winterymix Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Mark my words. I know this to be true, this storm will happen. 33 & rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 what year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 To be fair, models are being screwy... 0Z GFS had a nothing-event followed by warmth... now 12Z has a double-barrelled low, the furst pulse of which sits off shore to our south before being sucked into a massive great lakes super-rainstorm... I guess this is where forecasting, rather than modelwatching, pays off - the atmospheric conditions, jet stream, etc, seem good, so no matter what the models say, there's potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 To be fair, models are being screwy... 0Z GFS had a nothing-event followed by warmth... now 12Z has a double-barrelled low, the furst pulse of which sits off shore to our south before being sucked into a massive great lakes super-rainstorm... I guess this is where forecasting, rather than modelwatching, pays off - the atmospheric conditions, jet stream, etc, seem good, so no matter what the models say, there's potential. I agree. I was rolling the gfs panels as they came out and I got a tad excited in the 180 range but yes, it closes the second low off @ 500 all the way back in tx and marches it right up to the lakes. We get soaked. This is where not having a -nao really hurts. There may be some overrunning with the first low. CAD sig at the surface and 850. Maybe some flakes, maybe some ice, who knows. This is something to watch for sure. There is no way any model is going to nail a complex multi low system this far out. I would say the odds are pretty much stacked against us but anything in the gulf with a 1045 hp to the nw of us has to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If the models ensemble pattern materializes then what the gfs shows will not happen. What does the gfs ensemble show for the same period as what the canadian and euro show?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If the models ensemble pattern materializes then what the gfs shows will not happen. What does the gfs ensemble show for the same period as what the canadian and euro show?? Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Wut? Never mind!! Was asking a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 We are going to get a storm then. In the 127-year official snow history of DC, February 10-13 has seen measurable snow 42 times (33%) and a trace 29 times (23%), producing an average 1.1 inch for those four days, 1885-2011. Only eight years (6%) have seen at least five inches of snow during that period. However, two of those eight were Top Ten snowfalls -- Feb 11-14, 1899 (20.5 inches, 2nd all-time, and still 2nd even if the one inch that fell on the 14th is excluded) and Feb. 10-11, 1983 (16.6 inches, 7th all-time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 In the 127-year official snow history of DC, February 10-13 has seen measurable snow 42 times (33%) and a trace 29 times (23%), producing an average 1.1 inch for those four days, 1885-2011. Only eight years (6%) have seen at least five inches of snow during that period. However, two of those eight were Top Ten snowfalls -- Feb 11-14, 1899 (20.5 inches, 2nd all-time, and still 2nd even if the one inch that fell on the 14th is excluded) and Feb. 10-11, 1983 (16.6 inches, 7th all-time). To refine the above analysis, in the 21 prior La Nina years since 1950, only one (5%) has seen measurable snow in DC during February 10-13, and ten (48%) have seen a trace. The one La Nina year since 1950 that saw measurable snow in DC during that period was 1955, when 2.5 inches fell on February 11. Therefore, the average snow during February 10-13 in La Nina years in DC since 1950 is 0.1 inch. Now, doesn't that make you feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Larry Cosgrove is on board ? "And if you are looking for a memorable winter storm, consider that the southern branch jet stream will undercut that western ridge and (according to the three ensemble families) offer the chance for a storm across the Gulf Coast and moving very tight to the Atlantic Coast in the February 11 - 13 time frame. Analog forecasts for February favor warmer values returning to these regions in the second half of the month. So my feeling is that if a bigger snow or ice machine does develop, mid-February represents something of a "now or never" scenario for winter weather enthusiasts." http://www.examiner....-at-6-50-p-m-ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Larry Cosgrove is on board ? "And if you are looking for a memorable winter storm, consider that the southern branch jet stream will undercut that western ridge and (according to the three ensemble families) offer the chance for a storm across the Gulf Coast and moving very tight to the Atlantic Coast in the February 11 - 13 time frame. Analog forecasts for February favor warmer values returning to these regions in the second half of the month. So my feeling is that if a bigger snow or ice machine does develop, mid-February represents something of a "now or never" scenario for winter weather enthusiasts." http://www.examiner....