TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is the first real threat in a long, long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the NAM is warm in ENE I'm sure if our friends to the NE check soundings, they won't like what they see any more than we like what we see sure, they'll do better, but it won't be as it looks at first blush imho....understand I haven't looked at anyone's soundings, just the 2m temp maps off NCEP so maybe I'll be proved wrong Its a wet snow bomb for them... Will and Arnold and COastal have been all over it.... it would be expected after barely any snow down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This place is groundhog day. every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hitting all these bl problems in late jan and early feb kinda goes against conventional wisdom in these parts. Even with hp's around the lakes and ca/ny area, we still can't really cool down. Is it the lack of snowcover? It's not like the cold air isn't aloft because it is. we keep battling ground temps and it seems odd. This time of year is easy to get cool seasonal air at the surface but it's just not around even when hp placements would argue against it. Maybe ocean temps? Probably a better graph or map but looking at these temps off the coast they are quite a bit above normal. http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/catl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Look i agree cool bl temps is an anamolous issue with what we would typically argue is a good set-up. However, it is a bit suspect that we would be that warm (as depicted). Granted we have to wait to see if other guidance even continues the trend, and even thouggh they likely will as it has been a large trend over the past few days, this winter thats no guarantee. Overall, that weak sfc low shouldnt be enough to screw us that much, we need the pv to be displaced a bit southeast of its current location, and hope that low further weakens and assists will the proper flow giving us the n/nw wind. Regardless, there is some snow and the layer is moist with cold air prevailing at all other levels. Its interesting nonetheless, and our game isnt over all the way yet, not a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 let's not forget folks we were 36 or 48 hrs. ahead of yesterday's system and the NAM did the same thing with +.25" qpf and cold BL temps (colder than what it is showing for us now) and we know how that worked as much as I hope we see something, one can't believe the NAM at this range (or any range for that matter this winter) I don't think most of us are forgetting. I put several caveats that its the NAM. But when we're on a weather board, sometimes people just like to discuss weather and models? If the GFS/Euro start amping up, then we can't just toss out "oh, it's the NAM". I think most sensible people on here know that the NAM is terrible. But if it shows something interesting, people are still going to talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is the first real threat in a long, long time. for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Its a wet snow bomb for them... Will and Arnold and COastal have been all over it.... it would be expected after barely any snow down here I've read their thread, but soundings will tell the story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Maybe ocean temps? Probably a better graph or map but looking at these temps off the coast they are quite a bit above normal. http://www.nodc.noaa.../cwtg/catl.html Yeah, if it was summer; the ocean would be bathwater temperature. It has really made it hard down here with BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 for New England. It has the possibility of actually dropping accumulation here... like at least minor not a dusting.. i consider that a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Bob, I can honestly say I've never seen a winter like this where our problem has been BL temps with every system, starting back in OCT; yeah, I could understand that one, but not, as you say, late JAN-early FEB Exactly. When you break it down it's a head scratcher. Yesterday is a perfect example of wtf. Vort passage near rich during the first week of feb and we rain most of the day? I can totally understand when stuff passes to the north and west or even a dying primary / coastal transfer. Those systems not only typically suck at the surface but there are all kinds of issues up to and above 850. We are in abolute prime time climo winter and we have a perfect column except for the last 1k.....on multiple occasions? It's like a bad joke or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is the first real threat in a long, long time. For New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm thoroughly surprised on how this event has turned around. I made a forecast yesterday about the passing of an arctic front and sct. snow showers and now the NAM pulls this 12z run out of the woodwork (almost) with a weak miller A. I'm breaking out the Kocin book! Anything from the Book of Weenies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't think most of us are forgetting. I put several caveats that its the NAM. But when we're on a weather board, sometimes people just like to discuss weather and models? If the GFS/Euro start amping up, then we can't just toss out "oh, it's the NAM". I think most sensible people on here know that the NAM is terrible. But if it shows something interesting, people are still going to talk about it. no, I know Randy, but it's almost evil how it shows essentially, if not virtually, the same type of forecast for us as it did for yesterday we wait for the Euro is all we can do and folly with the rest of the models I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 totally agree. but, for example, do we need 7 worthless posts in 15 minutes that add nothing to the discussion other than "I hope it trends better" over and over by the same person? in the banter thread, sure. but in a thread people are using to find out fact-based information? I think not. then don't read them and/or go to a different site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Yeah, if it was summer; the ocean would be bathwater temperature. It has really made it hard down here with BL issues. I can see that with areas like