yoda Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I don't know, it is snow after 06z on the NAM. I feel bad... but could I see the sounding? I feel like a lawyer asking for proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Its pretty fitting that in this winter we'd miss a phase by 100 miles that could have maybe gotten us closer to seasonal averages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I feel bad... but could I see the sounding? I feel like a lawyer asking for proof Just came out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is the shocker on the NAM. I don't know if it is counting on perfect downslope or what on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This is the shocker on the NAM. I don't know if it is counting on perfect downslope or what on Saturday. Hmmm... I just hope the trends continue, just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Is that a sub 970 low east of Maine?? Wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just need the GGEM bomb and we're good #weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I'm thoroughly surprised on how this event has turned around. I made a forecast yesterday about the passing of an arctic front and sct. snow showers and now the NAM pulls this 12z run out of the woodwork (almost) with a weak miller A. I'm breaking out the Kocin book! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ill just keep hoping for trends, thats all. Cold air wont magicaly show up but it might come in a bit more. There are a few ways we can make something happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Just need the GGEM bomb and we're good #weenies #jan252000whenissomemorongoingtomentionthat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Ill just keep hoping for trends, thats all. Cold air wont magicaly show up but it might come in a bit more. There are a few ways we can make something happen no, that is magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 #jan252000whenissomemorongoingtomentionthat you just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Surface cold isn't the problem here on this run of the NAM. 32 line is here by hr. 39. But the decent moisture is just a bit too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 btw...the JMA showed this scenario first a few days ago. I remember making a post that the JMA looked very threatning for this weekend for the east cosat #dontforgetJMAmention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Surface cold isn't the problem here on this run of the NAM. 32 line is here by hr. 39. But the decent moisture is just a bit too far east. For you id definitely hold out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Damn. I've tried to ignore this threat because it just didn't seem probable at all that we would pop a low in front of the front. NAM pretty much puts us in a decent stripe of .25-.49. Not sure where the cold air comes from here. We got nothing n&w of us in this case. Maybe the time of year saves us. idk- kinda skeptical overall. Where's Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 let's not forget folks we were 36 or 48 hrs. ahead of yesterday's system and the NAM did the same thing with +.25" qpf and cold BL temps (colder than what it is showing for us now) and we know how that worked as much as I hope we see something, one can't believe the NAM at this range (or any range for that matter this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Suppose if the timing slowed down, would it get suppressed? That is probably what we need to get better thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 let's not forget folks we were 36 or 48 hrs. ahead of yesterday's system and the NAM did the same thing with +.25" qpf and cold BL temps (colder than what it is showing for us now) and we know how that worked as much as I hope we see something, one can't believe the NAM at this range (or any range for that matter this winter) Im mainly interested to see what the rest of the 12z suite has to say about the potential, many of the models have been trending, at least the nam and the euro were the ones to start it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 let's not forget folks we were 36 or 48 hrs. ahead of yesterday's system and the NAM did the same thing with +.25" qpf and cold BL temps (colder than what it is showing for us now) and we know how that worked as much as I hope we see something, one can't believe the NAM at this range (or any range for that matter this winter) It's a paradox. Sub freezing temps pressing all the way down into tx and a beast of a hp coming out of canada. Move the further east and poof, storm goes way off shore. I guess we have to keep a close eye on se ca and upstate ny and see if anything favorable happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's a paradox. Sub freezing temps pressing all the way down into tx and a beast of a hp coming out of canada. Move the further east and poof, storm goes way off shore. I guess we have to keep a close eye on se ca and upstate ny and see if anything favorable happens. Yeah it is definitely sucking us in to at least watch for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 It's a paradox. Sub freezing temps pressing all the way down into tx and a beast of a hp coming out of canada. Move the further east and poof, storm goes way off shore. I guess we have to keep a close eye on se ca and upstate ny and see if anything favorable happens. look at that Low over the PA/NY border...it's completely fooking up our surface flow; there's a reflection of it on the prior map or two also http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120209%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip_l.gif&fcast=042&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=02%2F09%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=102&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hitting all these bl problems in late jan and early feb kinda goes against conventional wisdom in these parts. Even with hp's around the lakes and ca/ny area, we still can't really cool down. Is it the lack of snowcover? It's not like the cold air isn't aloft because it is. we keep battling ground temps and it seems odd. This time of year is easy to get cool seasonal air at the surface but it's just not around even when hp placements would argue against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 look at that Low over the PA/NY border...it's completely fooking up our surface flow; there's a reflection of it on the prior map or two also http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fnam%2F20120209%2F12%2Fnam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip_l.gif&fcast=042&imagesurls=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=02%2F09%2F2012+12UTC&imageSize=L&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=102&nextImage=yes Going for the hail mary doug flutie miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 This system has a few nice things in its favor... occurring at night, a deep moist layer and plenty of cold air aloft. Boundary level temps will be the biggest problem up until around 6z (per the models), but stuff that falls after 06z should be snow that has the potential to stick on non-paved surfaces (which would be UP TO 0.1" QPF for the DC region). The analysis is only based on the most recent model runs... obviously there's still room for change (either in favor or against more snow). EDIT: Added cold air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 the NAM is warm in ENE I'm sure if our friends to the NE check soundings, they won't like what they see any more than we like what we see sure, they'll do better, but it won't be as it looks at first blush imho....understand I haven't looked at anyone's soundings, just the 2m temp maps off NCEP so maybe I'll be proved wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 look at that Low over the PA/NY border...it's completely fooking up our surface flow; there's a reflection of it on the prior map or two also http://mag.ncep.noaa...2&nextImage=yes yea, i was looking at that on the raleigh maps but the ncep depicts the issue much better. even with that weak area of lp, you would still think that bl shouldn't be such an issue given the climo time of year. this year is odd on many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Damn. I've tried to ignore this threat because it just didn't seem probable at all that we would pop a low in front of the front. NAM pretty much puts us in a decent stripe of .25-.49. Not sure where the cold air comes from here. We got nothing n&w of us in this case. Maybe the time of year saves us. idk- kinda skeptical overall. Where's Wes? It almost looks like yesterdays lil event, up this way. maybe a tad warmer to start though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 hitting all these bl problems in late jan and early feb kinda goes against conventional wisdom in these parts. Even with hp's around the lakes and ca/ny area, we still can't really cool down. Is it the lack of snowcover? It's not like the cold air isn't aloft because it is. we keep battling ground temps and it seems odd. This time of year is easy to get cool seasonal air at the surface but it's just not around even when hp placements would argue against it. Bob, I can honestly say I've never seen a winter like this where our problem has been BL temps with every system, starting back in OCT; yeah, I could understand that one, but not, as you say, late JAN-early FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 let's not forget folks we were 36 or 48 hrs. ahead of yesterday's system and the NAM did the same thing with +.25" qpf and cold BL temps (colder than what it is showing for us now) and we know how that worked as much as I hope we see something, one can't believe the NAM at this range (or any range for that matter this winter) This place is groundhog day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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