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Central PA Winter 11-12 cont'd


MAG5035

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That map doesn't look too bad imo. Maybe nudge things north a tad and call the 3+ area 2-4.

Haha was just messin with those guys

Yea I think a call of a general 1-3 seems to be a fairly safe call, with highest amounts in the high ground more in the west. I'd prolly take JBs 1-3 zone and narrow it a bit on both north and south sides. New NAM does put the somewhat higher precip right along the m/d line again..as does new GFS and 21z SREFs (looking better than 15z). Looks similar to Sat's lil event, which ended up doing quite well in the areas that saw it. I'm not ready to pull trigger on any widespread 3 or so amounts but perhaps the timing could be better with this system given that the precip looks to be starting to roll in late day instead of right in the middle of the day. The warm air/ground temps certainly precluded any accums in the areas that saw more moderate snow outside of higher elevations and specifically that stripe of heavy snowfall that set up in the south Saturday.

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Haha was just messin with those guys

Yea I think a call of a general 1-3 seems to be a fairly safe call, with highest amounts in the high ground more in the west. I'd prolly take JBs 1-3 zone and narrow it a bit on both north and south sides. New NAM does put the somewhat higher precip right along the m/d line again..as does new GFS and 21z SREFs (looking better than 15z). Looks similar to Sat's lil event, which ended up doing quite well in the areas that saw it. I'm not ready to pull trigger on any widespread 3 or so amounts but perhaps the timing could be better with this system given that the precip looks to be starting to roll in late day instead of right in the middle of the day. The warm air/ground temps certainly precluded any accums in the areas that saw more moderate snow outside of higher elevations and specifically that stripe of heavy snowfall that set up in the south Saturday.

It wouldn't surprise me to see flakes starting to fall in the morning over here, maybe as early as 9am. The GFS wants to spit out some qpf early, and it usually has a good handle on the timing of overrunning.

You agree?

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It wouldn't surprise me to see flakes starting to fall in the morning over here, maybe as early as 9am. The GFS wants to spit out some qpf early, and it usually has a good handle on the timing of overrunning.

You agree?

Hmm does seem that precips a bit further along than what the NAM had it, being better placed at 6 hrs with the GFS, so perhaps could end up a bit faster. Not sure bout 9am but maybe more like around 11am-noon when some of the western high ground could start seein some flurries. Somerset looks like they could be the winner again with this event.

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annnd now if you'll excuse me.... I have to go home and put some water in buck nasty's mommas dish.... good evenin

Called in a bomb threat to the special olympics man...

Of course that was Beautiful talking. On the weekends he does stunts for little richard in gay movies.

I thank god for giving you all so much and me so little. I hate you, I hate you, I don't even know you and I hate your guts. I hope all the better things in life happen to you and only you. And as I take a sip of my soda, which i'm sure someone spit in...

Lol love that.

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