9" since that is indeed UNV's total. The late Jan storms in particular he made out well in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 For me it depends on how much of the arctic band makes it. I'm in that in between zone where we could get hit pretty good or it dies out before it gets to Port Matilda. Starting to get kind of interested in the longer range...am19psu dropped a hint to me about next weekend on Twitter. Just to watch that storm. But, that's the equivalent of years away this winter. See what happens this weekend. My dopey prediction of 30+ for Jan. 15 on needs all the help it can get.....I need 19 more inches Euro ensembles are very interesting next weekend. Sunday to be specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 They've gotten 5-10% of average for winter and winter's already more than half over. As a snowlover I feel their pain...we've had about a third of our average so far and people in this area (including me) are still disappointed with this winter. We're at 15.9 and should be at around 27. Lame winter. Still has had a few nice moments but overall lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Well atleast this weekend threat is pretty much dead. 0z will not change for the better. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2012 Author Share Posted February 9, 2012 Why? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hmm I thought you were closer to me than that.. or is that UNV's official tally? Counting the 4" Oct. 29th, one of the Jan LES events delivering that 2.5 in less than an hour squall plus 0.5 more from snow showers, the 9.2" total from the two events Jan 20/21, approx 3 inches worth of bs snow from all other les this season and yesterdays 2"... that somehow weenies out to about 21". Yeah, that sounds right for me - 21. Memories are short. I remember some of them saying they'd put up with years of crappy winters after that epic season. I envy that they saw more snow in one season than I'll probably ever see up here (at least during the next 3 years). But I don't envy that they can get almost completely shutout during crappy winters. And MAG, I bet Jamie got more than 15.9" since that is indeed UNV's total. The late Jan storms in particular he made out well in. I didn't keep my Google doc going this year so probably about 20 or so. Euro ensembles are very interesting next weekend. Sunday to be specific. Yeah, that's what I am hearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just my opinion, this winter has made me very pessimistic Well the 12z GFS was pretty nice for you guys, and the 18z wasn't too bad either. I would think a general 1 to 3 inch snowfall looks likely Friday night into Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wasn't an anaylsis, was an opinion.....I'll be the first to admit I was a FOO if 0z models change their direction, just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thank you for your analysis.................. Wow. I'm stunned. That may be the most heinous thing that Blizzard's ever said. This really is becoming the PHB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Thank you for your analysis.................. I'll add that the 18z NAM cut accumulation almost in half for KMDT, from 0.17ish to under 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I think the post was directed at the claim that 0z won't change anything for the better. I believe we all noticed the cut in precipitation but to just say "0z won't change anything for my personal benefit" with no evidence or even an opinion outside of "this winter has me butthurt" seems a might inappropriate. I can see how this would upset meteorologists, forecasters, and atmospheric science majors like Blizzard92. Just my .02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.