Chris L Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 I posted a breakdown in the DC thread about the EC ensembles. Good news is that we have MJO support it appears. Scott, I hope we can get a better NAO signature, but I doubt that as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 rather robus SE ridge on the 18z gfs, even with the PNA spike. Stupid lack of blocking~! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 yes, but nothing to do with my screen name. TheTrials is one of my favorite marked skiing runs in the east at Mount Snow. LOL, oh alright. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 hr 144, this is a clear lakes cutter. Hopefully we get something after this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 man, what happened on the 18Z GFS.. that's ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Scott, I hope we can get a better NAO signature, but I doubt that as of now. There is some ridging into NE Greenland, but that may be all we can do. It's all PNA, baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 My guess is Friday is a "transition storm"...and this may mean it could be messy. If it happens to be snow..it's a bonus..but I wouldn't get excited right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 500 mb almost makes it look a little better than it actually is... where in the heck is the cold air... ouch... looks like March on these maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 500 pattern is such that the low digs far enough and the trough digs so much, that the low moves more ENE instead of NNE. It's not pretty, but we want confluence to our north. Like I said..I wouldn't even get excited until at least Monday. Otherwise, enjoy the weekend and drink heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 gfs continues the theme of a historic ridge in the very long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It looks like the potential for a bigger winter weather producing setup on the GFS Ensembles is around 264 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f264.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 500 pattern is such that the low digs far enough and the trough digs so much, that the low moves more ENE instead of NNE. It's not pretty, but we want confluence to our north. Like I said..I wouldn't even get excited until at least Monday. Otherwise, enjoy the weekend and drink heavily. no doubt the pattern is going to be amplified.. it's a deep trough.... the GFS is handling the energy in such a fashion that it is uniformly distributed around the base.. and so the trof is just basically propogating eastward and staying in a neutral position.. It would be nice if a consolidate piece of energy dives into that thing causes the height pattern on the lee side to diverge... even then... temps are going to be problematic with this system. Some blocking around davis straights would help us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 The 500 pattern is such that the low digs far enough and the trough digs so much, that the low moves more ENE instead of NNE. It's not pretty, but we want confluence to our north. Like I said..I wouldn't even get excited until at least Monday. Otherwise, enjoy the weekend and drink heavily. If we had any kind of blocking, this could be a beautiful overrunning setup with the potential for a coastal. Even a better antecendent airmass would do us okay. The second shortwave around 180 hrs is more impressive, too, once it gets to the base of the trough. All the garbage around 150 hours that ejects northeast is really making it look ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 It looks like the potential for a bigger winter weathe producing setup on the GFS Ensembles is around 264 hours. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_12z/f264.gif definitely looks better in the fantasy range right now... translation - probably a major torch knowing our luck this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 definitely looks better in the fantasy range right now... translation - probably a major torch knowing our luck this winter Very true -- like Scott said I have trouble believing anything even at the 150 hr range. The medium range guidance has been incredibly poor the last few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 no doubt the pattern is going to be amplified.. it's a deep trough.... the GFS is handling the energy in such a fashion that it is uniformly distributed around the base.. and so the trof is just basically propogating eastward and staying in a neutral position.. It would be nice if a consolidate piece of energy dives into that thing causes the height pattern on the lee side to diverge... even then... temps are going to be problematic with this system. Some blocking around davis straights would help us.. If we had any kind of blocking, this could be a beautiful overrunning setup with the potential for a coastal. Even a better antecendent airmass would do us okay. The second shortwave around 180 hrs is more impressive, too, once it gets to the base of the trough. All the garbage around 150 hours that ejects northeast is really making it look ugly. What I meant, was that there is just enough confluence to our northeast and the trough digs deeply but moves east steadily, that we see that solution. BTW, the GFS is miller B central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 If we had any kind of blocking, this could be a beautiful overrunning setup with the potential for a coastal. Even a better antecendent airmass would do us okay. The second shortwave around 180 hrs is more impressive, too, once it gets to the base of the trough. All the garbage around 150 hours that ejects northeast is really making it look ugly. yea, that second one almost has a miller b-ish type feel to it.. energy maybe diving to mid-atlantic.. coastal reformation.. perhaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 What I meant, was that there is just enough confluence to our northeast and the trough digs deeply but moves east steadily, that we see that solution. BTW, the GFS is miller B central. The ridge really gets going in the long range with 570dm + heights into British Columbia. Once that starts happening -- you're pretty much going to displace the PV to Central-Eastern Canada. And with a ridge on the west coast, even without blocking, you can get shortwaves just ripping south out of Central Canada and amplifying off the East Coast. Hopefully the GFS has a clue this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 Gotta say john that if these models are onto a +++pna and we get some cold air we can really pull off a decent winter afterall. Ive not gotten this excited this winter yet and looks like as of now february may deliver for us. Lets just hope these models arent going through the " its 10 days away " for the next 10 days lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 P001 on the 18z gefs is a two day storm, easy. They wont make them like that anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 P001 on the 18z gefs is a two day storm, easy. They wont make them like that anymore. We have to watch for re-development and then more chances after. So we aren't hurting for tracking at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 its a powder keg with a 500 low like that, pna ridge, and uber warm atlantic waters. If this storm is a dud I still think we do not get out of February with less than two significant events, one possibly historic. Even the cmc ensembles which have been very meh most of this winter are barking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 at this point, i'm excited, but a healthy skeptic at this stage. Can't blame anyone for that after this winter of false starts (particularly this month). I guess my question is, when will we know that these "trackable threats" are real (excluding the friday storm next week, which looks to be a table-setter IMHO)? My hunch would be this: if it's next wednesday and things are still looking good into the middle of February, which is historically our peak snowfall time anyway, I think we're in business. Any thoughts would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 its a powder keg with a 500 low like that, pna ridge, and uber warm atlantic waters. If this storm is a dud I still think we do not get out of February with less than two significant events, one possibly historic. Even the cmc ensembles which have been very meh most of this winter are barking. A surprisingly large amount of these Canadian ensemble members would be historic patterns here. Some of them have 576+dm ridge cores over Southern BC! (p002, p003, p005, p006, p007, p008, p009, p014, p018) http://www.meteo.psu...DE_12z/f312.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If we could somehow link the PNA ridge to the Atlantic Ridge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 If we could somehow link the PNA ridge to the Atlantic Ridge.... Lol, we'd cut off our cold air source and leave the PV over Southern New England. What's modeled on the link above is perfect. Too bad its 300 hrs out and not likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol, we'd cut off our cold air source and leave the PV over Southern New England. What's modeled on the link above is perfect. Too bad its 300 hrs out and not likely to happen. yeah lol. But ir can happen; it has plenty of support with the other models; while the strength of the ridge is yet to be seen... (the PNA ridge that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 As long as I can get out of NYC on the 8th to go to florida for 10 days, I am all for it. Discuss..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Lol, we'd cut off our cold air source and leave the PV over Southern New England. What's modeled on the link above is perfect. Too bad its 300 hrs out and not likely to happen. Ok Weenie question here. What would happen to the PV if the cold air source was cut off? Would it just die off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 00z gfs is not great but its not terrible either. As expected its focusing more on the 2nd s/w, while the first piece of energy moves well to our north. This allows more cold air to get in place with a building high pressure, but the trough didn't get its act together in time. Nothing to jump up and down about but it's worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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