earthlight Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yes, I translated those anomalies to what the surface tempearture departures would be given the pattern. Still, not really a negative thing at all. Those anomalies are in good spots for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Although the colder pattern does come down here on some GFS runs, most storms are either too far north/east or offshore. Assuming that a colder period does set up around 2/10-15 with ridging in the western US, what other component in the pattern would be needed to take advantage of this pattern and result in a larger coastal storm instead of a cold/dry period with mostly clipper-type storms? Would such a component be a reasonable possibility, or is it more likely that any changes in the pattern would be limited to cold and only the potential for weak snow events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I didn't totally agree with PHL on that one, the problem has more been the GOA low, the NAO can be -5 but if the GOA low is there its still gonna be above normal. We had a very +NAO in 93-94 and a large portion of 02-03 the NAO was positive...at the end of the day if you have the BC or GOA ridge you can do fine with a +NAO. Disagree, and 2010-11 was a perfect example of how the NAO signal can dominate the north pacific, particularly the stronger it is. The actual NAO value for December 2010 was -1.8. The PNA was < -2 and we had a GOA trough, complete with low heights over Alaska, much like this December. However, here were the H5 anomalies for Dec 2010: And the associated surface temperature anomalies.: Note the corridor of cold from AK/NW Canada southeast through the Plains and Eastern US. This is with very little help from the north pacific. I think the issue this winter is everything was horrible - a perfect storm of crappy ingredients so to speak, giving us the worst tasting cake we've seen in awhile. A monstrous AK vortex AND a raging low height field in the arctic AND a positive NAO. Essentially everyone north of 60-70N around the arctic circle has been below normal Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 0z Nam has the weekend storm well to the south of the area. The confluence up north shreds the storm to pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The 18z GFS super ensemble is still indicative of a favorable pattern through days 8 to 14. I don't think there is any reason to veer from the original idea of February 10-15 offering the potential for a moderate winter storm and below normal temperature departures. Yea.. this timeframe pretty much looks like one of the more favorable ones we've had... if it actually play out like the pattern is being forecasted.. I like that there is a pretty decent ridge poking northwest into the Davis Straight region... that would help out tremendously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The GFS seems to want to go the Euro's way on off runs but when its correctly being fed upper air data on the 00/12 runs it shows something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The GFS seems to want to go the Euro's way on off runs but when its correctly being fed upper air data on the 00/12 runs it shows something else. The 0z run is better than the 18z run but still not enough for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The 0z run is better than the 18z run but still not enough for the area. If the stupid low would just eject out of the Midwest just a bit faster and phase we'd have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On the 0z GFS, it looked like 2...maybe 3 of the ensemble members wanted to turn the Low up the coast and brush the area with some snow on Sunday around Hour 90...and even then, far from a direct hit... with almost all the other members the flow was flat and out to sea...very discouraging, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 On the 0z GFS, it looked like 2...maybe 3 of the ensemble members wanted to turn the Low up the coast and brush the area with some snow on Sunday around Hour 90...but with almost all the other members the flow was flat and out to sea... 00z euro has nothing. The 2 streams just don't want to interact, so in that case, this event is one and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 0z euro is also flat and looks like poop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Once you get into mid-February, the best you can hope for is a transient shot of cold air, it is very difficult, to have long-lasting sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Once you get into mid-February, the best you can hope for is a transient shot of cold air, it is very difficult, to have long-lasting sustained cold. I'm usually the optimist, but once that minor change to colder set in around Jan 14 but was unable to sustain itself; it was becoming apparent that it just wasn't going to happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I'm usually the optimist, but once that minor change to colder set in around Jan 14 but was unable to sustain itself; it was becoming apparent that it just wasn't going to happen... If the 00Z ECMWF is close to being correct, I don't see much in the way left of winter unless you get a rogue storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Is anything worthwhile on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Is anything worthwhile on the Euro? Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Once you get into mid-February, the best you can hope for is a transient shot of cold air, it is very difficult, to have long-lasting sustained cold. Yep...I use the 20th...of both February and August....as cutoff points for when both the cold and hot seasons begin to "fade away"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Interesting look on the 6z GFS for later next week, once that cutoff ejects from near Baja it could be interesting. Long way to go and everyone is weary, but this could be the event that many have been thinking might happen. Only 10 days away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Zero. euro has been very unconsistent and a big zero this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Well...that big PNA ridge is pretty much gone now on the Euro, and even though its still there on the GFS, you can see how the cold air is pretty much locked in with the PV in eastern Canada. Stick a fork in this one. The euro weeklies did not get favorable for our area until late week 2 and into week 3 and 4. Hopefully, tonights weeklies show something similar. Don S has shown 1956 as an analog and so far it has worked out well. That year featured a cold and snowy March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Except for a very small blip, the NAO has been positive since October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The euro weeklies did not get favorable for our area until late week 2 and into week 3 and 4. Hopefully, tonights weeklies show something similar. Don S has shown 1956 as an analog and so far it has worked out well. That year featured a cold and snowy March. In his latest post, he says that March might be the coldest month out of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The euro weeklies did not get favorable for our area until late week 2 and into week 3 and 4. Hopefully, tonights weeklies show something similar. Don S has shown 1956 as an analog and so far it has worked out well. That year featured a cold and snowy March. I don't see that happening, when you look at the rest of the ensemble forecasts its pretty clear what direction we are headed... and I am normally one to trust the Euro, but its been awful so far this winter in just about every range The PNA is forecasted to become more neutral The AO is all over the place lol We have all seen the NAO forecasts, no real signs of going negative. Things looks good for about 3 days, and thats quickly changing. The MJO forecast still looks pretty good, but once again its been inconsistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Winter of 1955-1956 for NYC: Dec: 3.3" Jan: 1.2" Feb: 2.7" Mar: 21.1" Apr: 2.6" Obviously, I'm not saying we will get 20" in March, but Don S has pointed to 1955-56 as an analog for temps, nao state, etc. since November and so far, its pretty good. We had LESS snow through Feb. 2nd that year, then so far this year. Don can explain in more detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Impressive for an ensemble mean from this far out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 GGEM for the weekend event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Very interesting that the UKIE, like the GGEM, now also phases the northern piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weekend event is over with... Let's focus on February 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Weekend event is over with... Let's focus on February 10-12. I thought the CMC was on crack but seeing the UKIE now also phasing that northern energy is a little intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 JMA now also. UKIE, GGEM and JMA all phase the northern piece of energy. It appears the GFS/NAM are now on their own. Euro will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.