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February 10-13 Storm Obs/Discussion


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Goalpost shifting again I see

I haven't changed anything, actually. From January 26 in the locked solar thread:

1) Transition period is January 30th to February 7th, pattern will be "hit and run" here in the MA. Models will begin showing 'fantasies' in the long range starting on the 5th-7th period. MJO shifts into octants 6 and 7 as upward motion becomes eastward predominate. SSTAs in the EPAC and tropical Atlantic warm, Atlantic ENSO being in La Nina mode will shut down a complete loop, though.

2) MJO makes the first healthy transition into Octant 8 mid Month, pattern becomes rapidly better as +PNA strengthens, vortex in Alaska takes a hit and retrogrades Westward, ridging pushes to the pole or near it by the 20th. Trough develops from the great lakes, TN valley, south-central US, to the east coast.

3). Strong, full-phasing coastal storms begin in earnest between the 12th and the 23rd, cold air will be easily attainable and adequate in availability. MJO will push into octant 1.

Why do you feel the need to fabricate and lie? I just don't get it, I haven't "moved the goalposts" once...like wtf, really?

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Bullseye on DT's house = kiss of death

That and it being the 324hr GFS and all.

Yay! We all know it will trend n&w. Bullseye will end up being mt. vortmax area but we'll cash nicely down here too while dt needs a canoe to get the mail.

Jokes aside, there are alot of signs pointing to this general timeframe. Enough to say that we stand a decent chance even @ 10+ days away (by decent chance I mean like 10% or so but still).

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Well then, if it is at 276h it will most certainly happen!!!! Huge difference!

Here's the 264 hr ensemble mean and spaghetti plot. See how different they are from the Operational (white line). It's pretty much on its own on how much it pulls the trough west. It could still be right but having it out on a limb means it usually gets cut off on the next run.

post-70-0-07917900-1327946548.gif

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Here's the 264 hr ensemble mean and spaghetti plot. See how different they are from the Operational (white line). It's pretty much on its own on how much it pulls the trough west. It could still be right but having it out on a limb means it usually gets cut off on the next run.

post-70-0-07917900-1327946548.gif

Isn't the ensemble mean usually flatter/colder?

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