Ice Warrior commander Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 OKX is going with that system to be on Thurs/Thurs night now (light here verbatim) like the 06Z GFS OP. Then the forever ejection of energy for late weekend.. Crazy. WOI decreasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Can't wait for spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Can't wait for spring Sun angle FTL by the 11th. Weenie flakes right now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 A bit OT but the euro 2m temps for the period 2/5-7 suggest we still a bit above normal through 2/7. The real big cold appears delayed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 It will be back at 12z. (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 6z gfs has a sne scraper late Thursday night...with a few inches for the south coast...12z should tell us which one if either of these storms is still a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 So yeah...it lost it. Btw snowgoose...I'm not trying to be condescending. But the "superbowl storm" as we knew it is quickly on life support. I'm not saying we won't cash in with this pattern in New England or even with the same s/w later on...I'm optimistic that someone gets a snowy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 nice models runs, hoping it was just a fluke as things keep changing hourly. going back to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 How do the Euro ensembles look for both events? That should tell us the deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 And then, They are gone, Models to a big dump overnight, Still think we see one of the two storms and its probably still the second one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Why are we even surprised that the models are losing these systems? How many times this winter has a model shown us a big storm only to lose it around day 5? And I am sick and tired of this pattern change talk. Who cares what pattern we are in? Mother Nature is going to do what ever she wants. And this year, she doesn't want to bring us snow. If the models bring back 1 or 2 of the threats, great! If they don't bring back any of them, o well that wasn't a surprise. But either way GO PATS!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Seasonal fantasy day 5-7 snowfall total from euro for winter 2011-2012 for MHT is 95" 3 KUs 23" total from biggest event 30 min of thundersnow Epic, epic fantasy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Why are we even surprised that the models are losing these systems? How many times this winter has a model shown us a big storm only to lose it around day 5? And I am sick and tired of this pattern change talk. Who cares what pattern we are in? Mother Nature is going to do what ever she wants. And this year, she doesn't want to bring us snow. If the models bring back 1 or 2 of the threats, great! If they don't bring back any of them, o well that wasn't a surprise. But either way GO PATS!!! Seasonal fantasy day 5-7 snowfall total from euro for winter 2011-2012 for MHT is 95" 3 KUs 23" total from biggest event 30 min of thundersnow Epic, epic fantasy winter Pick up your balls and load up your cannon, for a 21 bun salute! For those about to weenie, FIYAH WE SALUTE YOU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You only have yourself to blame if you fall for the day 5 and beyond fantasy storm. Sorry dude. As most of us said, anything can happen including a whiff. Maybe the 12z runs start to have a better idea, as I think they will have PAC recon data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You only have yourself to blame if you fall for the day 5 and beyond fantasy storm. Sorry dude. As most of us said, anything can happen including a whiff. Maybe the 12z runs start to have a better idea, as I think they will have PAC recon data. Every year people fall for the day 5-7 storms on the models. It may still happen but the roller coaster of peoples emotions is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You only have yourself to blame if you fall for the day 5 and beyond fantasy storm. Sorry dude. As most of us said, anything can happen including a whiff. Maybe the 12z runs start to have a better idea, as I think they will have PAC recon data. That short wave responsible for the Superbowl bomb won't be on the west coast til late Tuesday/early Wednesday.. so there is no point models looking at models right now 1 month til spring! For me at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 A bit OT but the euro 2m temps for the period 2/5-7 suggest we still a bit above normal through 2/7. The real big cold appears delayed a bit. December - 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Every year people fall for the day 5-7 storms on the models. It may still happen but the roller coaster of peoples emotions is ridiculous. I'm guilty of discussing what models show in the day 5-7 window so I hope that doesn't raise false hopes for people....but people like myself or Will only discuss what the models are showing....it's not meant to install excitement being that far out....especially when we say it will probably change again. And guess what, the 12z run will probably change...lol. I figure one of these may work out in some shape or form, but it's possible that this doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You only have yourself to blame if you fall for the day 5 and beyond fantasy storm. Sorry dude. As most of us said, anything can happen including a whiff. Maybe the 12z runs start to have a better idea, as I think they will have PAC recon data. Of course if that "fantasy storm" ever hit, who ever called it out 7 days prior would be the hero of the week. I've seen it happen before. ... The "I told you so's" come out of the woodwork in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Of course if that "fantasy storm" ever