WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 hopefully that gets a little stronger and bumps north a few more notches for you and me Not even a hint of leftover energy as per the Euro on this run of the GFS lol..... Uggh...tiring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Another coastal develops after and nails coastal SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 hopefully that gets a little stronger and bumps north a few more notches for you and me The models are flopping like a fish on dry land and you're hoping for a north bump on a storm that wasn't even there on 12z? The energy that dives down after that little nugget is the one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 sorta in between, it never really gets going. i wouldnt take anything any model shows right now seriously. Thanks....I believe around this time last year the pattern change from historic to crap.....not comparing....but perhaps some good times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 funny thing is its been in 4-5-6 all winter and you know it will be in and out of 7/8/1 before you know it how do you know how long it will be in 7/8/1 ? any proof ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The models are flopping like a fish on dry land and you're hoping for a north bump on a storm that wasn't even there on 12z? The energy that dives down after that little nugget is the one to watch LOL, boy you southern boys sure are sensitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS looks great here on Friday. Has very little chance of verifying. We'll see a variety of solutions the next few days for sure. The reality is we may be entering a very, very active period if the long range models are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Wasnt it trials earlier saying how the models will probably start keying in on the first shortwave instead of the second? Nice call man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The 12Z GFS trying to bowl a massive 500mb shortwave straight into a 1040mb high is the classic snap shot run of the week to show met students of how not to use a forecast model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS looks great here on Friday. Has very little chance of verifying. We'll see a variety of solutions the next few days for sure. The reality is we may be entering a very, very active period if the long range models are correct. Looks like the pattern change you and isotherm have been talking about back in jan. This winter will pick up where last winter ended. In regards to next weekends potential i expect a ton of changes and wouldn't put any stock in anything until we get run to run consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 JB.s Saturday Summary - off the free twitter site http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary--january-28-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Wasnt it trials earlier saying how the models will probably start keying in on the first shortwave instead of the second? Nice call man. lol, it will be different next run, but thanks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Dead Zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 well GEFS thoroughly unethused as a mean, but a few solutions in the individuals. Fact is, all this energy is on the other side of the world, so who knows how many true vortimus maximus' there are and how strong they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 well GEFS thoroughly unethused as a mean, but a few solutions in the individuals. Fact is, all this energy is on the other side of the world, so who knows how many true vortimus maximus' there are and how strong they are. Well you atleast gotta be encouraged that the model is still showing something still. Its gonna be a while still before all players are on the field so fun times ahead this whole week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 If the pattern evolves as modeled we should not worry about run to run differences. The reality is the setup will be the most favorable we have seen all winter and it will just be a matter of seeing which shortwave becomes the main focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Feb 3rd - Feb 12th 2010, now those were some fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Feb 3rd - Feb 12th 2010, now those were some fun times. It would have been better if the silly confluence let up a tad..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 You have to like the way the 18z GEFS establish and then gently back up the PNA ridge towards the latter portion of the run with downstream troughing beautifully teleconnected . It leaves our area just enough troughing to imagine that a few shortwaves that dive in and perhaps produce snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 You have to like the way the 18z GEFS establish and then gently back up the PNA ridge towards the latter portion of the run with downstream troughing beautifully teleconnected . It leaves our area just enough troughing to imagine that a few shortwaves that dive in and perhaps produce snow. Here...sorry about that. Load the entire sequence and then run it.... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/f72.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Oh snap....GFS or Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 beautiful look on the gfs at hr 135..we'll see if it delivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 this is gonna be close to a big woof. Lets see if the 500 low can hang on as the confluence builds in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 this could work, looks like the PNA ridge STOPS moving east and the 500 low recovers, come on storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 almost....we get good RH and VV's up into the area but we are still a little shredded at H5. This is pretty good for this far out, all it would take to give us something much better would be for H5 to re-close over PA and swing on east underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 of course this is gonna work. If the trough goes negative and we get alittle more amplification, all bets are off and this is a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 of course this is gonna work. If the trough goes negative and we get alittle more amplification, all bets are off and this is a major snowstorm. We even get light precip at least through hr. 147.. 850s are ok. Pretty good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 A lot of H5 energy over canada that DIDNT get into the setup till late in the game. Throw that in earlier and this would have been a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 ITs like a box of chocolates, zero run to run continuity, but fun none the less, model mayhem laid out well by HM. Fun times, winter looks strong next month I am excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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