SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Another note I just caught, the 12Z RGEM at 48 hours is nothing like the NAM and resembles the UKIE/GEM/NOGAPS, the RGEM has the northern vort more SW over the UP of Michigan/Superior/Northern WI while the NAM is weaker and way east with it. It would appear to me there is a strong chance the RGEM would phase the system if it was run out to 60 or 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Another note I just caught, the 12Z RGEM at 48 hours is nothing like the NAM and resembles the UKIE/GEM/NOGAPS, the RGEM has the northern vort more SW over the UP of Michigan/Superior/Northern WI while the NAM is weaker and way east with it. It would appear to me there is a strong chance the RGEM would phase the system if it was run out to 60 or 72 hours. New srefs made a sizeable jump north from 9z. Precip shield gets into southern NJ on the new one and at 9z precip didnt even make it into Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 New srefs made a sizeable jump north from 9z. Precip shield gets into southern NJ on the new one and at 9z precip didnt even make it into Virginia. all the models jumping north at once is not a "blip" but don't be surprised if the 18z GFS does not - not sure if the new data is given to that model run for 18z.......might take till 0Z New HPC statement EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 226 PM EST THU FEB 02 2012 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 05 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 09 2012 IN MOST RESPECTS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN BY MID-LATE PERIOD AS A NARROW BUT VERY AMPLIFIED WRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE BUILDS WELL N INTO CANADA AND ALASKA BY TUE DAY 5...WHILE A BROADENING TROF ANCHORED BY A MEAN CLOSED LOW JUST E/NE OF HUDSON BAY BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER ERN NOAM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT ELONGATED ENERGY NEARING THE WEST COAST TUE DAY 5 WILL SPLIT...WITH THE STRONGER PORTION DROPPING SEWD TO SOMEWHERE OFF THE SRN CA/BAJA COAST...AND NRN ENERGY WEAKENING WHILE PROGRESSING THRU OR AROUND THE WRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE. THE LATEST 12Z/02 GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS 00Z CONTINUITY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CA WED DAY 6 WHILE THE CANADIAN AND UKMET LANGUISH THE SYS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THERE IS STILL A PCPN THREAT TO CA AROUND NEXT WED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS SYS GETS TO THE COAST. THE MAIN MODIFICATION TO THE FINAL PROGS IN THIS PACKAGE WAS OVER AND OFFSHORE THE E COAST STATES SUN/MON DAYS 3-4...WHERE WE PLAYED UP THE INTENSITY OF THE SYS CROSSING TN/NC/VA AS PER THE 12Z/02 UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF. OTHERWISE FINAL PROGS KEPT THE IDEAS OF THE UPDATED PRELIM. WE MAINTAINED THE 40-40 DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS 20% FEFS MEAN BLEND FOR DAYS 6-7. THIS PRESERVED THE CHARACTER OF THE AGREEABLE SHORT WAVE FEATURES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. EARLIER...WE HIGHLIGHTED A DIFFICULTY CONCERNING THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SUN DAY 3 IN THE SRN MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE GFS 2M TEMPS LOOKED WAY TOO WARM FOR DAY 3 MAX COMPARED TO TEMPS DERIVED FROM THE ECMWF. PCPN OVER VA SUN DAY 3 WILL LIKELY BE FALLING INTO A LAYER OF COLD AIR ADVECTING IN ON NE SURFACE WINDS. SUN AFTN LOOKS EVEN COLDER FROM 12Z/02 GUIDANCE NOW THAT THERE IS BETTER 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE NRN PORTION OF THE PCPN SHIELD WILL BE SNOW....WITH SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THE INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE QPFS OF THE 12Z/02 GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...AND CANADIAN ARE SIGNFICANTLY HIGHER WITH THE QPF SUN BELOW THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST BULLISH OF THE NEW SOLUTIONS AND BEGINS TO PHASE THE EJECTING PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS STATES WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY SAT EVE TOPPING THE REX BLOCK OVER FAR SWRN CANADA. THE NEW 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE FATE OF A TAIL OF ENERGY TRAILING THE SPLITTING CENTRAL CONUS CLOSED UPPER LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MORE APPARENT AT 500MB THAN AT THE SURFACE. THE MAIN 12Z GFS DIFF FROM 00Z IS A FASTER FROPA ACROSS THE NERN STATES TUE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCTIC STREAM. BY DAYS 6-7 THE NEW GFS SEEMS TO GET BACK IN LINE MORE WITH ITS 00Z CONTINUITY. ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS AGREE REASONABLY WELL ON THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS ONCE THE MID ATLANTIC SYS MOVES OFFSHORE LATER SUN INTO EARLY MON. FLOOD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 A few of the GEFs members are similar to the EC/UK/GGEM et. al. with respect to the vort energy from Canada diving further SW into the midwest compared to the operational American models. A continuation of this trend alone could result in precip getting northward into some of the coastal metro cities. But some sort of phasing is probably needed with the decaying cutoff for a significant storm. For meaningful phasing we need the cutoff to slip around to a neutral or downstream position with respect to the canadian vort before the developing trof axis passes east of the coastline. This could happen if the cutoff traverses eastward much more quickly or if the polar s/w digs further SW. A coastal low is possible, but it will probably develop too far offshore. I think the polar s/w is the key here. I'll be watching closely for trends in this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No major change on the 18Z NAM, ever so slightly more north and somewhat less confluence but no major move towards the other globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No major change on the 18Z NAM, ever so slightly more north and somewhat less confluence but no major move towards the other globals. The energy in Canada