Srain Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 FINAL... MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/30 GUIDANCE WAS JUST AS CHAOTIC AS THE 00Z/30 CYCLE...WITH NO MODEL TO MODEL NOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. AT LEAST THE 12Z/30 GEFS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE MANUAL BLEND...INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 5. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The EC ensembles look like the op in a way for Saturday. They have a weak low riding south..maybe just south of the BM by a hair. They also have the isobars hang back west, possibly tipping the cap towards the euro op idea of another low maybe trying to develop. They do not fold the ridge over and cut off the low as bad as previous runs or the GFS op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The EC ensembles look like the op in a way for Saturday. They have a weak low riding south..maybe just south of the BM by a hair. They also have the isobars hang back west, possibly tipping the cap towards the euro op idea of another low maybe trying to develop. They do not fold the ridge over and cut off the low as bad as previous runs or the GFS op. i'd be happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 i'd be happy with that. I'd hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 My advice is wait til everything is near or onshore the West Coast, the recon flights I think have been run before but having the system onshore is probably still the best bet. Not buying anything outside of 5 days, Not even buying anything until inside 72 hrs really, Should be well onshore by then, Just commenting on some that were inquiring on recon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'd hit it. hopefully the thu pm event can at least scrape the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 FINAL... MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE 12Z/30 GUIDANCE WAS JUST AS CHAOTIC AS THE 00Z/30 CYCLE...WITH NO MODEL TO MODEL NOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. AT LEAST THE 12Z/30 GEFS MEAN WAS SUPPORTIVE OF THE MANUAL BLEND...INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY DAY 5. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. Volatile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 hopefully the thu pm event can at least scrape the area It's a close call. A tick N would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 NAM slides the Thursday night system off the coast of North Carolina at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Not negativity, just reality. We have what looks like a beautiful +PNA ridge at face value, a solidly negative AO, and a neutral NAO which shouldn't be an issue in New England. So what's the problem? We still have the l/w trough over the Aleutians and extending into the GOA. Disturbances within the trough track northeastward, constantly knocking down the +PNA ridge, and triggering anticyclonic wavebreaking ...which is what is trapping our Feb 6 storm in the southwest. "Change" the pattern as many times as you want, but if we keep that un-La Nina-like trough over the North Pacific, we're always running into problems. But I'm just being negative You were whacking it to this weekend's potential up until like yesterday. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm with Sam...keep the 1" with marginal BL BS...who cares. Look slike another se MA special on Thurs night...it's the late 90's all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Well it seems like we've got pretty good agreement for a snow event Saturday with a low near the BM..Hopefully it's cold enough for the cp as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Now we are inquiring about the recon flights of when they will ingest the latest data.... Yes? Is there a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yes? Is there a problem? No not at all, Whatever works, Probably like snowgoose says it would be better to wait until its onshore for a better sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It appears that a wave of low pressure will emerge from the Tennessee Valley and blossom northeastward toward New England. It is too premature to precisely specify where the rain/snow line will set up but it presently looks like rain over southeastern MA and snow roughly near and west of the I-95 corridor. It could amount to several inches. This storm exits by midday Friday then we will be watching another potential storm the second half of next weekend. Since yesterday, timing and tracks of these systems have changed so expect these fluctuations to occur going forward this week. Burbank seemed to be on board for the first low last night, but obviously it looks less likely as of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You were whacking it to this weekend's potential up until like yesterday. . Sort of, yes. I said I liked the pattern leading into it, and its juxtaposition with some degree of a pattern change underway. Usually this helps to farm out specific wavelengths, making for a heightened storm threat. The last two days, I mentioned the problems I was seeing (which I said before the model guidance started to go sour on us). Last night confirmed these worries, and now not feeling so hot about the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 No not at all, Whatever works, Probably like snowgoose says it would be better to wait until its onshore for a better samplng I did not make one comment about the outcome of the data input. It was a simple question; not sure sure how you're reading any more into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If somebody doesn't make it snow soon I'm gunna start killing kittens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 We're losing Dave too... One by one, we're being taken over by our "pod doubles". Nice little snowshower passing through. Weenie flakes most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I love that movie. And I am fine Just bored My wife has a snowshoe field trip at Northfield Mountain fir Feb 9. Already rescheduled from January. Maybe they will cancel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Don't chuck 'em anywhere......store 'em away in your attic for all I care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I am still holding out hope for Thursday/Friday. Sysytem just to our south and when has a storm gone to our south this year totally missing us? not to many! we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Oh----here's winter. http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/01/30/severe-cold-snap-kills-32-in-eastern-europe/?test=latestnews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I am still holding out hope for Thursday/Friday. Sysytem just to our south and when has a storm gone to our south this year totally missing us? not to many! we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Let's do justice to the original.....playing on the radio 50+ years ago... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REwm-t5dvgY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I thought it said Shemp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Let's do justice to the original.....playing on the radio 50+ years ago... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REwm-t5dvgY Do you think Eric and Snow are eating dinner together right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I still think wave 1 could produce...but more likely wave #2 will be the best bet for anything. The trend of cutting off the energy completely in the southwest is a bit disconcerting, but very often we see models take it too far in the medium range and even just a piece of that energy escaping to the northeast will produce something...almost like the Euro showed for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Do you think Eric and Snow are eating dinner together right now? Having a father and son talk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Do you think Eric and Snow are eating dinner together right now? How do you feel that you have had less snow than you hair length this year? I love how storm #2 keeps getting pushed back. GFS has it slated as a miller B for Monday night now lol. Day 7... rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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