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February 10-13 Storm Obs/Discussion


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Surface freezing line at 12z Saturday from around IAD through north-central MD it looks like. Temps at 6z were in the 30s for everyone, but the freezing line was farther north. Good trend on the GFS, perhaps it will continue.

http://raleighwx.ame...s2mtemps048.gif

when you look at that map and see all that cold to the north and yet we can barely eek out a freezing temp, it suggests we are being punished for something

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the double barrel low isn't likely going away...the first low develops in response to the southern stream wave, the second low (closer to the coast) develops in response to the northern stream....there isn't really any phasing until things get well north of here...

and regarding trends, i don't see a scenario (outside of a very unlikely early phase) where this thing can come much farther west, the giant PV in eastern canada won't allow the flow to back enough to allow that to happen

Thanks WES LOL :)

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the double barrel low isn't likely going away...the first low develops in response to the southern stream wave, the second low (closer to the coast) develops in response to the northern stream....there isn't really any phasing until things get well north of here...

and regarding trends, i don't see a scenario (outside of a very unlikely early phase) where this thing can come much farther west, the giant PV in eastern canada won't allow the flow to back enough to allow that to happen

I've heard that before.

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the double barrel low isn't likely going away...the first low develops in response to the southern stream wave, the second low (closer to the coast) develops in response to the northern stream....there isn't really any phasing until things get well north of here...

and regarding trends, i don't see a scenario (outside of a very unlikely early phase) where this thing can come much farther west, the giant PV in eastern canada won't allow the flow to back enough to allow that to happen

Other than if the strength and configuration of the PV is not correctly modeled as has happened so many times in the past

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Other than if the strength and configuration of the PV is not correctly modeled as has happened so many times in the past

To be honest here, if anything, the lp development isn't correctly modeled. The PV is a much larger and more stable feature and while it may not be modeled perfectly, don't bet on that feature coming around to save the day.

So far it's nice seeing the models go this way but setting expectations beyond a nice little period of snow that may or may not stick is probably not a good idea.

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If the Euro jumps west one more time you will be. :)

so far it's going basically exactly as i expected but we'll see. phases are usually late... and this thing is in no hurry to go big right away to start with.

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At least it is a different look from events we've seen already.

i suppose.. our luck with big coastals in a nina is not superb. i still sorta like next week's chance tho it doesnt seem to want to come together.

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