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Assorted Amorphous Threats


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Good chunk of SNE gets hit hard on the GFS for Superbowl sunday...the Feb 3 threat is a no go though. Sunday is where it produces. Ptype issues on the coast...esp south of BOS and southern CT/RI there is a lot of rain, but the rest of SNE is a snow bomb.

Expect new solution in 90 minutes on Euro and then again in 6 hours on the new GFS. Model chaos.

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Good chunk of SNE gets hit hard on the GFS for Superbowl sunday...the Feb 3 threat is a no go though. Sunday is where it produces. Ptype issues on the coast...esp south of BOS and southern CT/RI there is a lot of rain, but the rest of SNE is a snow bomb.

Expect new solution in 90 minutes on Euro and then again in 6 hours on the new GFS. Model chaos.

yeah, but seems like they are focusing in on the SB storm.. which is better for us as we would have more colder air to work with than if the storm was Friday.

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yeah, but seems like they are focusing in on the SB storm.. which is better for us as we would have more colder air to work with than if the storm was Friday.

That is correct...but both storms can still happen...it doesn't have to be one or the other. Typically though, you'll see one peter out...but again, it doesn't have to happen that way. The first storm has enough spacing to make it legit...but it has to be just right. The 2nd storm is far more likely to happen because of the amplitude of the PNA ridge...it dives down so hard that its almost impossible not to get something somewhere.

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I thought Friday's precursor event on the GFS trended north some toward the 12Z Euro.

Good chunk of SNE gets hit hard on the GFS for Superbowl sunday...the Feb 3 threat is a no go though. Sunday is where it produces. Ptype issues on the coast...esp south of BOS and southern CT/RI there is a lot of rain, but the rest of SNE is a snow bomb.

Expect new solution in 90 minutes on Euro and then again in 6 hours on the new GFS. Model chaos.

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My first KU event...though Dec '81 was pretty big but not officially a KU...but first documented photo of me in a big snowstorm was April '82...day time in Belmont MA (just west of BOS)....

april1982.jpg

LOL You always throw that pic out there...."Baby's First Weenie"

I agree that holding the energy back is better news.

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LOL You always throw that pic out there...."Baby's First Weenie"

I agree that holding the energy back is better news.

I probably shouldn't anymore...but a 1982 picture is kind of a growing rarity these days. Jerry will scoff at that and talk about March 1960 literally 22 years before that pic as he should...but I think its cool to show a pic from 1982. All grainy. We all lived in an era without cell phones and high quality pics...until about 2003 or 2004....when all of the sudden everyone had cell phones.

I would love to see 1960s snowstorm pics scanned online. Best decade we never lived...only a few privileged have experienced it like Jerry and Ginx (only part of it). Cannot wait until I'm that old fart telling everyone how epic December 1992 was in ORH in like the year 2050 if I am lucky enough to live that long.

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Looks like typical Euro stuff burying energy in the Southwest. 12Z might look 100% different.

Normally I would agree but the 00Z GGEM does nearly the exact same with the energy in the SW U.S. cutting it off, meaning the Euro could be somewhat onto something....also the location the energy cuts off is a bit east of where the typical Euro bias cutting things off or slowing things down normally is.

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Sweet. GFS lost it too.

It still has it, it just takes it a year and a day to eject out, as a matter of fact the 06Z GFS is so slow ejecting the system out of there we lose our cold air mass, get a moderating period and nearly have a new cold air mass in place by the time the storm is off the SE Coast.

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It still has it, it just takes it a year and a day to eject out, as a matter of fact the 06Z GFS is so slow ejecting the system out of there we lose our cold air mass, get a moderating period and nearly have a new cold air mass in place by the time the storm is off the SE Coast.

I suspect the models are having huge difficulties resolving s/w's not yet in the eastern pacific theater within the sub context of the pattern change.

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I suspect the models are having huge difficulties resolving s/w's not yet in the eastern pacific theater within the sub context of the pattern change.

My memory of these occurrences in the past where we've seen models too slow ejecting systems is usually wrong, particularly without any true blocking and during a La Nina, if this was an El Nino and or we had a classic setup over the W ATL with the west based -NAO I might be more inclined to side with the slower solutions but its hard to in this pattern outside of the fact that PNA ridge is trying to amplify in that range, the amplification of that ridge could possibly kill us by enabling the significant downstream cutting off to the upper level system.

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It still has it, it just takes it a year and a day to eject out, as a matter of fact the 06Z GFS is so slow ejecting the system out of there we lose our cold air mass, get a moderating period and nearly have a new cold air mass in place by the time the storm is off the SE Coast.

So yeah...it lost it.
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Complete whiff...totally different 5h setup from 12z. Welcome to the pattern change and obscene volatile model solutions.

/Kevin in 3 hours/ /We are still rocking with two major snow events for most of SNE based on 00z guidance/ /kevin in 3 hours/

Well here we have it folks..the first meltdown of the new wintry pattern..and from an unlikely source at that,.

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