tornadojay Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 wet, a lot of water out there. With a dash of salt too ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 It's annoying having to wait through 150-200 hours of GFS boredom to get to the good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 liking the split flow look on the gfs, split flow is huge, need to keep the se ridge at bay with no blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 liking the split flow look on the gfs, split flow is huge, need to keep the se ridge at bay with no blocking Split flow can be fun, we all saw that with February 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 wow at the 6z GFS. I think its solution is garbage but only because of how it handles the shortwaves. I think it was very close to producing a very large snowstorm. For some reason the GFS wants to hang the sw energy back. If it was able to kick out a bit earlier and interact with the northern shortwave everyone on here would have been jumping for joy. A beautiful ridge out west with nice placement, strong arctic banana hp, and most importantly some resemblance of blocking which prevents the confluence from budging. It was just a few hours away from going boom! This slightly later setup (later next weekend) is more favorable because the earlier waves do explode as they depart and establish some blockiness. I would have loved to have seen what the 6z GFS would have looked like had it been a few hours quicker with the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Split flow can be fun, we all saw that with February 2003. that was a nino and a totally different pattern. Not really a good idea to compare what we are potentially seeing now to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 already seeing the hp exerting much more influence on the us than yesterdays runs. The push of the polar air is so important because we arent dealing with a deep arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 that was a nino and a totally different pattern. Not really a good idea to compare what we are potentially seeing now to that. I know that; I was remaking how that had a split flow which can do us good as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Trials man as stated last night by you this pattern that we could be headed into is a powderkeg with a match next to it. One of these shortwaves time right and its a huge snowstorm for us. Exciting week to come for sure and its gonna change plenty till then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 already seeing the hp exerting much more influence on the us than yesterdays runs. The push of the polar air is so important because we arent dealing with a deep arctic airmass. High pressure is strengthening under the confluent flow in southern Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 Is that a 1040 dome of HP building in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 THIS IS A MILLION TIMES better setup on the 12z gfs with a solid 1040+ HP building over the northern tier and a juiced up split flow sign me up for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 High pressure is strengthening under the confluent flow in southern Canada Liking those highs strengthening and moving southeast into he great lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 12z GFS looks alot more amped out 150hrs. Bigger ULL over SE Canada too. This might be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 That HP would be a thing of beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 lets just hope it doesnt pinch off the 500 low, we need to keep the vort moving along in the flow to eject out into the cold dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 first wave gets flattened, maybe the second one is strong enough to eject out i would much rather this pattern though then the junk we saw yesterday. cold and supressed right now is what you want to see this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 we are gonna lose the look due to truncaction, but its apparent now the real system here is likely sunday into tuesday, and with this type of pattern, it could easily be a very slow moving storm. Just gotta get it up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 big time scandanavian block trying to work in back towards greenland is gonna buckly the whole flow even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol, what in the world is going on at 186 hours? 546dm cutoff low over Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Is that a 1040 banana high i see? So beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I dont know if the GFS is picking up on how good a CAD pattern there could be with that setup.. That would spell major ice in the appalacian valleys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I dont know if the GFS is picking up on how good a CAD pattern there could be with that setup.. That would spell major ice in the appalacian valleys i dont buy anything it just didn't. That vort isn't cutting up to chicago with that ridge out west and the huge block coming back over to the top of greenland from the scandanavian area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol, what in the world is going on at 186 hours? 546dm cutoff low over Arkansas. Lol. Sounds like a March storm with the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The low cuts into Lakes at 204hrs. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 1060 HP in western canada at 324 hours, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 i dont buy anything it just didn't. That vort isn't cutting up to chicago with that ridge out west and the huge block coming back over to the top of greenland from the scandanavian are Could be a good candidate for coastal jump reformation in response to the insane baroclinicity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The low cuts into Lakes at 204hrs. Lol again very sceptical at any pattern change this winter..it's one of those winters..expectations are near 0..not suprised at all at what the GFS is showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Could be a good candidate for coastal jump reformation in response to the insane baroclinicity it should have done that and tried to but it got all lost. Its just too far out in time. One thing is for sure, February is going to feature some insane blocking features around the globe whether we get a cut off -epo or greenland block or epo / ao combo etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Interesting GFS op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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