Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I think the longer it takes for the storm to pull out the better the chance for it to cut into the lakes. If it comes out sooner/faster, we probably would have a better chance. In other years, it might be different. But this season, the strong high pressure systems do not stick around for a long time to our n and w. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 wouldnt be surprised to see that first wave be stronger and come further north, that would be a nice snow storm with the 1045 high moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Interesting GFS op run. Haven't seen anything like that in a while, that's for sure. I'm still not too excited because of the eastward extention/breakdown of the west coast ridge. Look at the height field out west and how it is pushing eastward over the International Border instead of extending into Canada. This is going to press on the flow over the Central and Eastern US. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Haven't seen anything like that in a while, that's for sure. I'm still not too excited because of the eastward extention/breakdown of the west coast ridge. Look at the height field out west and how it is pushing eastward over the International Border instead of extending into Canada. This is going to press on the flow over the Central and Eastern US. http://www.meteo.psu...VN_12z/f168.gif I'm not into that storm for now. Too much can happen at this point....it could do anything. Lets see this on Monday, and evaluate where we are at. It's possible we still won't have a clue by then. I'm interested to see what the ensembles do...I think the op run may have gotten carried away a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'm not into that storm for now. Too much can happen at this point....it could do anything. Lets see this on Monday, and evaluate where we are at. It's possible we still won't have a clue by then. I'm interested to see what the ensembles do...I think the op run may have gotten carried away a bit. I think we will be waiting until after SB weekend before we can get a solid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 again very sceptical at any pattern change this winter..it's one of those winters..expectations are near 0..not suprised at all at what the GFS is showing Agree, and not just about a "pattern change", whatever that has come to mean these days, but about any extended period of wintry weather. Amazing to me the level of optimism displayed by some in the last 24 hours, including talk about enjoying the Superbowl with a snowstorm (perhaps in Alaska) and being dumped on with multiple big snows in February. I'm not trouncing the exchange of ideas or speculation or playing the "what if" game. However, much of this goes way/way beyond that and it often comes with a suspension of reality, or at the very least, without a balanced view of things. Carry on guys. The dream pattern, storm, girl, whatever, is always just around the corner. The trouble is people have lost sight of how long the block is before getting to the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 So what exactly was the GFS doing there? Truncation ruin things? How come the low sits there for so long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 So what exactly was the GFS doing there? Truncation ruin things? How come the low sits there for so long? it gets pinched off in the flow long before truncaction. The longer it sits there, the worse it is as we lose the confluence to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I can throw this little nugget out there...the GFS is gone wild due to the development of a wave packet across the Pacific that appears to lead to these very variable solutions run to run. For example, last nights 00z run. Much research is being done on predictability of these wave packets at Stony Brook and some results have shown that the OP GFS does horrible with them. http://ferrel.msrc.s...Z/plot4-144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 it gets pinched off in the flow long before truncaction. The longer it sits there, the worse it is as we lose the confluence to the north. Do you find this has a decent chance of happening, or it is just one of the many solutions we have seen from the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Do you find this has a decent chance of happening, or it is just one of the many solutions we have seen from the GFS? just one of many, its gonna be four, five days till the true pattern at this time frame reveals itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Strong potential there over the period, overall very nice set up, just have to wait a while for the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Every run is dramatically different and it's still far out in the future that I wouldn't worry too much about it yet. Things definitely might get a little crazy though and who knows if it will really change in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 you guys are gonna love the ensembles, they eject the energy must better and trounce us. WOOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 you guys are gonna love the ensembles, they eject the energy must better and trounce us. WOOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 It seems like the gfs is holding on to the low too much and there is huge high pressure over the area at say 168 hrs and the low waits and then plows through, The final result will almost never look like how it is this far out, but it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 before and after too strong precip signal plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 before and after too strong precip signal plenty cold Very close to the 0z Euro Ens, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Gefs ejects the shortwave much quicker and has the storm Friday night and over by Saturday early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Very close to the 0z Euro Ens, fwiw you must know some impt people to see those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Gefs ejects the shortwave much quicker and has the storm Friday night and over by Saturday early morning. its 156 through 180 hours. thats a long time dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I don't by the 12z OP gfs. If that low ejects to the NE GAME ON! That setup is absolutely beautiful with the strong confluence and banana HP, a nice block setting up, and a crazy plume of moisture in association with the split flow and moist STJ. As trials mentioned, it is only because it pinches it off and lets it sit for like three days in the same spot that the outcome is not favorable. Head that thing continued to progress eastward, wow I can't even begin to imagine what it would have shown. We have plenty of time to work things out, but it is definitely the best setup so far that we have seen this winter. We just need that energy and SW to continue to move, not hang back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 you must know some impt people to see those maps Lay up for 2 points lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 12z ensembles looks more realistic then the crazy op run - will be interesting to see most of the the individual members and if any agree with the op http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 It's really hard to believe because it feels like were rapidly entering spring and this week is going to feel like early April, supposed to be near 60 on Wednesday and 50s for Tue and Thurs, beautiful weather coming up this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 huge split on the individual members from cold and surpressed to warm and amped to perfect and burried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 It's really hard to believe because it feels like were rapidly entering spring and this week is going to feel like early April, supposed to be near 60 on Wednesday and 50s for Tue and Thurs, beautiful weather coming up this week. We were saying the same thing in 1983 - in fact this winter is similar to82 - 83 - mild january and early february with only about 5 inches total snowfall before the Feb 11-12 snowstorm......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 huge split on the individual members from cold and surpressed to warm and amped to perfect and burried. at this range, there will likely be many more changes in regard to the storm, trough evolution and the pattern. Im sure we will see a bunch of whacky weenie solutions in the next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Like the other global models the CMC has the ridge extending east and elongating the shortwave(s). The storm will never work out if this happens. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/f168.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 A bit off topic -- earlier in the period -- but the NAM is indicating the potential for snow squalls Sunday Night with the passage of a strong mid level shortwave trough. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_12z/rad36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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