hit, who ever called it out 7 days prior would be the hero of the week. I've seen it happen before. ... The "I told you so's" come out of the woodwork in that case. Someone always tries to be the hero, calling for a day 7 or 10 storm. I do agree that in some instances, you can do that, but in this case, it's almost more luck than anything. And yes the 1st week of Feb will probably be above normal, even if we see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm guilty of discussing what models show in the day 5-7 window so I hope that doesn't raise false hopes for people....but people like myself or Will only discuss what the models are showing....it's not meant to install excitement being that far out....especially when we say it will probably change again. And guess what, the 12z run will probably change...lol. I figure one of these may work out in some shape or form, but it's possible that this doesn't happen. We are all guilty of that. Nobody is saying to not discuss what the models are showing or what the teleconnections are saying. In this extended time frame, people should have zero expectations. At least I do. Take the models and what they are spitting out fwiw. Day 3-4 is when you should start taking any threat seriously. I think people gloss over those important word, it will probably change in 6 or 12 hours. Well look what just happened, the Euro lost both systems we were discussing and guess what, we'll see a different solution at 12z today. I also noticed the 00z Euro Ensm have the 1st threat suppressed as of right now. Correct me if I am wrong, but the 2nd threat looks closer but is still offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Someone always tries to be the hero, calling for a day 7 or 10 storm. I do agree that in some instances, you can do that, but in this case, it's almost more luck than anything. And yes the 1st week of Feb will probably be above normal, even if we see snow. So what did the Euro ensemble mean do with both storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 We are all guilty of that. Nobody is saying to not discuss what the models are showing or what the teleconnections are saying. In this extended time frame, people should have zero expectations. At least I do. Take the models and what they are spitting out fwiw. Day 3-4 is when you should start taking any threat seriously. I think people gloss over those important word, it will probably change in 6 or 12 hours. Well look what just happened, the Euro lost both systems we were discussing and guess what, we'll see a different solution at 12z today. I also noticed the 00z Euro Ensm have the 1st threat suppressed as of right now. Correct me if I am wrong, but the 2nd threat looks closer but is still offshore? So what did the Euro ensemble mean do with both storms? The 1st storm was weak and developed way offshore on the ensembles. The second storm was sort of there. What I mean is that it's a massive 1018mb contour over the southeast, meaning that there is probably a lot of spread. I'm sure many members look like the op, which will cause the smoothed mean to have a weird look to them. Eventually they develop a low, but well se of the BM. My guess is the second storm may have a better chance, but low confidence on that. It may be the developing ridge out west that folds over into the Canadian prairies and squashes this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Fook it, I am going to find a ledge to jump off of, I can't take it anymore..........j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 You only have yourself to blame if you fall for the day 5 and beyond fantasy storm. Sorry dude. As most of us said, anything can happen including a whiff. Maybe the 12z runs start to have a better idea, as I think they will have PAC recon data. I think everyone has been tame so far. A winter like this keeps everyone cautious or pessimistic. I think I had only looked at about 10 minutes worth of Feb 3 data so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think everyone has been tame so far. A winter like this keeps everyone cautious or pessimistic. I think I had only looked at about 10 minutes worth of Feb 3 data so far. Most have, but I was trying to talk Chrisrotary off the Tobin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think everyone has been tame so far. A winter like this keeps everyone cautious or pessimistic. I think I had only looked at about 10 minutes worth of Feb 3 data so far. I agree, After this winter, Everyone should be well versed on what the models output shows, Right up even to the last 24-36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Jeez...What the hell does it take to get a classic nor'easter around here anymore....Euro looses both events...Though the National Weather Service of Taunton thinks the GFS is way over done in its solution for the weekend system.....This is nuts...WTF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Jeez...What the hell does it take to get a classic nor'easter around here anymore....Euro looses both events...Though the National Weather Service of Taunton thinks the GFS is way over done in its solution for the weekend system.....This is nuts...WTF! It takes a +PNA and -NAO combined with phasing of southern and northern streams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hard to believe that the Euro ens essentially lost both systems. Everyone always preaches go with the ensembles which until last night had both storms hitting us. Even the GEFS and GGEM ens had boh giving us snow. Then suddenly they vanish in one set of overnight runs. My guess is the Friday system comes back to some degree, with at least a light-moderate event..and the 2nd one is probably a no go. I doubt we'll go thru the whole weekend with 0 snow events given the new pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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