Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Lots of bridge jumpers in here today. Even a met or 2 which was surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Even a met or 2 which was surprising I guess you didn't comprehend what I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gefs mean hints at early/middle next week and then again next weekend for something to be lurking near the BM give or take. pretty strong signal for the mean actually for that 2/10-2/11 window. otherwise quiet outside of scraping the coast thur night / early friday with some light precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gefs mean hints at early/middle next week and then again next weekend for something to be lurking near the BM give or take. pretty strong signal for the mean actually for that 2/10-2/11 window. otherwise quiet outside of scraping the coast thur night / early friday with some light precip That Feb 10-12 period has been pegged for a couple days now on most ensemble guidance. Hopefully something pans out in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I guess you didn't comprehend what I said. he's on the brink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gefs mean hints at early/middle next week and then again next weekend for something to be lurking near the BM give or take. pretty strong signal for the mean actually for that 2/10-2/11 window. otherwise quiet outside of scraping the coast thur night / early friday with some light precip That signal has looked strong on all guidance for a while. Good to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 That Feb 10-12 period has been pegged for a couple days now on most ensemble guidance. Hopefully something pans out in that time frame. yeah some good analog dates have popped up now and then for that window too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I pretty much believe that the February 10-13 time frame is the chance for the whole east coast to get invloved somewhat with snow chance. We'll see if that holds true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Getting back to some of the earlier points. The GEFS do the ebb and flow with the ridging. They weaken the first wave and then try to rebuild it again near the end of the guidance. That's what some of us were saying to keep an eye out for. The euro tries doing that, but it's a little too far west and the amplitude is nothing like the GEFS. Something to watch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I guess you didn't comprehend what I said. I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 winter1112.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I did. You are ready to tip into the abyss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes, Good time to bring that out, We have moved the 1st down marker another 2 weeks from the previous 2 weeks and from the previous 2 weeks before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 You are ready to tip into the abyss. LOL..Not at all. I'm one of the few who are onboard for a wintry next 3 -4 weeks until March. I also think it snows Thursday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Another couple of days and we get those drunks down in gobblers knob to pull the rodent out of the stump to spread his philosphy on the rest of winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yes, Good time to bring that out, We have moved the 1st down marker another 2 weeks from the previous 2 weeks and from the previous 2 weeks before that Eh, if anyone really got attached to the Feb 3-6 threats, then that is probably on them...in the pattern change thread original post, we said any storms threats for the next 10 days would be hard to come by and we would likely average out mild as the pattern hadn't established itself yet...the focus has always been for the 2nd week of February and hopefully beyond...at least that is what we discussed in that thread. Anything from these two threats before that was going to be a bonus if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 gefs mean hints at early/middle next week and then again next weekend for something to be lurking near the BM give or take. pretty strong signal for the mean actually for that 2/10-2/11 window. otherwise quiet outside of scraping the coast thur night / early friday with some light precip Cool, another 10 day outlook. 2011-2012 winter FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Lots of bridge jumpers in here today. Tough to jump of the bridge when you never climbed onto it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Cool, another 10 day outlook. 2011-2012 winter FTL. i don't know...i don't think so - look at will's post above. i agree with what he's saying there. it was always post 2/5 IMO...it just so happened that some ill-timed "threats" popped up on modeling prior to that window and i think it was easy for folks to kind of equate those to the regime shift that's on the charts for next week and beyond. really this period we are in right now was really really well-modeled as a boring, torchy period to close out january. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 LOL..Not at all. I'm one of the few who are onboard for a wintry next 3 -4 weeks until March. I also think it snows Thursday nite I feel as if you secretly think I'm purposely trying to be a Debbie or making something out of nothing...maybe even cancelling this whole pattern change thing, because I was unsure of how long this will last. Having some concern for that doesn't erase the fact that it does turn favorable for us later next week. The problem I have is that I see some red flags on guidance, but at the moment..it isn't more than that. It's a weather forum...we all spoke about how it can go right until our heads explode. Nothing wrong with talking about some of the things that have popped up in guidance. We did this back around NY. If I went on here and said "Somebody shoot me"......"Eff this, I;m out..wake me until next October," then perhaps you should call me wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Eh, if anyone really got attached to the Feb 3-6 threats, then that is probably on them...in the pattern change thread original post, we said any storms threats for the next 10 days would be hard to come by and we would likely average out mild as the pattern hadn't established itself yet...the focus has always been for the 2nd week of February and hopefully beyond...at least that is what we discussed in that thread. Anything from these two threats before that was going to be a bonus if it happened. Its just getting to be very frustrating and it reminds me to some extent of 06, Not the same but at least we ended up seeing some snow after mid Jan that year and finished ok, We are heading well into Feb before we see chances at something happening but there is no guarantees that it will produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 The worst part of this winter to me is the utter lack of interesting storms to track. The last real nice one in my 'hood was just before Thanksgiving. Since then ... meh3. The Wunderground Euro is going to waste this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 i don't know...i don't think so - look at will's post above. i agree with what he's saying there. it was always post 2/5 IMO...it just so happened that some ill-timed "threats" popped up on modeling prior to that window and i think it was easy for folks to kind of equate those to the regime shift that's on the charts for next week and beyond. really this period we are in right now was really really well-modeled as a boring, torchy period to close out january. We just had a similar discussion two days ago about the "transition" storm and we all said that it would be a lucky bonus if we saw snow. Just do not fall in love with guidance beyond 5 days out with respect to specific threats, especially when the entire hemispheric pattern is changing. I don't think we can stress that enough. I know it's frustrating, but there is so much truth to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 LOL..Not at all. I'm one of the few who are onboard for a wintry next 3 -4 weeks until March. I also think it snows Thursday nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 i don't know...i don't think so - look at will's post above. i agree with what he's saying there. it was always post 2/5 IMO...it just so happened that some ill-timed "threats" popped up on modeling prior to that window and i think it was easy for folks to kind of equate those to the regime shift that's on the charts for next week and beyond. really this period we are in right now was really really well-modeled as a boring, torchy period to close out january. I think we even predicted some bridge jumping too if models showed the first several days of February being boring and a bit mild. At any rate, there is obviously no guarantee we cash in once the pattern builds in...and there could be some waxing and waning of the ridge out west, but that is not always a bad thing. As long as it continues to build back, there will be chances. Tropical forcing supports any ridging building back if it tries to wane a bit as the MJO is progged to be in phase 8 around mid month. Also its tough to sustain any troughing out west when you have a monster low anomaly near the Aleutians which is a feature that doesn't go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Anyways, I'm out for a bit...happy Euro bridge jumping to all, lol. Hopefully ensembles look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Thanks for the entertaining read during lunch everyone. Weenies have been spoiled from the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 maybe clouds and sprinkles keep us from hitting 60F tomorrow, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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