Hoosier Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 What a mess in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 120 hours snow map and the top 5 120 hour analogs from CIPS leads me to believe that tracking this is pointless for IMBY accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I'll take CIPS #2, 4 or 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 At least they all show snow somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 2:00 PM, WestMichigan said: I'll take CIPS #2, 4 or 5. I'll take a #5 with side orders of 3 and 4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GFS coming in now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Cyclone is gonna like this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Track is slightly more south, not as powerful as 00z but still dies at Lake Michigan. Eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 LOL@ 12z GFS.. That set up could only happen to SEMIganders! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 4:16 PM, gosaints said: Cyclone is gonna like this run Yeah, the GFS still dumping good snow on the northern edge(Iowa) as it pulls out into the midwest, before petering out. Interesting to watch, at least. Anything could still happen with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This will be an interesting storm to watch. The set-up smells of an icing event somewhere across the Midwest/Ohio Valley and into the Middle Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 How many feet for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 4:38 PM, daddylonglegs said: How many feet for me? Dry IYBY for the next 300 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 12z GGEM is pretty similar to the GFS... nails Iowa with wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 4:33 PM, TheWeatherPimp said: This will be an interesting storm to watch. The set-up smells of an icing event somewhere across the Midwest/Ohio Valley and into the Middle Atlantic. Yesterday's GGEM was very favorable with sprawling strong surface high from the northern tier into southeast Canada. I've noticed that other runs have shown a weaker surface high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Just looked at the 12z GGEM. This setup with a 1045+ surface high would be particularly favorable for a band of ice and of course heavy snow to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Not that it's the end all be all but I'm surprised to not see the GGEM precip type plots hinting at ice with this kind of look. Brandon or anyone else have an explanation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 5:11 PM, Hoosier said: Not that it's the end all be all but I'm surprised to not see the GGEM precip type plots hinting at ice with this kind of look. Brandon or anyone else have an explanation? Ice is a tricky thing to forecast, and at this range ~84 its hard to trust any models WRT their temp progs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Just rewatched the 12z NAM and it is basically a carbon copy of the GFS and GEM. What the models this morning are doing is crashing the sub-zero 850mb temp line southward across Iowa just as the big surge of moisture arrives. Yesterday morning the models were surging the warm air up through the area leading to a bunch of rain. I can't remember the last time we had a big snowstorm(6-10+ inches) with heavy, wet snow. That is certainly what this would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This thing looks to have a nice Gulf feed so someone could get hammered. Just hope we can hold off the weakening tendency as it heads farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 4:51 PM, hawkeye_wx said: 12z GGEM is pretty similar to the GFS... nails Iowa with wet snow. fwiw: the ggem nails CID with 1.38 with temps around 30 during the heaviest part of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 dr no will deflate a lot of weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Interesting... 12z Gfs does show just about nothing in the way of precip... Still something to watch closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 5:42 PM, daddylonglegs said: Interesting... 12z Gfs does show just about nothing in the way of precip... Still something to watch closely. No.. this was never a threat up here despite what the POS GFS was whipping out its pants. I see this as a pretty much meh-event for most east of the Mississippi. Hopefully the GFS is right in the long range and we torch almost the whole run with no snow instead of cold and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 This system no doubt will have copius amounts of snow and rain, especially if it crawls along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 5:48 PM, BowMeHunter said: No.. this was never a threat up here despite what the POS GFS was tossing out. I see this as a pretty much meh-event for most east of the Mississippi. Hopefully the GFS is right in the long range and we torch almost the whole run with no snow instead of cold and no snow. I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Copious amounts of snow - lol - not for 99% of this sub forum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 5:48 PM, BowMeHunter said: Hopefully the GFS is right in the long range and we torch almost the whole run with no snow instead of cold and no snow. the last several runs of the ECMWF ENS control also grants your wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 On 1/31/2012 at 6:01 PM, Chicago Storm said: the last several runs of the ECMWF ENS control also grants your wish. Nothing much worse than cold, brown grass and no snow while east of LM and the east coast is snowing. I'm at the point now this winter where if i suffer i want the whole forum to suffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 this is likely going to be a tapped out loser by the time it gets this far east and if it's not, way too warm. Good luck to the Iowa crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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