Feb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Let's not worry. IF we get next weekend to snow, then bring on spring. Agreed Chris. To many people worrying about the end of February they seem to forget the signal for an event next weekend. Stomach ulcers FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I spoke to the Wizard of Oz, and he told me that the threat is not legit. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm surprised more people aren't discussing the Feb 4-5 day potential because it's still there regardless of what the gfs might show right now. Sometimes the biggest events are the ones you don't even bother looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm surprised more people aren't discussing the Feb 4-5 day potential because it's still there regardless of what the gfs might show right now. Sometimes the biggest events are the ones you don't even bother looking for. Huh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's 2 days away....if its not showing up on models now its not going to I'm surprised more people aren't discussing the Feb 4-5 day potential because it's still there regardless of what the gfs might show right now. Sometimes the biggest events are the ones you don't even bother looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's 2 days away....if its not showing up on models now its not going to Um clearly some models showed a lot of potential with the 12z suite. If we went with that logic, then I guess the Boxing Day event never really occurred then right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's 2 days away....if its not showing up on models now its not going to Did show up on some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Um clearly some models showed a lot of potential with the 12z suite. If we went with that logic, then I guess the Boxing Day event never really occurred then right. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Um clearly some models showed a lot of potential with the 12z suite. If we went with that logic, then I guess the Boxing Day event never really occurred then right. What Boxing day event? Lol, in all seriousness there is some potentional given the trending of some models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 ok that is totally an unfair comparison. Every model showed a blizzard days in advance and lost it. Barely any model in the past week showed us getting anything except one or two out of like 24 runs on the GFS. Unless every model has us getting snow by tomorrow morning the threat is dead. Um clearly some models showed a lot of potential with the 12z suite. If we went with that logic, then I guess the Boxing Day event never really occurred then right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 What Boxing day event? Lol, in all seriousness there is some potentional given the trending of some models today. also the December 19, 2009 event was going to be a miss until the models shifted 48 hours prior.... and let us not forget the most famous last minute change in track storm - this one had the 11 pm mets changing forecasts on tv and it became the lead story on the news -was supposed to miss the evening of the 24th it was apparent the storm was tracking up the coast in our direction http://www.njfreeway.../25-Jan-00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This gfs run still shows that Feb 10-12 potential, something's brewing in the gulf that's for sure. You got cold air coming south and low pressure in the gulf, so things can happen. Does the Euro look like the gfs in the long range because the gfs doesn't look too bad right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 February 10-12 will prove an interesting period. Definitely has the highest "ceiling" for any event so far this winter. The storm threat has some serious legs. After that I am not totally thrilled with the patten but I don't think it's a torch either. As we saw earlier these past few weeks -- long range forecasts haven't fared very well. We'll have to take it in 3-6 day increments at most with the models struggling in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 February 10-12 will prove an interesting period. Definitely has the highest "ceiling" for any event so far this winter. The storm threat has some serious legs. After that I am not totally thrilled with the patten but I don't think it's a torch either. As we saw earlier these past few weeks -- long range forecasts haven't fared very well. We'll have to take it in 3-6 day increments at most with the models struggling in this pattern. The signal is still there on gfs..Looks like a possible phase with the southern stream cutoff as well as a tropical connection. The one storm that doesnt have serious legs is the one this weekend. It'd be a miracle if we saw anything worthwhile, besides the giants winning the superbowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It's 2 days away....if its not showing up on models now its not going to GGEM,Ukie to an extent, JMA and Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 lets not forget the storm i mention above jan 25,2000 the surprise snowstorm - so anything can happen http://voices.washin...shes_washi.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 If the 0z models don't show anything for this weekend, the threat is dead. It's all about timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The 18Z NOGAPS still has the system as it did at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z GEFS members. Most of them are north and wetter than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z GEFS members. Most of them are north and wetter than the op. This GFS run may very well be too far south, although there is a limit as to how far north it could come. Considering that this storm will be suppressed, it may trend north but still fail to make it to the area or perhaps barely doing so. Even the northern models keep us in the northern edge of the storm. We'd be lucky if we get more than light snow at best out of this IMO, if even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This GFS run may very well be too far south, although there is a limit as to how far north it could come. Considering that this storm will be suppressed, it may trend north but still fail to make it to the area or perhaps barely doing so. Even the northern models keep us in the northern edge of the storm. We'd be lucky if we get more than light snow at best out of this IMO, if even that. Lets see if the GGEM,JMA,Nogaps continue with its amplified theme. The Euro also showed the stronger northern stream on the 12z run. It just missed the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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