pawatch Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Ladybugs can be outside even if we have a normal or cold winter. All they need is a brief mild spell to rustle them from their hibernation. Even several days of 40s can do it depending on where they set up for the winter. The reason why the ladybug was trying to get into your house was it was looking for a place with stable temps as opposed to what it was dealing with out in the "wild". Unlike the average weather weenie, it's smart enough to know that there's a good chance winter isn't over. Jamie I agree...I don't think winter is over. I think Ole man winter probably has a storm or 2 he is saving for us. Not a whole lot of precipitation showing for me in the next week. This for everyone wishing for 2 feet of snow in the near future. It's the best I can do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 rofl at that pick! Classic humor right there. I really hope this MJO can save our winter. If 8-1-2 can't do it, nothing will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Went to bed last night here in Pittsburgh with none of the media outlets forecasting snow today. Woke up to a steady, moist snowfall. Storm Outlook by Eric Horst from Millersville University: http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 it has the classic look and feel outside though............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Jamie..even you have to admit this winter has been a complete nightmare. It may have been better for those who cashed in on the clipper, but we're still easily in single digits out here lol. Of course - who has said it's been a great winter? My point's been simple - now pay attention, I'll even bold it for you so you won't miss it because at this point I really don't know what else to do - we really don't know how Feb-March will play out...could be little additional snow or could be a few decent to good storms yet to come. Do you understand? I hope. How can I say this? Simple: - experience in past winters being horrible and snowless but having a few good storms late.....and also having winters that just ended lame end-to-end. So who knows what will happen. - I don't make forecasts based on emotions that you guys should have lost once you got past adolescence. Face it - pouting and throwing a fit over lack of snow is childish and immature. Declaring the winter 100 percent done over a single model run is the kinda stuff the target audience for Clearosil does. I also don't think it's a good thing to wish cast a storm either...that doesn't help. Sometimes it ain't meant to be. Hang in there.....it's not worth getting upset over. And it can make you look really foolish when you forecast based on that emotion. And if we do get a storm....this is for everyone......for God's sake don't spend most of it on here talking about how it doesn't matter the winter still sucks. Go outside and enjoy it. You'll feel better. Jamie I agree...I don't think winter is over. I think Ole man winter probably has a storm or 2 he is saving for us. Not a whole lot of precipitation showing for me in the next week. This for everyone wishing for 2 feet of snow in the near future. It's the best I can do! LOL that never gets old. I don't expect the models can be take literally this year. It's more about trends and figuring out the hints. They constantly change. Looks like I am going to at least see a bit of light snow today. I had no idea of that Monday, I figured this weekend was sunny and mild. The clipper surprise in January wasn't anywhere near here 48 hours prior. There were a few good looking situations that didn't pan out. Some storms that showed snow that were cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Jamie..even you have to admit this winter has been a complete nightmare. It may have been better for those who cashed in on the clipper, but we're still easily in single digits out here lol. If it weren't for the October snowstorm, we'd only have about 7-8 inches for the winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I don't care about the snow, the problem is it hasn't been cold much at all. We've had in total probably around 5 days of below-freezing highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Pretty warm lower levels currently but the air is fairly dry. If precip. does come down, would expect temps to sink into the 30's , like the Western part of the state and any rain to change over. Last nights long range ECMWF has back bringing the PV so far South. Neutral troff through the MRV at 192. Tad too late for much of us but New England looks to cash in that run, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 How was that emotional?? The lol implies that I'm not taking this too seriously. We all know we can't control the weather, in fact..if anything this winter has been great for allowing way more time for outdoor stuff. I was just pointing out if you like snow and live in NCPA this winter has been an abject failure. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 How was that emotional?? The lol implies that I'm not taking this too seriously. We all know we can't control the weather, in fact..if anything this winter has been great for allowing way more time for outdoor stuff. I was just pointing out if you like snow and live in NCPA this winter has been an abject failure. That is all. C'mon.....you know what I mean. Canceling winter in early Feb, being CERTAIN it won't snow again, etc......I've seen it for years on these forums. It's easy to pick up on. Easier than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 I'm in Carliske and it's snowing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Light snow here in Strasburg, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Snowing at a pretty good clip now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 C'mon.....you know what I mean. Canceling winter in early Feb, being CERTAIN it won't snow again, etc......I've seen it for years on these forums. It's easy to pick up on. Easier than you think. Don't worry, 40 years from now we will likely be at LEAST .5 to 1C wamer than we are now. Hearing winter being canceled is only going to get worse in the future, bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Dumping snow here. Shocking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Guys please check out my site. You are going to be impressed. http://www.wix.com/briskozak/hwpc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Don't worry, 40 years from now we will likely be at LEAST .5 to 1C wamer than we are now. Hearing winter being canceled is only going to get worse in the future, bank on it. We don't know what the next 12 months will bring. Claiming to know what the next several decades will bring is laughable. But you are right on one thing, no matter what happens, you will have the global warming group saying its all because of their theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Guys please check out my site. You are going to be impressed. http://www.wix.com/briskozak/hwpc Balling. Great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Balling. Great job. Thanks hckyplayer, I'm not Zak but he and I work on that site so I figured I'd send my gratitude over Glad you like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 Jamie..even you have to admit this winter has been a complete nightmare. It may have been better for those who cashed in on the clipper, but we're still easily in single digits out here lol. Not denying how crappy this winters been, but It's been worse..and recently. Williamsport didn't receive their first inch of snow until Jan 30 during the winter of 06-07, coming pretty close to the record latest of Feb 4, 1995. Harrisburg didn't see their first inch until Groundhog Day. People seem to forget