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February Winter Storm Prospects


WeatherX

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ok that is totally an unfair comparison. Every model showed a blizzard days in advance and lost it. Barely any model in the past week showed us getting anything except one or two out of like 24 runs on the GFS. Unless every model has us getting snow by tomorrow morning the threat is dead.

Um clearly some models showed a lot of potential with the 12z suite. If we went with that logic, then I guess the Boxing Day event never really occurred then right.

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What Boxing day event? :whistle: Lol, in all seriousness there is some potentional given the trending of some models today.

also the December 19, 2009 event was going to be a miss until the models shifted 48 hours prior....

and let us not forget the most famous last minute change in track storm - this one had the 11 pm mets changing forecasts on tv and it became the lead story on the news -was supposed to miss the evening of the 24th it was apparent the storm was tracking up the coast in our direction

http://www.njfreeway.../25-Jan-00.html

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February 10-12 will prove an interesting period. Definitely has the highest "ceiling" for any event so far this winter. The storm threat has some serious legs.

After that I am not totally thrilled with the patten but I don't think it's a torch either. As we saw earlier these past few weeks -- long range forecasts haven't fared very well. We'll have to take it in 3-6 day increments at most with the models struggling in this pattern.

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February 10-12 will prove an interesting period. Definitely has the highest "ceiling" for any event so far this winter. The storm threat has some serious legs.

After that I am not totally thrilled with the patten but I don't think it's a torch either. As we saw earlier these past few weeks -- long range forecasts haven't fared very well. We'll have to take it in 3-6 day increments at most with the models struggling in this pattern.

The signal is still there on gfs..Looks like a possible phase with the southern stream cutoff as well as a tropical connection. The one storm that doesnt have serious legs is the one this weekend. It'd be a miracle if we saw anything worthwhile, besides the giants winning the superbowl ;)

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18z GEFS members. Most of them are north and wetter than the op.

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This GFS run may very well be too far south, although there is a limit as to how far north it could come. Considering that this storm will be suppressed, it may trend north but still fail to make it to the area or perhaps barely doing so. Even the northern models keep us in the northern edge of the storm. We'd be lucky if we get more than light snow at best out of this IMO, if even that.

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This GFS run may very well be too far south, although there is a limit as to how far north it could come. Considering that this storm will be suppressed, it may trend north but still fail to make it to the area or perhaps barely doing so. Even the northern models keep us in the northern edge of the storm. We'd be lucky if we get more than light snow at best out of this IMO, if even that.

Lets see if the GGEM,JMA,Nogaps continue with its amplified theme. The Euro also showed the stronger northern stream on the 12z run. It just missed the phase.

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