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Assorted Amorphous Threats


40/70 Benchmark

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I'd certainly sacrifice no Friday system for what the 18z gfs shows for Sunday...my god. At this time next week I would probably be in 1-2"/hour snow right now if the gfs is right. Still, nice to see so many options but still no matter what we somehow get snow.

I feel pretty good about getting some accumulating snow between Friday and Sunday. That's about all we can say at this point.

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I'd certainly sacrifice no Friday system for what the 18z gfs shows for Sunday...my god. At this time next week I would probably be in 1-2"/hour snow right now if the gfs is right. Still, nice to see so many options but still no matter what we somehow get snow.

I feel pretty good about getting some accumulating snow between Friday and Sunday. That's about all we can say at this point.

That would be great during kickoff.

And concur about dropping the "meh" looking girl Friday for the hottie on Sunday/Monday

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Hmm...been away all day. Looks like I'm going to be strapped for sleep this week. :thumbsup: Nobody believes me that winter is making a comeback. I've been warning friends, family, and co-workers. We'll see.

I like the 12z EURO's one-two punch with a Friday (north of the Pike) snowstorm and then biggie SB Sunday. Good times ahead. Hopefully for many from CC to GC to snowNH to PF to vim toot.

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Hmm...been away all day. Looks like I'm going to be strapped for sleep this week. :thumbsup: Nobody believes me that winter is making a comeback. I've been warning friends, family, and co-workers. We'll see.

I like the 12z EURO's one-two punch with a Friday (north of the Pike) snowstorm and then biggie SB Sunday. Good times ahead. Hopefully for many from CC to GC to snowNH to PF to vim toot.

Yup, no matter how the storms play out, I can forecast for sure that there is 100% chance of loss of sleep this week.

Sleep ftl

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Yup, no matter how the storms play out, I can forecast for sure that there is 100% chance of loss of sleep this week.

Sleep ftl

I will lose no sleep before Wednesday night. And then we're close enough in to have a pretty good idea by 11. I'd rather save sleep and ration it during the event (s).

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I will lose no sleep before Wednesday night. And then we're close enough in to have a pretty good idea by 11. I'd rather save sleep and ration it during the event (s).

Good thinking. Usually I lose lots of sleep right before a big event and then once it arrives...I fall asleep halfway through no matter what time it is.

Hopefully we get lambasted Sunday so I don't have to work!

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We are locked for 2 major snowstorms for ALL of SNE...

Strongly disagree. We are looking at an energy balance between two short waves.

First of all, in these situations there is usually a bias in the models to maintain two strong storms.

The reality is usually an emphasis on the second wave. Should we see the energy balance tip more in favor of the second wave, we could end up with the 2/3 storm whiffing (or at most light snow) and the 2/5 storm introducing ptype problems.

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Strongly disagree. We are looking at an energy balance between two short waves.

First of all, in these situations there is usually a bias in the models to maintain two strong storms.

The reality is usually an emphasis on the second wave. Should we see the energy balance tip more in favor of the second wave, we could end up with the 2/3 storm whiffing (or at most light snow) and the 2/5 storm introducing ptype problems.

Violently disagree to the point of making your curly hair straight.

Many times we see a 1-2 punch several days apart with a follow up wave. They both won't be strong..but the first may be a 3-6 type deal and the 2nd a 10-18 or something like that

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Violently disagree to the point of making your curly hair straight.

Many times we see a 1-2 punch several days apart with a follow up wave. They both won't be strong..but the first may be a 3-6 type deal and the 2nd a 10-18 or something like that

Lol. I agree with Sam here.

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Pretty much no doubt we see a system between the 3rd and the 5th next week just a matter of which

Seems like growing consensus on cyclogenisis taking place on the east coast in the 02/02-05 time frame. The models are having trouble figuring out which low to hang their hat on. Interesting times ahead.

Yup looks that way. Winter maybe waking up finally. Fingers crossed.

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Violently disagree to the point of making your curly hair straight.

Many times we see a 1-2 punch several days apart with a follow up wave. They both won't be strong..but the first may be a 3-6 type deal and the 2nd a 10-18 or something like that

:lol:

Alright, so your call for the two storm total is about 12"-24"

I'll say 4"-8"

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While rare, its not unheard of two have two systems the first usually being the weaker, I could see something that scrapes the south coast up to the rte 2 corridor, but I think the emphasis will be on the second system. I think our best chances rest later next week around the 8th, not sure if thats the one that takes the brief winter pattern out with it or locks it in for an extended period (30 days).

Fun times ahead, but the atmosphere is working towards something special from top to bottom right now, the ATLANTIC waters are primed for a powerful storm, hopefully the baroclinic zone correlates with excellent trough axis position to truly deliver a fantastic system(s) over the next three weeks.

SOmething will give.

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I like Ct Blizz's prediction the most, that is the outcome I want or maybe six to ten first wave and 18 to 24 the second and then how bout a couple 1-3/2-4 type clippers with reinforcing cold and deep powder all of sne into March....

Tough to get "powder" into March. The storm its self may be cold enough, but even on an anomalously cold day in the immediate aftermath, the sun angle is too intense and will mush the top inch or so, which then crusts at night. Sustained power packs are more typical in the winters that express from Dec through Jan. Even in February...by mid month it gets hard because of sun alone.

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Tough to get "powder" into March. The storm its self may be cold enough, but even on an anomalously cold day in the immediate aftermath, the sun angle is too intense and will mush the top inch or so, which then crusts at night. Sustained power packs are more typical in the winters that express from Dec through Jan. Even in February...by mid month it gets hard because of sun alone.

Then again, you were not around for march of 1960. Powdr city. I think March that year was colder than February.

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