earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Maybe some flakes on the back end of a surface low offshore at 120 hr on the Euro. In the medium range it looks to be pushing the west coast ridge east very fast like the other globals -- and will probably wind up elongating the shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Maybe some flakes on the back end of a surface low offshore at 120 hr on the Euro. In the medium range it looks to be pushing the west coast ridge east very fast like the other globals -- and will probably wind up elongating the shortwave. threat fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol..snowing at 174 from a Miller B. Our shortwave was completely cutoff from the flow and is sitting underneath the PNA ridge. Pretty funny map at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol..snowing at 174 from a Miller B. Our shortwave was completely cutoff from the flow and is sitting underneath the PNA ridge. Pretty funny map at H5. Yea odd looking I just checked it out. Just cuts off the SW from the rest of the flow and keeps it hanging behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 It seems like the models are having a bit of trouble with the split flow forecasted in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The EURO loves to hold energy back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 EURO really developing a nice block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 if that block holds the next vort dropping in at 200 is gonna blow up a huge monster. Euro is the old gfs for long range snow bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The EURO loves to hold energy back in the SW. That we all know is the euro models documented problem, its known for holding back shortwaves and throwing timing off. The fact that the models still have this pattern is still very encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The energy that the euro cutoff and hangs back is still there at 240. In fact it begins to now turn and progress north. Just seems funky looking to me, especially with the pattern at H5 and block. And for some reason the northern stream shortwave progresses east into the block. Very odd looking overall, doesn't make much sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol..snowing at 174 from a Miller B. Our shortwave was completely cutoff from the flow and is sitting underneath the PNA ridge. Pretty funny map at H5. yes and if that didn't happen i think we would be dealing with a much different storm system then a late developing miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 yes and if that didn't happen i think we would be dealing with a much different storm system then a late developing miller B. Also the euro doesn't really have a dominant northern shortwave that drops down to phase with the sw. It does have a weak impulse but that kinda scoots by very quickly and stays well north, doesn't dive south at all. So the euro is relying predominantly on the sw, which does not really budge. Lot's of different solutions from all the guidance. Struggling with all these elements and there interaction with one another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 HPC has no confidence fri - sat yet: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 148 PM EST SAT JAN 28 2012 VALID 12Z TUE JAN 31 2012 - 12Z SAT FEB 04 2012 MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL BUNDLES OF SHRTWV ENERGY WITHIN AND AHEAD OF AN EVOLVING MEAN TROF EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE ERN STATES BY LATE NEXT WEEK... LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF ONE OR MORE SFC WAVES THAT MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. FURTHER ISSUES ARE INDICATED WITH ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAY BEGIN TO INTRUDE UPON THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER WRN NOAM BY MID-LATE WEEK... WITH THE SHAPE OF THE WRN RIDGE IN TURN AFFECTING THE ORIENTATION OF THE ERN TROF AS OF FRI-SAT. AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CNTRL-ERN MEAN TROF... THE GFS IS A SLOW EXTREME COMPARED TO MOST OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE GEFS MEAN WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK THRU THE UPR GRTLKS/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FCST. LATEST ECMWF RUNS ALONG WITH THE GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPRISE THE MAJORITY SOLN CLUSTER THAT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO CONTINUITY. FARTHER WWD 00Z MODEL RUNS AND 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF-CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS GENERALLY AGREE UPON A POSITIVE TILT ORIENTATION OF ENERGY WITHIN THE CNTRL CONUS MEAN TROF BY DAY 5 THU... LEADING TO A FLAT/WEAK DEPICTION OF SFC LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MS VLY INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS SCENARIO IS IN CONTRAST TO AT LEAST THE PAST COUPLE OF ECMWF RUNS THAT HAD EJECTED A NEUTRAL TILT SHRTWV TO GENERATE DEEP LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NERN COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THE DEEPER SCENARIO IS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD BUT NOW APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY IN THE