Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 where do i sign up for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Nice the CMC is already making an appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'm banning Midlo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Agreed. One of the stupidest things to ever hit the weatherboards. Yep. How did you do yesterday? Get anything more than a measly dusting? We got a nice +PNA/-AO combo ahead so I hope it can deliver the goods for everyone. I still like the end of this week/weekend but unfortunately it is all about the degree of phasing. We saw how wonderful the models did with yesterday's event. What's 12 hours off....lol no biggie! My stern warning continues as the state of the NH pattern remains quite unsettled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Nice the CMC is already making an appearance That's the Midlo storm, after the Matt storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Yep. How did you do yesterday? Get anything more than a measly dusting? We got a nice +PNA/-AO combo ahead so I hope it can deliver the goods for everyone. I still like the end of this week/weekend but unfortunately it is all about the degree of phasing. We saw how wonderful the models did with yesterday's event. What's 12 hours off....lol no biggie! My stern warning continues as the state of the NH pattern remains quite unsettled. I don't think we got anything other than some ice pellets and maybe a few overnight flakes but wasn't really planning on anything here. I am playing up negativity to a reason but it's been fairly consistent that the trough axis is too far east. When you add in needing phases etc it's even more problematic. It would be a shame if we don't cash in somewhere in the upcoming period and I tend to think we will at some point tho I doubt we get a widespread 6-12+ in the coastal plain around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 That's the Midlo storm, after the Matt storm They're all really BB babies anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 They're all really BB babies anyway wouldn't it still be too early for his scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 They're all really BB babies anyway We might hit 30" this time next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I don't think we got anything other than some ice pellets and maybe a few overnight flakes but wasn't really planning on anything here. I am playing up negativity to a reason but it's been fairly consistent that the trough axis is too far east. When you add in needing phases etc it's even more problematic. It would be a shame if we don't cash in somewhere in the upcoming period and I tend to think we will at some point tho I doubt we get a widespread 6-12+ in the coastal plain around here. Yea, highly unlikely getting that with a single event. However, it's not unreasonable to think we get 6" for the month or even more. I know the GFS is on its own to some extent but looping the 12z nhem map is pretty nice. Ridge out west through the whole run and amplified flow throughout too. If anything like that actually verified we could potentially see 3 or more threats during a 2 week period. Getting 3 1-3/2-4 events would at least get this year out of the top 10 worst snow years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I could see this Wed-Thu wave trend snowier; it is a good little vort max. But it would most likely favor northern areas at best (N WV, NW MD, PA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I could see this Wed-Thu wave trend snowier; it is a good little vort max. But it would most likely favor northern areas at best (N WV, NW MD, PA). It needs to trenmd wetter with stronger uvv to get it colder. As it stands now, the surfact temps look pretty warm, very much like this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 wouldn't it still be too early for his scenario? BBs guess started Feb 12th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 It needs to trenmd wetter with stronger uvv to get it colder. As it stands now, the surfact temps look pretty warm, very much like this last storm. Agreed. The timing isn't going to help either (during the day). So we have to watch the trends in its dynamics for sure. Perhaps it will make for a "snowflake in the air" type of day but with no real problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro kicks the Nrn stream east and leaves the SRN strewam behind. More progressive than GFS on NRN stream and slower with the southern stream. Hence, it shows no storm within 700 miles of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 The 12Z GFS seems to suggest good moisture available at 850 mb and yet relatively dry at 700 mb on 02/12 at around 15Z. I'm guessing the the storm is shearing out and with perhaps flurries in the Mid-Atlantic. It seems that this storm will have breaks in the clouds on the north side of the trough and primary light to moderate precip suppressed to the south. At 177 hours, the 850mb layer is well saturated and the 700 mb chart/layer dry as a bone in the mid-Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 BBs guess started Feb 12th That guess backed up by zero meteorological reason is the height of idiotic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Euro kicks the Nrn stream east and leaves the SRN strewam behind. More progressive than GFS on NRN stream and slower with the southern stream. Hence, it shows no storm within 700 miles of us. Good. This is not the year to expect agreement 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Good. This is not the year to expect agreement 7+ days out. It would be helpful if one model showed a storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 For anyone wanting the trough axis further west, the Euro takes care of that one in a big way. GFS ens. members would say that the chance for next weekend isn't dead. GFS/Euro have not been good at 5+ so I don't think its too discouraging yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 The 00z GFS folds to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 6, 2012 Author Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro has the storm and not sure I would say it is close but we do get some -SN.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Euro has the storm and not sure I would say it is close but we do get some -SN.... Still a week out...pretty irrelevant what the euro has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 Still a week out...pretty irrelevant what the euro has What's the JMA show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm more then willing to drop this one, the set up is just taunting us. Skies the limit and I'm going all in around the 23th (perhaps a few days earlier) as our first and only real storm of the season. This of course goes with no scientific basis, but that's what makes it more epic if I win, because if i win we all win lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 I'm more then willing to drop this one, the set up is just taunting us. Skies the limit and I'm going all in around the 23th (perhaps a few days earlier) as our the first and only real storm of the season, this of course goes with no scientific basis, but that's what makes it all the more epic if I win, because if i win we all win lol. You're probably basing this on some 300+ hr fantasy GFS run. You should know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You're probably basing this on some 300+ hr fantasy GFS run. You should know better. I'm hugging hour 384, as should you. It gives us lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You're probably basing this on some 300+ hr fantasy GFS run. You should know better. More likely based on BB's forecast. Certainly the methodology is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 You're probably basing this on some 300+ hr fantasy GFS run. You should know better. haha I wish it was even had that, no i had a dream about it, and i was just trying to be the local prophet, shame on me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 6, 2012 Share Posted February 6, 2012 haha I wish it was even had that, no i had a dream about it, and i was just trying to be the local prophet, shame on me lol Are you Katdog's cousin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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