Kaner587 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Man is there a lot of energy at the base of that trough on the gfs....if only the orientation were better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 0z GFS tonight shifts our ridge axis further East this run causing the storm to slide out to sea. This is typical GFS SE bias in my opinion, and this model never performs well in this time range. I would lean more heavily on the EURO/CMC at this point in time. http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif Sorry I put this post in the HM, DT, JB thread by accident. Still getting use to this board, as I will try and start posting here more often for now. Back to top Quote MultiQuote Edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 GGEM is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The 0Z models GGEM and GFS are picking up on the temporary block that is developing upstream causing the arctic high to move southeast and stay in place in Quebec - this is a much better set up then the progressive pattern and no block causing storms to ride up west of I-95. The GGEM is OTS right now and the GFS further south and OTS BUT there is plenty of time left -and we would want them to be OTS this far out - so the natural west trend will not be west of I-95 . if the EURO comes in with the same type of set up - chances of an east coast snow storm between the Feb 4 -11 will increase dramatically - the main ingredient strong HP in southeast canada is a strong signal.plus Feb 4 -11 is historically prime time for winter storms along the east coast............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Though the possibility of a coastal storm during this period is still very much alive, the air is not that cold. More than likely, given the set up and pattern currently indicated, temperatures would be marginal. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Though the possibility of a coastal storm during this period is still very much alive, the air is not that cold. More than likely, given the set up and pattern currently indicated, temperatures would be marginal. WX/PT 850's are cold enough next weekend and so are the surface temps - chop a few degrees off the surface if there is cloud and precip dynamic cooling cover in this situation http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Unless I am missing something it appears as though the 00z ECM does not deliver the snow/rain storm the 12 Z did! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 at hour 204 there is a positively tilted trough with a 1008mb low NE of hatteras with light snow falling for everyone. There is also a very very strong HP filtering the system. the trough looks really good and if it goes negative in future runs things will get very interesting. Looks good from a far (200 hrs out) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 at hour 204 there is a positively tilted trough with a 1008mb low NE of hatteras with light snow falling for everyone. There is also a very very strong HP filtering the system. the trough looks really good and if it goes negative in future runs things will get very interesting. Looks good from a far (200 hrs out) No offense but we gone from talking about something at 144-168 hrs out to now at 200 + hours out...ECM has been good at doing this this winter season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Sort of an odd looking upper air map toward the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The models have trended towards de-amplifying the first PNA spike to the east very rapidly...to the point where it squishes the H5 trough into an elongated piece of energy. You'll never get amplification like that. The big amplification occurs after this...around 190 hours. That could be the signal for the big event thereafter. Whenever you see a PNA ridge collapsing east across the CONUS like the GFS and Euro have...it is a signal that the storm won't amplify or may not even strengthen at all. Look how far east the ridge is stretching here: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/f174.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 No offense but we gone from talking about something at 144-168 hrs out to now at 200 + hours out...ECM has been good at doing this this winter season! whatever, that's what this thread was made for dude..and the signal looks good from a far like a said. The system actually comes ashore in 4-5 days and the phase over the southern plains begins in 5-6 days, if the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The 0z guidance came into agreement that the first weak wave is not the main focus. This is good because the setup for that favored rain. The later shortwave has a more favorable setup at H5 for snow. The models all seem to be picking up on some sort of block which allows strong confluence to remain situated over SE Canada. Although all of the models are OTS, it would take just minor differences to result in a snowstorm. Take for instance the GFS, if the SW was 12 hrs quicker/ejected earlier, I think one could argue the northern stream would interact and phase causing the trough to go negative. The northern stream energy on the gfs dives south into the base of the trough thanks to a strong ridge out west, but the SW lags back some. By the time the phase occurs it is to late. A similar situation unfolds on the EURO, it is slightly late with the phase. A bit earlier and boom! Seems like a timing issue and even if this one doesn't work out, models still maintain the strong positive PNA out west and overall a much more favorable pattern than what we have seen so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The models have trended towards de-amplifying the first PNA spike to the east very rapidly...to the point where it squishes the H5 trough into an elongated piece of energy. You'll never get amplification like that. The big amplification occurs after this...around 190 hours. That could be the signal for the big event thereafter. Whenever you see a PNA ridge collapsing east across the CONUS like the GFS and Euro have...it is a signal that the storm won't amplify or may not even strengthen at all. Look how far east the ridge is stretching here: http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f174.gif yeah, looping through it now you can see how it keeps the trough a bit progressive and positively tilted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 yeah, looping through it now you can see how it keeps the trough a bit progressive and positively tilted.. This is why some blocking upstream is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 yeah, looping through it now you can see how it keeps the trough a bit progressive and positively tilted.. Yeah...no good. It's the second ridge spike next weekend that could send us the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 p001 and 005 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The split flow combined with the big amplification out west should keep the models going back and forth for a while still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The most similar 500mb pattern for 2/4 on the 06Z GFS is 1/6/96......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The most similar 500mb pattern for 2/4 on the 06Z GFS is 1/6/96......... Can't do much better then that - also check out the negative AO developing lowest its been in a long long time http://www.cpc.ncep....x/ao_index.html SOI is falling rapidly another good sign http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The most similar 500mb pattern for 2/4 on the 06Z GFS is 1/6/96......... now you have done it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 MJO heading towards phase 7 - another good signal for east coast snowstorm next month http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 MJO heading towards phase 7 - another good signal for east coast snowstorm next month http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml Looks like some members are moving towards 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Looking ahead just a bit...the Euro ensembles have a huge PNA ridge and mean trough over our area through the end of the run. Terrific looking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 earthlight is posting....waiting with baited breath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 The most similar 500mb pattern for 2/4 on the 06Z GFS is 1/6/96......... Now that his hilarious. maybe if we some blocking and a monster sfc low at Newfoundland, then perhaps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Whatever happens we could have a Giants superbowl win and be shoveling tons of snow next weekend. Everyone should be happy at least. Is this the potential Superbowl HECS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Looking ahead just a bit...the Euro ensembles have a huge PNA ridge and mean trough over our area through the end of the run. Terrific looking pattern. How is the Atlantic side looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 How is the Atlantic side looking? wet, a lot of water out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 wet, a lot of water out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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