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Feb. 2-4 Potential Winter Storm


snowlover2

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The models are going to be a mess with this. To many pieces and confusing wavelengths to understand right now. The GFS is sitting in its own vomit by 132hrs.

tad better consensus with the 00Z's tomorrow night . . .

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0115 PM EST SUN 29 JANUARY 2012

SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)

VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z JANUARY 2012

WSPOD NUMBER.....11-060

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72

A. P54/ DROP 8 (45.0N 166.0W)/ 31/0000Z

B. AFXXX 08WSC TRACK54

C. 30/1830Z

D. 17 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK

E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 31/0600Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:

A. POSSIBLE TEAL C-130J MISSION FOR

P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/0000Z.

B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR

P56/ DROP 9 (44.3N 151.0W)/ 01/1200Z.

SEF

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From DTX with reference to the pattern

PREDICTABILITY TAKES A NOSEDIVE BEYOND MIDWEEK AS THE MODELS APPEAR

TO GRAPPLE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A RE-HASH OF SORTS OF THE PATTERN

CHANGE THAT WAS ADVERTISED TO TAKE PLACE EARLIER THIS MONTH (WHICH

WAS WAS QUICKLY OVERWHELMED AND REDUCED TO A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT

COLD SHOTS). BEGINNING EARLY THIS WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH

DEPICT A 200KT JET STARTING TO WORK ITS AWAY ACROSS THE

PACIFIC...ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN A SIMILAR DISLODGING OF THE

ALASKAN PV...ETC BY FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED. IF TONIGHT`S 00Z

ECMWF - WHICH LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF A TRAINWRECK FROM THE DATELINE

TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEYOND FRIDAY - IS ANY INDICATION...THEN

A PERIOD OF LOW PREDICTABILITY MAY IN BE STORE AS THE GUIDANCE

TRIES TO GET A HANDLE ON THE SUDDENLY ENERGIZED PACIFIC

PATTERN...ALTHOUGH TODAY`S RECON FLIGHT SCHEDULED NEAR 45N/165W

OUGHT TO GIVE MODEL PERFORMANCE A BOOST FOR THE ENERGY THAT MAY BE

LIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.

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I think ultimitely if anyone can get anything out of this it will be an I70 storm to KC then I80 from there. The Atlantic Side is not going to cooperate and allow enough cold air to really help me out even with an idea track it seems.

the GFS has shown a couple runs with some immense cooling in the deformation zone to give us snow here, but without that it is in the 40s and 50s with rain.

The NAM is already showing even stronger WAA which seems to happen quite a bit with these closed off lows with some very warm air pumping back in during the day.

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