is ever so slightly SW of where it was on 12z...maybe a bit more interaction with the Plains energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No major change on the 18Z NAM, ever so slightly more north and somewhat less confluence but no major move towards the other globals. Actually I spoke too soon, clearly a difference at 60 hours vs. 66 on the 12Z run, the northern vort is way more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You know it's getting good when you see HM posting again!! Check out the NE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You know it's getting good when you see HM posting again!! Check out the NE thread. Interesting discussions going on in that thread. HM is pretty gung ho on a storm for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You know it's getting good when you see HM posting again!! Check out the NE thread. It sounds like the February 10-12th period is looking really good in regards to storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Interesting discussions going on in that thread. HM is pretty gung ho on a storm for next weekend. Yup sounds like it, as is DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 It sounds like the February 10-12th period is looking really good in regards to storm potential. Maybe February 83 analog, Bob? I wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Maybe February 83 analog, Bob? I wish. He used Feb 2006 as one of his analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12Z NAEFS cyclone tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 You know it's getting good when you see HM posting again!! Check out the NE thread. Feb 10-12 has been the period discussed for a good majority of the last two weeks. Good to see he's on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Maybe February 83 analog, Bob? I wish. My senior year in High school. A rather boring winter until that storm. A nice birthday present that year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Feb 10-12 has been the period discussed for a good majority of the last two weeks. Good to see he's on board. Agreed. Now we just need a Trials appearance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Would like to see some more ridging near Greenland to force the PV further south, but other than that, I'm certainly intrigued about Feb 10-12th. Last winter, we didn't really have the huge PNA ridging...the block did pretty much everything for Boxing Day regarding buckling the pattern and forcing shortwaves from Canada to take a meridional path. Having a strong PNA ridge can also greatly help that in combination with the strong PV which can help to provide shortwaves to hopefully phase with the energy undercutting the PNA ridge. But as I said before, I'd really like to see some of those features further south. Hopefully the PNA ridging is enough to compensate for the fact that we don't have a true NAO block - the NAO block compensated for our lack of the strong PNA ridge last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 every ensemble member that has a big low around the 12th has rain for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 every ensemble member that has a big low around the 12th has rain for us And that's what will probably happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 every ensemble member that has a big low around the 12th has rain for us I'm just happy some ensemble members have a big low around that time. We'll work on details later. Sorry just trying to stay positive here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 And that's what will probably happen You do know that the storm is over 200 hours out right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Feb 10-12 has been the period discussed for a good majority of the last two weeks. Good to see he's on board. What factor in addition to the trough and the western ridge would we need to see to result in an actual coastal storm or a Miller B in this time frame instead of just a cold front followed by cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Would like to see some more ridging near Greenland to force the PV further south, but other than that, I'm certainly intrigued about Feb 10-12th. Last winter, we didn't really have the huge PNA ridging...the block did pretty much everything for Boxing Day regarding buckling the pattern and forcing shortwaves from Canada to take a meridional path. Having a strong PNA ridge can also greatly help that in combination with the strong PV which can help to provide shortwaves to hopefully phase with the energy undercutting the PNA ridge. But as I said before, I'd really like to see some of those features further south. Hopefully the PNA ridging is enough to compensate for the fact that we don't have a true NAO block - the NAO block compensated for our lack of the strong PNA ridge last year. Hopefully without the -NAO solidly in place, we can keep the low track offshore and cold enough for snow. I always worry in these majorly amplified patterns that a storm that develops will cut right for the Lakes or go inland because there's nothing stopping it upstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The 18z GFS holds serve from the 12z GFS, which is not surprising, since it uses the same data that 12z uses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The 18z GFS holds serve from the 12z GFS, which is not surprising, since it uses the same data that 12z uses. Slightly north but nothing big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro weeklies are really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Let's not worry. IF we get next weekend to snow, then bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 every ensemble member that has a big low around the 12th has rain for us Agreed, I doubt we even see precip but if we do it looks like rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro weeklies are really warm. There always warm, not to mention completely inconsistent. They change night and day, I'm sorry but the Euro is not the god of weather forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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