MINORITY... ASIDE FROM THE OUT OF PHASE UKMET... NOT TO GIVE TOO MUCH WEIGHT IN A DETERMINISTIC FCST. THE GFS COMPARES ACCEPTABLY TO THE CONSENSUS EVOLUTION ALOFT OVER THE CNTRL CONUS AROUND WED-FRI BUT A FARTHER EWD TRACK OF A NERN PAC CLOSED LOW NEARING THE SERN AK COAST AROUND THU ULTIMATELY LEADS TO GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF CANADIAN FLOW INTO THE ERN CONUS TROF BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. BY DAY 7 SAT THE RESULTING SHRTWV IN THE GFS IS SHARPER AND MORE AMPLIFIED THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS. BASED ON CONSENSUS LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS FOR THE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GRTLKS/NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD... AND FOR THE SRN PART OF THE ERN TROF BY DAY 7 SAT... DAYS 3-7 START WITH A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF MEAN. THE GREATER EMPHASIS ON ENSEMBLE MEANS DOWNPLAYS THE VARIOUS SHRTWV DETAILS THAT HAVE MINIMAL PREDICTABILITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. ...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS...BASED UPON THE SAME THINKING AS DISCUSSED ABOVE BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL ADVANTAGE OF 00Z ECMWF ENS MEANS/LAGGED AVERAGE FORECASTS AND 06Z GFS. THE BLEND IS MODIFIED AND SIMPLIFIED TO A 00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN WEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF THRU DAY 5 THURS THEN AN EVEN BLEND OF ECMWF AND ECMWF ENS MEANS DAYS 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT. THE UNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE REMAIN AND INCREASE IN TIME THRU THE PERIOD WITH A WIDE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD ESPECIALLY DAYS 6 AND 7. TELECONNECTIONS BASED ON A PREVAILING NEG HT ANOMALY IN THE NERN PACIFIC INDICATE DOWNSTREAM WRN CONUS RIDGING AND A MEAN ERN CONUS TROF. HOWEVER THE ECMWF KEEPS ITS NEG HTS ANOMALY CENTER IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WHILE THE GFS CENTER IS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER NRN KAMCHATKA. WHILE THIS RESULTS IN A SIMILAR PATTERN THE MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF DOES NOT CORRESPOND WELL WITH ITS TELECONNECTION LOCATION SUGGESTING DOWNSTREAM OVER AMPLIFICATION. ..AFTN FINALS...AVAILABLE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE OF GFS/CMC/ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT UKMET INDICATE STRONGER WRN CONUS RIDGING WITH ITS AXIS WESTWARD OR PRIOR RUNS AND A DEEPER TROF OR POSSIBLE CLOSED TO CUTOFF LOW WELL WESTWARD OF PRIOR RUNS WITH MID LEVEL BASE CLOSE OFF IN THE SOUTHWEST. 12Z GEFS IS NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THAT SOLUTION WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN. ONLY SUBTLE MINOR CHANGES MADE TO 12Z FINALS WITH LOW TO NO CONFIDENCE DAYS 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 MJO anyone?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 That mjo moves to phase 7 too it will really work in our favor as far as getti ng a good storm in the next week or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 MJO anyone?? GEFS are off the hook with this....Euro shows a nice progression as well. I guess it can't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Where do you get the ECMWF image from? GEFS are off the hook with this....Euro shows a nice progression as well. I guess it can't hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Where do you get the ECMWF image from? Available here.. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Thanks! Available here.. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Thanks! NP, even have the Brazilian forecast in there for good measure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 funny thing is its been in 4-5-6 all winter and you know it will be in and out of 7/8/1 before you know it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 congrats Mt. Earthlight 18z gfs for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS now says a Friday morning special........perhaps we are moving towards a compromise for the transitional Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Classic Negative NAO... It is an East based one, but, better than +. IF that happens, we'd probably get a KU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 congrats Mt. Earthlight 18z gfs for Friday. And NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GFS now says a Friday morning special........perhaps we are moving towards a compromise for the transitional hopefully that gets a little stronger and bumps north a few more notches for you and me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Classic Negative NAO... IF that happens, we'd probably get a KU. best height anomolies a little east for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 hopefully that gets a little stronger and bumps north a few more notches for you and me Is it just a flat wave or coastal.....sorry on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Is it just a flat wave or coastal.....sorry on my phone sorta in between, it never really gets going. i wouldnt take anything any model shows right now seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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