cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Certainly looks like this will be more of an impact from Nebraska through the northwest half of Iowa as far as snowfall. Seems to be the general consensus over the last day or so by the majority of the more reliable models. Expecting a rain event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 00z Euro continues on its own path. It doesn't move the storm eastward like the GFS and GEM. It just sits in the central plains for a while, then peters out as it slowly lifts northward into Minnesota. Nebraska looks pretty good for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Nam looks interesting...but warm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 5:54 AM, Geos said: The GEM is only model showing snow in Wisconsin of any consequence. I'm thinking that model might be a bit too wet.T Actually the NAM does bring some snow in to. Hard to tell how much as this range though. On 2/1/2012 at 5:56 AM, Hoosier said: 00z GGEM gets heavy precip east of the Mississippi. Maybe the NAM isn't totally on crack. IND is riding the GEM. IWX, as usual, likes the slower Euro. THE 00Z GEM AND ECMWF RUNS ARE STRONGER AND MUCH SLOWER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DUE TO SHARP RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GEM AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF BUT YET NOT QUITE AS SLOW. THIS ALSO SEEMS TO BE WHAT THE CENTRAL INITIALIZATION IS HINTING AT AND CLOSE TO WHAT THE HEMISPHERIC DISCUSSION IS IMPLYING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 parts of IA into WI do quite well in the heavy snow band on the 12z NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Good old super/over charged NAM. Drops 1.78" of rainfall here. That would get LAF to normal for February with precipitation (1.76"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Seems like we are starting to see some consensus on a roughly I-80 north snow event in IA/IL/WI. Just have to get the Euro on board. The band of snow looks fairly narrow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:05 PM, Hoosier said: Seems like we are starting to see some consensus on a roughly I-80 north snow event in IA/IL/WI. Just have to get the Euro on board. The band of snow looks fairly narrow at this point. And primarily focusing near and west of the Mississippi; maybe Freeport and Prairie du Chien could sneak out a nice 6" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 NAM/GFS snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z Euro still a giant cluster**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:05 PM, Hoosier said: Seems like we are starting to see some consensus on a roughly I-80 north snow event in IA/IL/WI. Just have to get the Euro on board. The band of snow looks fairly narrow at this point. will have full sampling with the 18z runs. Should have much better idea hopefully by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:14 PM, Hoosier said: 12z Euro still a giant cluster**** sfc low occluding all the way back to se NE/sw IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 interesting looking map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 what a turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 yes a very dry one at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 6:39 PM, Alek said: what a turd On 2/1/2012 at 6:50 PM, mnweather said: yes a very dry one at that So not a taco bell one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 7:30 PM, hm8 said: So not a taco bell one? most certainly not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Seems like offices are favoring a slower onset of precip given the strength of the high. Makes sense...that could also help with evaporational cooling on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 only the NAM, serious front end thump north of 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 8:53 PM, Thundersnow12 said: only the NAM, serious front end thump north of 80 You have a lot going for you except the Euro and Alek not being bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 8:53 PM, Thundersnow12 said: only the NAM, serious front end thump north of 80 Whoah! Looks like the 18z NAM then pushes the snow north into WI, then fizzles. The low seemed to track a little further south along the KS/OK border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 8:55 PM, Hoosier said: You have a lot going for you except the Euro and Alek not being bullish. There was a system a couple years ago I wanna say in early Dec that reminds me of this, big honkin system with several hours of +SN on the front end before warming up to rain. 18z NAM soundings for here are all snow by 12z Sat, just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 8:57 PM, Geos said: Whoah! Looks like the 18z NAM then pushes the snow north into WI, then fizzles. The low seemed to track a little further south along the KS/OK border. No there was more snow into WI, thats just a 24hr map. Here is total snowfall from the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 All of the QPF into NE, IA, WI and then if just fizzles out and almost nothing in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Increasingly looking like much of the snow will fall to my northwest. NAM and GFS are keeping a >32F surface and 850mb air mass over southeast Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Wow, the NAM would be a huge hit for northwest Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 10:50 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Increasingly looking like much of the snow will fall to my northwest. NAM and GFS are keeping a >32F surface and 850mb air mass over southeast Iowa. Snowfall Map from DSM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 On 2/1/2012 at 10:50 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Increasingly looking like much of the snow will fall to my northwest. NAM and GFS are keeping a >32F surface and 850mb air mass over southeast Iowa. You're real close to the 32° line with the GFS. Looks like you would get some snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If this (and some other models) were to work out this would be another very tough forecast for the DVN area. Would be another high gradient type situation like the hybrid clipper a few weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.