how futile winter 06-07 was here until the V-day storm started the major 2nd half comeback that everyone of course remembers more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Balling. Great job. Thanks man. A few more things to add but, a lot of work went into that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Thanks hckyplayer, I'm not Zak but he and I work on that site so I figured I'd send my gratitude over Glad you like it. Great layout. Eye catching and easy to navigate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 4, 2012 Author Share Posted February 4, 2012 It is really snowing hard here, I'm hanging on for dear life on the edge of the precip. Too bad that air temps are above freezing and the ground is pretty much thawed out, cuz its taking the high intensity just to start a bit of a coating in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Guys please check out my site. You are going to be impressed. http://www.wix.com/briskozak/hwpc nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 From earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 No snow for me. All the heavier returns sinking South of me and the lighter stuff weakening from downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 We don't know what the next 12 months will bring. Claiming to know what the next several decades will bring is laughable. But you are right on one thing, no matter what happens, you will have the global warming group saying its all because of their theory. Weather trends and climate trends aren't the same.We know what the climate will do with higher CO2 concentrations. The natural weather variations will remain cyclical but the added forcing from CO2 gives a positve trend in global temperatures. We have more CO2 in the atmosphere now then we have the past 5,000 years. We have seen natural CO2 variations increase since the beginning of the industrial revolution. AGW might be a theory, but so is evolution. AGW is just as credible as evolution, the science is pretty darn convincing. A doubling of CO2 is 3.7W/m2. Humans are completely responsible for the warming since the industrial revolution. Arctic sea ice remains at record lows and will continue to fall as global temperatures increase. This reduction in albedo plus added methane from the arctic tundra will add to the warming from increased CO2 amounts in the future. Cold temperatures and snow will still happen, but will become increasing fewer in occurances as long as CO2 concentrations increase. People love to claim natural causes for the warming, but solar forcing has reduced in the last 10 years, but global temperatures continue to increase. I believe 2010 was the warmest on record. Night time temperatures will be the most affected and the data gathered agrees. I could go on about AGW, it is very serious and I just don't understand how anyone could ignore the warming, and it isn't solar related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 Weather trends and climate trends aren't the same.We know what the climate will do with higher CO2 concentrations. The natural weather variations will remain cyclical but the added forcing from CO2 gives a positve trend in global temperatures. We have more CO2 in the atmosphere now then we have the past 5,000 years. We have seen natural CO2 variations increase since the beginning of the industrial revolution. AGW might be a theory, but so is evolution. AGW is just as credible as evolution, the science is pretty darn convincing. A doubling of CO2 is 3.7W/m2. Humans are completely responsible for the warming since the industrial revolution. Arctic sea ice remains at record lows and will continue to fall as global temperatures increase. This reduction in albedo plus added methane from the arctic tundra will add to the warming from increased CO2 amounts in the future. Cold temperatures and snow will still happen, but will become increasing fewer in occurances as long as CO2 concentrations increase. People love to claim natural causes for the warming, but solar forcing has reduced in the last 10 years, but global temperatures continue to increase. I believe 2010 was the warmest on record. Night time temperatures will be the most affected and the data gathered agrees. I could go on about AGW, it is very serious and I just don't understand how anyone could ignore the warming, and it isn't solar related. The problem is the science has become clouded by certain people who wanted to push an agenda. Running commercials about the poor polar bears not being able to find ice isn't exactly science. Then even worse, they make some bold predictions that ultimately fail and proceed to look like idiots when they waffle around. Finally; for how the old the Earth is, records dating back to the 19th century doesn't exactly envelope a wide set of data. How do we know the Earth hasn't been through this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 The problem is the science has become clouded by certain people who wanted to push an agenda. Running commercials about the poor polar bears not being able to find ice isn't exactly science. Then even worse, they make some bold predictions that ultimately fail and proceed to look like idiots when they waffle around. Finally; for how the old the Earth is, records dating back to the 19th century doesn't exactly envelope a wide set of data. How do we know the Earth hasn't been through this before? You're right, there are people with political agendas, but a few bad apples spoil the bunch. The majority of scientist aren't alarmist and try to get the data out there for the public. Data goes way back farther than the the 19th century, not necessarily alot of first hand accounts but ice core proxies and many more proxies. We know what the climate has done going back as far as some of the geologic eons, epochs, and eras. The thing is the climate has been warmer, way warmer. That isn't the point, the point is how we are warming and the rate at which we are warming isn't normal "geologically speaking" . I have taken a few climatology classes at Penn St. and we had the chance to see how the climate w as back millions of years ago by analysing some of the data sets. CO2 amounts were higher in geologic past, but they were naturally increased at normal rates over millions of years. The rate at which we are currently warming is alarming, and could have major implications for many species. The rate at which we are warming is due to the burning of fossil fuels, think about it. We are buring carbon and fossil fuels many times faster than it took to create it. Granite we are warming "only" .5 to 1C a century, but add that to a thousand years or longer time frame and that amount doesn't seem so tiny after all. These warming spells in the past occured over much greater time spans. Plus the whole argument about, "well places are seeing and increase in snowfall amounts" This is true to a certain extend, this is possible because in a warming planet there is an increased amount of water vapor so you will have more precipation that falls. Until the temperature threshold is crossed, places will still see snow and cold, but as global temperatures increase, the likelyhood or occurances will steadily decrease. Also I hear agruments about, " Well Alaska is seeing record cold temperatures" This is true and is likely a -3 standard deviation event, but in statistics with a positively increasing trend will see less of these -3 standard deviation events in the future. The statistic tail will increase towards the positive standard deviation events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 4, 2012 Share Posted February 4, 2012 About an inch here in shippensburg. Now my house in greencastle is under the gun. Just heavy heavy snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.