the delmarva, coastal nj and maybe philly but not areas west of 95 in these parts. I've been watching suface flow because it's crossed my mind but generally speaking the bl issues don't seem tied to that with the recent events. Haven't really had an easterly component and when there has been, it's been very weak at best. Now, if we do have a miller a and it's cranking as it goes by, it's going to draw in alot of maritime air that will be unseasonbly warm for this time of year but the cheezy little events that scream 1-3" just melt away before the flakes hit the ground. It's just frustrating because it's not like it's november or march. We're right smack dab in the time of year where it "should easily snow" with the setups we've seen. I'm not smart enough to know exactly why but it still doesn't seem right to me. Maybe it's just bad luck i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hitting all these bl problems in late jan and early feb kinda goes against conventional wisdom in these parts. Even with hp's around the lakes and ca/ny area, we still can't really cool down. Is it the lack of snowcover? It's not like the cold air isn't aloft because it is. we keep battling ground temps and it seems odd. This time of year is easy to get cool seasonal air at the surface but it's just not around even when hp placements would argue against it. Maybe ocean temps? Probably a better graph or map but looking at these temps off the coast they are quite a bit above normal. http://www.nodc.noaa.../cwtg/catl.html Really started looking at those numbers and they are unbelievably warm compared to climo. I understand that we have had a very warm winter up to this point but don't think that would explain this amount of warmth. I have to wonder if the lack of NorEasters this winter may have a big part to play where we don't have the churning and upwelling of deeper, colder water from these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I can see that with areas like the delmarva, coastal nj and maybe philly but not areas west of 95 in these parts. I've been watching suface flow because it's crossed my mind but generally speaking the bl issues don't seem tied to that with the recent events. Haven't really had an easterly component and when there has been, it's been very weak at best. Now, if we do have a miller a and it's cranking as it goes by, it's going to draw in alot of maritime air that will be unseasonbly warm for this time of year but the cheezy little events that scream 1-3" just melt away before the flakes hit the ground. It's just frustrating because it's not like it's november or march. We're right smack dab in the time of year where it "should easily snow" with the setups we've seen. I'm not smart enough to know exactly why but it still doesn't seem right to me. Maybe it's just bad luck i guess. It might be related to the jet stream configuration, all of these systems have one thing in common. They never phase with the northern stream. These warm water temperatures are from the persistent pattern of cutoff lows and Southeasterly events during the summer, last year was fooking nuts in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Really started looking at those numbers and they are unbelievably warm compared to climo. I understand that we have had a very warm winter up to this point but don't think that would explain this amount of warmth. I have to wonder if the lack of NorEasters this winter may have a big part to play where we don't have the churning and upwelling of deeper, colder water from these storms. No need to wonder, thats why. No upwelling man, good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Really started looking at those numbers and they are unbelievably warm compared to climo. I understand that we have had a very warm winter up to this point but don't think that would explain this amount of warmth. I have to wonder if the lack of NorEasters this winter may have a big part to play where we don't have the churning and upwelling of deeper, colder water from these storms. We're kinda getting off topic here but that amount of warmth is totally normal in the type of dominant pattern we've seen the entire winter. There has been extremely limited canadian and zero artic air this winter. Just look at the lake effect belts. They been mostly brown this year. Close in ocean surface temps are cooled by cold strong offshore flow which we have had none of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 no upwelling is correct, but it's obviously not because of the "lack of noreasters". Well the jet is another reason but whatever you say trixie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 no upwelling is correct, but it's obviously not because of the "lack of noreasters". Agree. Just a strong offshore flow will turn the water over pretty easily. Couple summers ago the surf temps off md/va/northern nc coasts dropped almost 10 degrees in a week. We had an anomalous strong and persistent westerly flow and it turned the ocean over so to speak. Pretty cool actually....or cold for swimmers...lol Not sure how that applies in the winter though. I think the surface is colder than the subsurface? I guess it would apply to the gulf stream but I don't think upwelling has much of an effect of cooling surface temps near the coast in the winter. Not sure though so if I'm wrong, call me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This looks familiar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This looks familiar... {img} The 2 inches of snow doesn't... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 2 inches of snow doesn't... just wait till it's over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 just wait till it's over.. Trust me, I am expecting rain.. I was just saying that 2 inches of snow here is something we haven't seen before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 h5 energy is a tad further west at h5 at 18 hrs on the 12z when comparing it to the 06z h5 at 24 Same thing at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 The 2 inches of snow doesn't... I'm pretty sure those graphs looked like that for the recent event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 ooh, gfs looking better 42-48... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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