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Assorted Amorphous Threats


40/70 Benchmark

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Violently agree, which leaves most people around 10-20% of there seasonal snowfall to date. That storm will possibly skew what this WINTER was really like when people look back at totals years from now.

That one storm brought me like 1/3rd of my average seasonal snowfall lol. I got 22". wtf. I'd guess my home location is around 30" for the year so far this year. Ick.

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I think it works for Boston and not ORH simply because it's far more common at ORH and not necessarily indicative of a killer pattern that could never last into winter while on the cp it's a different story. Who knows? 4 is a small sample size but the evidence seems compelling even if anecdotal.

psssstt.... 1979...lol

Actually, in the local Walmart parking lot (Gardner), some of the October snow remains under some of the more recent stuff.

Maybe not, but it was there right before Jan 12, and now there is a big pile on top of the small, older pile.

Skiing tonight was A+ Some of the best this year somehow

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Haha small typo on my part :axe:

One of the points I have been harping on is the Convective feedback of the MJO that will help enhance the subtropical ridging in the Central pacific. You can see here that the 250 hPa temperature anomalies are +3-4 sigma thanks to the blossoming convection of the MJO, which is completely overwhelming the La Nina signal which would normally produce cooler than normal temperature anomalies aloft in the central and eastern Pacific due to suppressed convection.

2uel2yc.gif

The La Nina signal was present most of January (as evidence in the 1-17-12 GFS analysis image which shows widespread -1.0 sigma temperature anomalies seen above) when the MJO was diffuse and weak, but now that its kicking up and getting into phase 7, it will help to pump the subtropical ridge over the Central Pacific, which will in turn tighten up the polar jet b/w 30-40N across the central Pacific. As the MJO progresses, so to will this jet streak, and so to will the left exit region of the jet, which will enhance storminess across the east Pacific due to increased upper level divergence.

A shift in the development region of mid-latitude cyclones will also shift the trough/ridge configuration that we have seen for a large portion of the season. Where a mid-latitude cyclone develops, there must be a downstream response of ridging in order to support baroclinic development. This ridging will now occur across the west coast of North America which should support a +PNA due to this enhanced ridging. This is why generally MJO's that enter phase 8 and beyond typically lead to a cold signal in the eastern united states, because of the tropical signal forcing a shift in the development region of mid-latitude cyclones. That is also why the GFS and its ensembles have been supporting PNA ridging starting in the 5-7 day range.

toss anything the euro sends out past 5 days this year....11-15 day ens disasters really don't bother me

lets keep the MJO amplitute strong into phase 8 ...

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toss anything the euro sends out past 5 days this year....11-15 day ens disasters really don't bother me

lets keep the MJO amplitute strong into phase 8 ...

Chalk off another week to boring. Brings us to Feb 10. IDK pickles Euro ENS do a swan dive in P8 into the circle of death MJO wise. Could be signaling an epic continuation of crap winter with transient cold blah un phased sh it storms. Leery, wary and weary describes my feelings.

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By my estimation, it doesn't look good.

ehh well it doesn't have the 5h low over kansas cut off for like 70 hrs as it had been ....

we have a bunch of cold days ....with one torch on monday with 5c 850's....this run.... we shall see if this hones in tomm nite on a diff /better solution.

it's apparently on it's own with the 5h low over minneapolis sun eve. (someone correct me if im wrong)

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ehh well it doesn't have the 5h low over kansas cut off for like 70 hrs as it had been ....

we have a bunch of cold days ....with one torch on monday with 5c 850's....this run.... we shall see if this hones in tomm nite on a diff /better solution.

it's apparently on it's own with the 5h low over minneapolis sun eve. (someone correct me if im wrong)

GGEM appeared to be over SE MI..but developed a secondary ...

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actually shows how much i pay attention

the 12z euro /ens had the 5h low take this track today...tonite is basically confirming it

at least it looks pretty cold to me after tommorrow..thru weekend..and then we torch for 1-1.5 days monday and mon nite to go to icebox after.....while DCA bakes the whole time ...christ.

the mid atlantic even into philly reigon (nyc 52 degrees at 1 am) seems to be getting sucker punched in the ballz

i'm hoping that tomm or thurs a few model solutions show a secondary forming over SE and tracking NE ward plz for the sunday sb

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