usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Isn't the ensemble mean usually flatter/colder? That's because you mean out all the solutions. Look at the spaghetti plot and compare it to any of the various members. Compare the southern most white line to the orange ones and the second white line up from it to the green. See how the differences aren't due to averaging of the various members cancelling out each other but are becuase of initial analysis difference. The white lines are the operational run except it's run at the same resolution as the ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Matt - looks like your storm was already named Wxrisk.com 6Z GFS had the DT FEB 10-12 event as well..Just sayin' http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20120130/12/gfs_namer_312_200_wnd_ht.gif 13 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Here's the 264 hr ensemble mean and spaghetti plot. See how different they are from the Operational (white line). It's pretty much on its own on how much it pulls the trough west. It could still be right but having it out on a limb means it usually gets cut off on the next run. Seeing that does not give a lot of confidence. You are def right on the trough set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Seeing that does not give a lot of confidence. You are def right on the trough set up. No it doesn't, the only good thing is that the models are showing so much uncertainy that all the runs will probably be quite different tomorrow so we may get another different looking evolution that looks exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS still has it... but offshore 300-400 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS still has it... but way way offshore Probably a good place for it to be right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS still has it... but offshore 300-400 miles Then it dosent have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Then it dosent have it I'd disagree, right now just seeing the storm stil on the map is a step in the right direction.....its there and we have plenty of time to lose it.....get in better position, seasonal trend says lose it but it is still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Then it dosent have it 6z should keep you interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 6z should keep you interested This period is too far out to consider placement of surface elements but notice low pressure north-northwest of the coastal low. This suggests boundary layer issues. Cold air advection sweeps in after the moisture departs to the northeast. Matt is correct about maintaining the lowest possible expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 6z should keep you interested Can we blow it back west a little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Terrible run. When does it end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Well It is definitely nice to see that the GFS consistently advertises the feature. I think it has been 3-4 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yeah....the models are having a hard time....problem now is though they seem to only be showing bad solutions...different ones...but still bad. Keep your hopes low people...as far as we know the much hyped torch happens mid Feb....delayed but not denied. I have held my tongue all winter...but man this one has sucked some serious monkey b alls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yeah....the models are having a hard time....problem now is though they seem to only be showing bad solutions...different ones...but still bad. Keep your hopes low people...as far as we know the much hyped torch happens mid Feb....delayed but not denied. I have held my tongue all winter...but man this one has sucked some serious monkey b alls the only thing that has made it bearable for me is that time flies as you get older Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 BOS: 0" NYC: 0" PHL:0" BWI: 0" DCA:0" RIC:0" Final call. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 We can't even get the models to keep our fantasy storm around. It is fishing on the latest GFS. What the models are consistently showing in this time period is a series of storm killing "L"s in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the gfs track / precip is nice.. now to get some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the gfs track / precip is nice.. now to get some cold air. has every event(regardless of how small) trended colder as we've gotten closer this season? I can think of one maybe two so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 has every event(regardless of how small) trended colder as we've gotten closer this season? I can think of one maybe two so far. im not sure.. most events were awful. the second storm has a really nice southern vort but it gets shunted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the gfs track / precip is nice.. now to get some cold air. looks like the PV keeps the northern stream progressive, but it could be the gfs just not picking up on a northern stream s/w this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 im not sure.. most events were awful. the second storm has a really nice southern vort but it gets shunted. good thing it is in the GFS's wheelhouse at D+7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro at 144 looks interesting... Sure, it shunts everything directly eastwards by hr 168, but it wouldn't require too much shift in the placement of that maritimes High to make things more interesting...? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPNA144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro at 144 looks interesting... Sure, it shunts everything directly eastwards by hr 168, but it wouldn't require too much shift in the placement of that maritimes High to make things more interesting...? http://raleighwx.ame...mbTSLPNA144.gif That is quite the PV in Canada, if only it would come down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 How's this looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 How's this looking? Supposedly this an HM storm now but I'm pretty sure matt gave me the naming rights in exchange for the march superbomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Supposedly this an HM storm now but I'm pretty sure matt gave me the naming rights in exchange for the march superbomb Cool...are you taking suggestions on a name or are you going to be selfish? Try to be a little more creative than presidents day III or VD II...K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Supposedly this an HM storm now but I'm pretty sure matt gave me the naming rights in exchange for the march superbomb Shouldn't it be the zwyts storm since he came up with this timeframe? Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Shouldn't it be the zwyts storm since he came up with this timeframe? Or am I missing something? You're probably missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Oh...I guess we're talking about it in here...but the GFS is a nice development on it. I'm still all in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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