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Assorted Amorphous Threats


40/70 Benchmark

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I don't think there is much of a doubt that we are going to have a signifcant storm......as Tip would say, we have "teleconnector convergence" and a fairily significant Archimbault signal.

Well, You have had not much to write home about over the last several months as far as snow goes its just good to see some positive from you

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Day 7 threat with bad antecedent airmass and little blocking...I'll be interested if its still there on Monday but otherwise, its hard to get too excited despite looking at how nice the Euro maps look.

so are you saying this euro op run threaded the needle with pinpoint accuracy

is it that much of a longshot

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GGEM is interesting, lol.

Has this on Thursday at Day 7:

f144.gif

Then has a monster forming at Day 9:

And if you watch the evolution of this, it would probably be a toaster for everyone after some front end snows. Looks to be on track to go up the Hudson or something, lol. Gotta love the GGEM. All solutions on the table.

f180.gif

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Euro ensembles develop it right over head. It really should not be taken seriously until early next week. If at all.

Yeah, its just interesting to show the spread of solutions and look back and see if any model had any clue leading up to it.

Ironically it was the GGEM that nailed this recent event. It had a big phaser with rain/freezing rain to Canada like 4-5 days ago and never waffled. This was when the GFS/NAM and even EURO to an extent, had a much, much further SE track and a NBD type system.

Then again that's not surprising that the GGEM nailed it as it over amplifies everything so if a storm is going to phase and go big, the GGEM will have it locked down.

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