-at-6-50-p-m-ct Really bad sign if you like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Folks are still using Nina/February "analogs" to justify the return of warmth? Despite the weak similarities in progression? Risks high with the statistical based methods as anomalies do occur. This February could turn out quite Nino-esque, +PNA, -AO, with -NAO getting started a bit later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 How has LC been doing this winter? Usually I fade his predictions because he is a stubborn against the grain kind of forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Larry's always a good read. I think he initially went cold early, as many did. When that didn't turn out well, he has really seemed to shy away from going out on any limbs. I think he's been steady since then, without a lot of hype. Thinking about it further, I've probably been receiving his newsletter for about 12-13 years. Pretty cool that he's still putting out a quality product for free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Folks are still using Nina/February "analogs" to justify the return of warmth? Despite the weak similarities in progression? Risks high with the statistical based methods as anomalies do occur. This February could turn out quite Nino-esque, +PNA, -AO, with -NAO getting started a bit later on. Well, several dynamical models are also forecasting a warm Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 How has LC been doing this winter? Usually I fade his predictions because he is a stubborn against the grain kind of forecaster. well, if nothing else, his old newsletters are still available and full of maps that were current when written here's an interesting time frame! http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston?page=14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 well, if nothing else, his old newsletters are still available and full of maps that were current when written here's an interesting time frame! http://www.examiner....houston?page=14 Always the master of the obscure town references: my call for the no-snow line is roughly analogous to the PA/NY border and Interstate 84 (Dunsmore PA to Sturbridge MA) and then into the Boston MA metro. but the presence of the powerful -NAO signal and cold dome will likely prevent any accumulations in that region above a Greenwich CT.....New Chatham MA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Really bad sign if you like snow. Yeah, Cosgrove is awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Some more: Slowly but surely, the numerical weather forecast models have begun to concur on the prospect of a major snow and ice event affecting parts of the Ohio Valley, middle Appalachia, and the Interstate 95 corridor above Petersburg VA Most of the numerical versions show an area of heavy snow accompanied by gusty north winds affecting the Interstate 95 corridor from Belvoir VA into the Trenton NJ vicinity as the expanding low approaches the 70W, 40N "benchmark" on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 How has LC been doing this winter? Usually I fade his predictions because he is a stubborn against the grain kind of forecaster. About as good as DT and jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Always the master of the obscure town references: Some more: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 GFS has the zwyts storm. Nice coastal. Just a tad too far east but we all know it will come n&w a bit. Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Euro ensembles like my window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 That's nice to know since I don't get teh euro ens mean past day 10. Do they bring pac energy or retorgrade the trough axis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 That's nice to know since I don't get teh euro ens mean past day 10. Do they bring pac energy or retorgrade the trough axis? The latter. See Will's post in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 lulz, just sayin'..... Global progression is lagging about 4-5 days from where I anticipated we'd be, but still looks sexy to me...folks just gotta' believe! Quote this post for verification. There is nothing wrong with this winter and no need for panic, it is behaving how it should given the steady signals, and they won't last much longer. The MJO is now racing, IO SSTAs are dropping. After this brief tease, the MJO should reconfigure in the COD about 10-15 days, before making the big final push late in the month. We'll see the signs on the pacific side first, the jet will buckle along with a disruption of the polar vortexleading to a powerful storm system(s) crossing the nation late in January which with a semi cut negative tilt in the trough will pull high heights into greenland entraining in the process without the flow to flatten it. Favorable pattern from the very end of the month throughout most of February. Still a reason for focused convection, but the cooler IO relative to the La Nina in January with the SW budget increasing in January and February indirectly weakens the easterlies, Loop 1 and loop 2 had no hope, neither did a downwelling SSW. Conditions were unfavorable and still are. The same won't be said about the third loop since there will be less contrast in forcing to hold back the reassembling of the new regime in convection once the MJO goes back to the Maritime regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 lulz, just sayin'..... Global progression is lagging about 4-5 days from where I anticipated we'd be, but still looks sexy to me...folks just gotta' believe! I have 1.75". Only 30-40" more and you will verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 I have 1.75". Only 30-40" more and you will verify! Anything we get before February 7th doesn't count towards the 20-40". I'll now leave the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Anything we get before February 7th doesn't count towards the 20-40". I'll now leave the thread. Why are you not banned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Why are you not banned? Cause we want snow and it might be bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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