atownwxwatcher Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 JMA now also. UKIE, GGEM and JMA all phase the northern piece of energy. It appears the GFS/NAM are now on their own. Euro will be telling. And last nights GGEM was so slow it had the low off the coast at 120 hrs http://www.weatherof...SIC@012_120.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro trying to phase the northern stream shortwave at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro trying to phase the northern stream shortwave at 60 hrs. You have got to be kidding me!!?? ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro is not there but its definetely better then earlier. It moved towards the ggem, ukie and jma camp though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No dice. Definitely went towards the GFS idea from the other day though -- it swings the northern stream very far south and west now compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Goose should be loving this!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 No dice. Definitely went towards the GFS idea from the other day though -- it swings the northern stream very far south and west now compared to yesterday. How far north does the precip reach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm in the EURO camp, but here is the 12Z GGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 How far north does the precip reach? As snow? Maybe Delaware... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As snow? Maybe Delaware... Does the Euro show the 2/11 storm as the GFS has shown for days? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 FYI, the NOGAPS also has the weekend storm phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 FYI, the NOGAPS also has the weekend storm phased. Correct sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Since I am new to the board and sure I will crash and burn plenty of times down the road , My contention was always that this would come under the confluence and we are seeing the " NEW EURO " and its problems in the medium range , and thats why I find it even harder to believe to the end to winter calls . While I am no fan of the GFS it ate the Euro`s lunch on this storm and as of this morning was night and day in the long term .Dont know if it snows this weekend over the northeast but the Euro drove the LP thru Green Bay for 2 days in a row . take no model literary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Guaranteed, 6-12" maybe more. Lock it up. Reason? I won't be in town this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18z GFS should come in with its typical weenie solution if the phased trend is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Euro is not there but its definetely better then earlier. It moved towards the ggem, ukie and jma camp though. I'm not a big fan of the Euro at this range in situations where there is wild model volitility, that said the GFS is a relatively good model inside 84 hours, we need to see either itself or the NAM jump onto this at 18 or 00Z or the 12Z runs for those other models may have just been a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm not a big fan of the Euro at this range in situations where there is wild model volitility, that said the GFS is a relatively good model inside 84 hours, we need to see either itself or the NAM jump onto this at 18 or 00Z or the 12Z runs for those other models may have just been a blip. a coincidence they are all a blip at the same time ???? something is happening here - new data in the mix ? there have been a few storms in the past where it looked like they were going to miss us to the south - east or whereever 4 - 5 days out then all of a sudden the models start phasing and tracking closer to us within 72 hours - not saying that is the case here yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 a coincidence they are all a blip at the same time ???? something is happening here - new data in the mix ? Maybe the Energy in Canada is being modeled better since it is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Maybe the Energy in Canada is being modeled better since it is closer. The thing Im noticing is that the "cutoff low" is not as pronounced at h5 today. Models are not keeping the 500 low closed off for a long time, which allows the surface low to jump north enough to phase with the northern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Gfs has a habit at showing the correct solution a week out and then losing it as we get closer only to bring it back once we get under 3 days. Maybe it'll happen this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Maybe the Energy in Canada is being modeled better since it is closer. The Boxing Day storm is one of a few where the northern stream energy from Canada was a possible culprit for the busted model solutions, even when the other 2 disturbances had already been ashore into the US for a good 24-48 hours. If this thing is starting to converge the other way we could probably again point towards the NW Canada data sparse region again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The thing Im noticing is that the "cutoff low" is not as pronounced at h5 today. Models are not keeping the 500 low closed off for a long time, which allows the surface low to jump north enough to phase with the northern vort. Good point. Definitely opens up and ejects out faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The Boxing Day storm is one of a few where the northern stream energy from Canada was a possible culprit for the busted model solutions, even when the other 2 disturbances had already been ashore into the US for a good 24-48 hours. If this thing is starting to converge the other way we could probably again point towards the NW Canada data sparse region again. Will never forget it. That piece of energy came in 100 miles farther west than modeled 48 hrs earlier and moved due SOUTH out of Central Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Only 3 of the 12 GFS ensemble members at 72 hours are as suppressed as the 12Z operational run...only 1 brings measurable snow to NYC but about 6-7 look a hell of alot more like the JMA/GGEM/NOGAPS/UKIE than the GFS op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Upton is going euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 We all know at 0z its going to be completely different. In the words of a great former poster, wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 For more weenie fuel, much like the snow event 10 days ago when we had a snow event as the #1 analog on CIPS we have another this time, the 60 hour OH Valley sector top analog is 3/19/92. http://www.meteo.psu...1992/us0319.php The #2 one is 3/21/06...you can see how we narrowly missed that one and the setup appears more similar for this event, notice the phase missing by a nose. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2006/us0321.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 who here never totally never bought the idea of this storm being supppressed to the south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 who here never totally never bought the idea of this storm being supppressed to the south ? It can still happen. We are depending on the northern stream digging into the storm. That has to be time perfectly for the area to receive a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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