CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hard to believe that the Euro ens essentially lost both systems. Everyone always preaches go with the ensembles which until last night had both storms hitting us. Even the GEFS and GGEM ens had boh giving us snow. Then suddenly they vanish in one set of overnight runs. My guess is the Friday system comes back to some degree, with at least a light-moderate event..and the 2nd one is probably a no go. I doubt we'll go thru the whole weekend with 0 snow events given the new pattern But it's not new. We are transitioning. And ensembles sometimes aren't any better with a complicated flow. The second storm could go either way. It's possible the first storm comes back, but I feel a little better about the second low. And while I think we may get something, both systems whiffing is a legit outcome too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You can kinda see what can happen if that upper level low gets stuck on the latest gfs and ec...it delays the cold air and the storminess. Hopefully it gets ejected in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Why are we even surprised that the models are losing these systems? How many times this winter has a model shown us a big storm only to lose it around day 5? And I am sick and tired of this pattern change talk. Who cares what pattern we are in? Mother Nature is going to do what ever she wants. And this year, she doesn't want to bring us snow. If the models bring back 1 or 2 of the threats, great! If they don't bring back any of them, o well that wasn't a surprise. But either way GO PATS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Looks to me like the EPO is going negative. Maybe a matter of when ..not if ...the southwest energy has to come out. With the PNA ridge flexing it would want to phase in some fashion I think. You can kinda see what can happen if that upper level low gets stuck on the latest gfs and ec...it delays the cold air and the storminess. Hopefully it gets ejected in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 But it's not new. We are transitioning. And ensembles sometimes aren't any better with a complicated flow. The second storm could go either way. It's possible the first storm comes back, but I feel a little better about the second low. And while I think we may get something, both systems whiffing is a legit outcome too. I couldn't believe Will lost it after the Euro came out lol Maybe it morphs into one system..Come hell or high water it's going to snow in the Friday-Sunday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm glad both get delayed because unless there are going to be storms, I don't want the cold. It's absolutely useless, as I don't care to preserve the skeletal remains of snowbanks that serve as a reminder of my latest last place finish in the fluff department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 did someone say the pacific airplane data gets in at 12z? that might help clarify a bit. Meanwhile GYX has me getting 2-4 overnight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Violently disagree to the point of making your curly hair straight. Many times we see a 1-2 punch several days apart with a follow up wave. They both won't be strong..but the first may be a 3-6 type deal and the 2nd a 10-18 or something like that Still la la la la la locking this in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think the 2nd one will produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think the 2nd one will produce something. Yeah...GEFS are still all over the place. Some eject the energy out and give SNE a snowstorm. Others eject the energy early, but whiff the area. Still others hold back the energy out to hour 168 and then the storm cuts west of us. One member has this as a cutter/SWFE (ie-mostly rain come D7) Still plenty of possibilities on the table. I'd hedge toward some snow at this point though. Nothing major, but something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think the 2nd one will produce something. Agreed, it will produce heavy heavy despair ... oh wait, it already has! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Euro's bias is to hold back energy over the southwest, but so far the rest of the model guidance is following suit. In addition, it has been the general trend so far this season for these disturbances to get cut off further and further southwest. The Euro's bias has been a winning strategy so far. Also, another general trend so far this season is for us not to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Euro's bias is to hold back energy over the southwest, but so far the rest of the model guidance is following suit. In addition, it has been the general trend so far this season for these disturbances to get cut off further and further southwest. The Euro's bias has been a winning strategy so far. Also, another general trend so far this season is for us not to get snow Yes biggest trend of the year. Another above normal week about to go into the books, below normal in snow. YAY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I couldn't believe Will lost it after the Euro came out lol Maybe it morphs into one system..Come hell or high water it's going to snow in the Friday-Sunday period. LOL, he didn't lose it..just pointing out the chaos. And both may blow it, so I wouldn't rule out a mundane period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Whiff on the 1st low. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Not far from clipping the Cape with some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Bummer, showed a nice little event here at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Probably still keep an eye out for that deal, but doesn't look pretty at 84 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Agreed, it will produce heavy heavy despair ... oh wait, it already has! The Euro's bias is to hold back energy over the southwest, but so far the rest of the model guidance is following suit. In addition, it has been the general trend so far this season for these disturbances to get cut off further and further southwest. The Euro's bias has been a winning strategy so far. Also, another general trend so far this season is for us not to get snow This general trend so far this season is for the pattern to get to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I expect by some time in mid-late Feb we'll be seeing scenes like this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This general trend so far this season is for the pattern to get to you. He's tending to hold a lot of energy back over southwest Plymouth NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Whiff on the 1st low. No surprise there. Exactly where you would expect the GFS nonsense to be at this timeframe. Expect the Euro to have it back to some degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The funny thing was that this was supposed to be the "transition" storm and not to expect much. All of the sudden models showed a hit and weenies got sucked in. Should just keep with the notion of getting snow is a bonus out of this whole mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Exactly where you would expect the GFS nonsense to be at this timeframe. Expect the Euro to have it back to some degree I'd rather have the GFS have it where it is right now, at least it won't be at 34F rain. 3- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Most have, but I was trying to talk Chrisrotary off the Tobin. Thanks. I woke up this morning extremely tired and the last thing I was expecting to see was that the models had lost both storms. I guess I was just getting my hopes up to the fact that there was the chance of a storm and the chance was being shown by more than just 1 model. But what do I have to complain about. The Patriots are in the Super Bowl and golf season is right around the corner. Time to start working on my short game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Maybe we'll get a cutter next week..lol. Another screw job on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 The funny thing was that this was supposed to be the "transition" storm and not to expect much. All of the sudden models showed a hit and weenies got sucked in. Should just keep with the notion of getting snow is a bonus out of this whole mess. The Feb 3rd potential represented the transitory stage, I thought....anything thereafter was fair game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 at hr126 it looks like we're heading toward a fooking disaster. nother flooder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 This model is so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 The Feb 3rd potential represented the transitory stage, I thought....anything thereafter was fair game. The weekend screw job is very possible. Interesting to see what the ensembles do. That ridge folding over and forming the cut off low is a screw job and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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