snowlover2 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I only started 1 thread for a storm last winter and it ended up being the best snowfall (6") that i saw so i figured i'd start this one and hope for similar results. GFS/GGEM/Euro all show a storm with the GGEM/Euro being the strongest to this point. 0z GGEM had a strong Apps runner with a great hit for Ohio. 12z GGEM still had an Apps runner but not as strong so precip on the backside was not as strong either. 12z Euro going by the Wundermap snowfall loop was a good hit for most of Ohio except the far northwest part. Looked like a solid 3-6". Potential seems to be there just have to see if it will finally work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Here the CMC model run from http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html. Also hinting at a Ohio Valley storm for Super Bowl Weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 There are hints of some decent possible during this time. As HM mentioned, in the another thread, the models are struggling with this pattern (due to the mtn torque change I believe). Let’s hope this can turn into something more significant for the GL/MW group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 18Z gfs was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Over/Under on pushing this to the 5th with major Super Bowl impacts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 There are hints of some decent possible during this time. As HM mentioned, in the another thread, the models are struggling with this pattern (due to the mtn torque change I believe). Let’s hope this can turn into something more significant for the GL/MW group. This! And the models will continue to struggle mightily per HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Over/Under on pushing this to the 5th with major Super Bowl impacts? I hope it waits until after the SB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'd root for the SB to get buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What a solution for this one on the 12z GFS. I think southwest MO gets like 25" of snow or something. The low moves almost due north from NOLA at 168 hours to Chicago at 204 hours. Triple bunner for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 What a solution for this one on the 12z GFS. I think southwest MO gets like 25" of snow or something. The low moves almost due north from NOLA at 168 hours to Chicago at 204 hours. Triple bunner for sure. Wow lol that is nuts to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The Super Bowl Blitzkreig storm!! Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The Super Bowl Blitzkreig storm!! Lock it in. It is pretty much guaranteed that when there finally is a major snowstorm it will hit at the worst time possible. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 1045 mb high NE of Michigan in Ontario on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Looks like the GEM has picked up on the storm as well in the same area as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Prospects for something in this timeframe are looking good. What it looks like and where it goes, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Climatology would seem to indicate odds of a good snowstorm somewhere in the Midwest region in this time frame. The question is if and where this far out though. I must admit I'd be chuckling if Indy got a whopper for the Superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 With all the media attention vis a vis Peyton and Irsay, not to mention how mild the winter has been....it would be as they say "only the colts" to have a whopper of a snowstorm. All good stuff in this guy's eyes. This morning's AFDs from IND and IWX were in opposing camps, eventhough IND mentioned phasing yesterday, they left it out today, whilst IWX mentioned models will have difficulty on this storm for the time being and they wouldn't place bets either way..... Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS "Super Bowl Storm" FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS "Super Bowl Storm" FTW. I will LOL if they get a triple phaser and it bombs out over Indy. Of course if that happened it would rain in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 At least indy can handle it a hell of a lot better than Dallas can. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 It would be nice for this to actually produce. Like stated above^ the pattern isn't going to make this easy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Ultimate :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Ultimate :weenie: That is one sharp cutoff in MO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Probably a cutoff of some sort Cutoff as in snowfall amounts. Not really as in low pressure. It might end up being a cut-off low though. There's like a trace of snow in downtown St. Louis and 10" just west of St. Charles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 The 12z GFS ensembles were all over the place so it's not surprising the new 00z op looks way different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Really? No one's going to comment on the 0z Euro? Nice system on Thursday-Friday. Looks like a blanket snow event from central IL to Chicagoland to northern IN and lower MI. Generally DTW-FWA-LAF and north gets at least *some* snow, with max amounts in the snow region topping 0.75" or so. You can all look at the Wunderground maps for yourselves. The problem is the bl, which is torchy. No one gets below 0 C, but at least we're all below 4 C. Still though, verbatim would be mixing and crappy ratios. Hopefully Chi Storm can throw out some numbers tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 EURO <3<3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Really? No one's going to comment on the 0z Euro? Nice system on Thursday-Friday. Looks like a blanket snow event from central IL to Chicagoland to northern IN and lower MI. Generally DTW-FWA-LAF and north gets at least *some* snow, with max amounts in the snow region topping 0.75" or so. You can all look at the Wunderground maps for yourselves. The problem is the bl, which is torchy. No one gets below 0 C, but at least we're all below 4 C. Still though, verbatim would be mixing and crappy ratios. Hopefully Chi Storm can throw out some numbers tomorrow morning. Yeah it would be close with the temps but decent track for LAF-FWA-DTW-YYZ. Btw the Euro brings down the Arctic afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Really? No one's going to comment on the 0z Euro? Nice system on Thursday-Friday. Looks like a blanket snow event from central IL to Chicagoland to northern IN and lower MI. Generally DTW-FWA-LAF and north gets at least *some* snow, with max amounts in the snow region topping 0.75" or so. You can all look at the Wunderground maps for yourselves. The problem is the bl, which is torchy. No one gets below 0 C, but at least we're all below 4 C. Still though, verbatim would be mixing and crappy ratios. Hopefully Chi Storm can throw out some numbers tomorrow morning. It is nice BUT.. From GRR.. .LONG TERM...(415 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012) (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF SPINS UP A SYSTEM AND PUSHES SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE PMDHMD DISCUSSION FROM HPC FAVORS THE GFS AT 84 HOURS EXPLAINING THAT THE ECMWF AS AN OUTLIER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN LONG TERM PERIOD. Not saying it wont happen but yeah it would be nice to see better model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Coup time for the Euro? Northern IN thinks so. IWX: THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. HOWEVER...IT/S SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES PER THE THUR PERIOD AS THE 00Z RUN HAS RE-INTRODUCED A POTENT SW EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR SUCH A RADICAL SHIFT IN RUN-RUN SOLUTIONS IS THE JUXTAPOSITION OF A LONG LATITUDINAL JET CORE...WITH THE NOSE OF THIS JET INTERACTING WITH THE ROCKIES. EXPECT CONTINUED FLOW ADJUSTMENT WITH POP ADJUSTMENT.... THUR STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN A POTENTIAL EJECTING SW CONUS UPPER TROUGH. WILL NOT THROW OUT THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH REMAINS A STRONG OUTLIER. IND: THE CULPRIT FOR THE HIGH QPF PROG FROM THE 00Z EURO IS AN OUTLIER STRONG SOUTHERN UPPER TROUGH THAT SPINS UP A DECENT SURFACE WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER THURSDAY. NON OF THE OTHER MODELS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES SHOWS THAT. SO...WITH THE EURO WAFFLING SO MUCH...ESPECIALLY DONT TRUST ITS SOLUTION. GRR: HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. THE ECMWF SPINS UP A SYSTEM AND PUSHES SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. THE PMDHMD DISCUSSION FROM HPC FAVORS THE GFS AT 84 HOURS EXPLAINING THAT THE ECMWF AS AN OUTLIER. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE GFS HAS A FAIRLY BENIGN LONG TERM PERIOD. ILX: ECMWF HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN-TO-RUN...SO ITS 00Z 29 JAN SOLUTION FEATURING A RATHER DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS ILLINOIS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY HAS BEEN REJECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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