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Assorted Amorphous Threats


40/70 Benchmark

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Pretty soon this will be pushed back to March. Horrible

NWS forecasters at BTV are picking up on this subtle push-back to a later and later date... good disco from those guys this morning on the situation... in talking with a few of them via email, they appear ready to poke their eyes out due to how boring this winter has been:

ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD

SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FAIR

AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT GFS MODEL HAS A

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL HAS

THIS FEATURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES...KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.

THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS OUR REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW

ALOFT...WHILE THE GFS MODEL HAS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR FORECAST

AREA. GFS MODEL GENERATES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY

NIGHT AND THEN MOVE THIS LOW NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS IT AS IT

APPROACHES CAPE COD EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF MODEL TRIES TO

DEVELOP A WEAKER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST BY EARLY MONDAY. BOTH

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS BEEN

TRYING TO BRING A LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST FROM THE

SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT EACH

NEW MODEL RUN KEEPS PUSHING THIS OFF UNTIL LATER. FEEL THIS IS

LIKELY THE CASE THIS TIME AS WELL. 00Z GFS MODEL RUN KEEPS SUNDAY

NIGHT DRY OVER THE REGION...SO HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE OF SNOW

THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW ON MONDAY...TO BETTER

MESH WITH THE SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS

LOW FOR MONDAY...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT REMAINS DRY

ON MONDAY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THE WAY THIS WINTER HAS GONE SO

FAR.

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That's a stretch.

This run barely works because of an impulse diving down from northern Canada on the backside of the trough departing the Northeast that helps lower heights ahead of the big closed low.

Huh? Compared to 12z it is.

And euro op and ensembles have no snow for SNE except near the Cape. Lost storm two.

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BOX seeing it as well

INCLUDING THE OPNL GFS AND

ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH

THE H85 AND H87 FRONT/WAVE PASSAGE THAT WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THESE

LEVELS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER EXTREME SRN PORTIONS

OF THE FA. THE TIMING WOULD BE AS THE LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST

APPROACH LATE THU NIGHT. COLUMN TEMPS SUPPORT MOSTLY RAIN TO

START...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ONCE THE COLUMN COOLS IN THE LLVLS

OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POPS

OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE FA /PARTICULARLY S OF THE MA PIKE/ WHILE

NRN REGIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY

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brutal. it feels and smells like an early april morning out there with fresehening S winds and a "chilly" feel. i went out at 5 to get coffee...didn't even need a coat.

Snow sky though.

Kits street hockey games every afternoon, canal road still full of bikers, runners and roller bladers, still golfers sneaking onto White Cliff, my lawn is still mostly green...what a winter. On one hand we got 3 great days of snow fun this year, one pre-xmas and 2 others after the storm a bit ago. Is what it is, roads are clear, cars are staying clean...if this is how it's going to be oh well.

You know this winter is bad when even MRG gave up and went to Antartica.

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What winter?

Man I hope the coastal plain can get a good storm one of these days. I think you guys will get your due. Its been a poor winter up here but we've had our periods of quality "winter" just like this past 5 day stretch. No big storms per se, but folks wonder why I was getting all excited the other day when the GFS had trace amounts of precipitation and shortwaves moving through every 24 hours. I was just wandering around in snow up to my armpits in the woods on the east side of the Spine, trying not to fall in treewells. Another 1.5" up there last night, with 20" in the last 5 days, and flakes continue to fall... sometimes light, sometimes heavy, like its been doing since Thursday.

Unfortunately up here we can't even avoid the rain, and it'll rain tonight, crust up the fluff, and insulate it for the next front to move over the mountains.

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Snow sky though.

Kits street hockey games every afternoon, canal road still full of bikers, runners and roller bladers, still golfers sneaking onto White Cliff, my lawn is still mostly green...what a winter. On one hand we got 3 great days of snow fun this year, one pre-xmas and 2 others after the storm a bit ago. Is what it is, roads are clear, cars are staying clean...if this is how it's going to be oh well.

You know this winter is bad when even MRG gave up and went to Antartica.

hopefully something happens in the next few weeks. was good to get that storm last week but i want more than just that.

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hopefully something happens in the next few weeks. was good to get that storm last week but i want more than just that.

Pathetic but if we can get one more good event I'll be happy. If we manage another 6-12" here I don't think we're all that far off from climo.

It's just so weird to not see any ice. Hurting the tackle stores and the guys that like to ice fish.

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Man I hope the coastal plain can get a good storm one of these days. I think you guys will get your due. Its been a poor winter up here but we've had our periods of quality "winter" just like this past 5 day stretch. No big storms per se, but folks wonder why I was getting all excited the other day when the GFS had trace amounts of precipitation and shortwaves moving through every 24 hours. I was just wandering around in snow up to my armpits in the woods on the east side of the Spine, trying not to fall in treewells. Another 1.5" up there last night, with 20" in the last 5 days, and flakes continue to fall... sometimes light, sometimes heavy, like its been doing since Thursday.

Unfortunately up here we can't even avoid the rain, and it'll rain tonight, crust up the fluff, and insulate it for the next front to move over the mountains.

Winter recreation is pretty much non existent locally here, I have had to trailer to get any riding in which is an inconvenience but thats the way it goes, Hopefully we can turn it around this month at some point or it will be a loss cause soon..

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