earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I find myself wondering if the GFS north trend might happen to be the beginning of a trend toward the EC... who knows. The GFS is just farther east with the shortwave and allows it to interact with the energy dropping south of Canada. This helps to enhance the dynamics for precipitation. The Euro lets the energy pass overhead while the main shortwave remains back to the west over the Ohio Valley. GFS stands alone, really, for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The normally always far north NAM at 84 hours is not that far north at all relative to the GFS and is nothing like the Euro which leads me to believe this could be a case where the Euro is gravely wrong. I also tend to trust the GFS over the Euro when you see big differences inside 108 or 96 hours. I'd be more comfortable siding with the GFS if the GEM didn't side with the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z Nogaps - Squashes the storm well to the south 12z GGEM- Identical to the Euro but not as much 12z GFS - Slightly south of the area but precip gets into the area 12z GEFS - Way south of the area but precip gets up here 12z Euro- Cuts in the midwest Model chaos to the extreme NOGAPS shifted south by over 500 miles in one run and just looks weird http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nogaps/12znogaps850mbTSLPp12144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Another red flag...the always amped and west of every model CRAS is suppressed at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Any update on the February 11 to 15 storm on the Euro? Just looking for consistancy. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The GFS is just farther east with the shortwave and allows it to interact with the energy dropping south of Canada. This helps to enhance the dynamics for precipitation. The Euro lets the energy pass overhead while the main shortwave remains back to the west over the Ohio Valley. GFS stands alone, really, for now. GFS has some support though. Euro is way west of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Add the JMA to the GFS group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The GFS also trended way farther southwest with the energy over Southeast Canada which was noted earlier. This feature is pretty much the only change we have to get any type of frozen precipitation from this system..and it needs to interact with it at the right time. Hopefully the GFS has the right idea. We could see a more amplified trend if that northern stream feature comes in farther west and stronger and phases with a piece of the cutoff low over the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Maybe I am missing something. The EURO and GFS are really not that different. Everyone thinks the EURO drives the low into the midwest while the GFS does not. The reality is both models drive the low into the midwest, it is how they evolve after that which differs. Again at 12z the EURO drives the low into the midwest, but of course once it confronts the confluence it essentially just stalls. The low pretty much then falls apart on the euro and as some might say rots away. The GFS also drives the low into the midwest, but when it confronts the confluence it slides east allowing an impulse to progress under the confluence and through the MA. The lift associated with the thermal gradient probably enhances the moisture a bit on the GFS and allows the shortwave to ride w to e under the confluence. At the same time the northern stream drops southward, and this interaction is what needs to be monitored. Regardless, the solutions are not terribly different. And in the end the outcomes really don't change much except for the fact the gfs provide a bit of winter precip to the MA, but nothing major while the euro evaporates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Guys, yes the JMA agrees almost exactly with the GFS. I am ALMOST ALWAYS A HUGE BELIEVER IN THE ECMWF, but these past few days to a week now the ECMWF has been horrible with these systems in our area. Remember it wanted to drive this storm for tomorrow that is going south of us, to the Great Lakes a few days ago? The ECMWF is wrong, wrong, wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Maybe I am missing something. The EURO and GFS are really not that different. Everyone thinks the EURO drives the low into the midwest while the GFS does not. The reality is both models drive the low into the midwest, it is how they evolve after that which differs. Again at 12z the EURO drives the low into the midwest, but of course once it confronts the confluence it essentially just stalls. The Euro is very different from the GFS aloft -- I don't think there is any doubting that. It's hundreds of miles farther west with the cutoff ULL. Namely, it's faster with the shortwave diving out of Canada...and also less amplified and farther east with that feature. So the cutoff ULL doesn't slide underneath that new piece of energy...it stays way farther west. You can see the major differences here: GFS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_12z/f96.gif Euro: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f96.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Guys, yes the JMA agrees almost exactly with the GFS. I am ALMOST ALWAYS A HUGE BELIEVER IN THE ECMWF, but these past few days to a week now the ECMWF has been horrible with these systems in our area. Remember it wanted to drive this storm for tomorrow that is going south of us, to the Great Lakes a few days ago? The ECMWF is wrong, wrong, wrong. The Euro has also royally butchered the 8-10 day period the last few days. Yes the GFS has also been cold but it had the cold much more tempered and never had the PV basically into the lower 48, the Euro has now seriously moved towards the GFS in that range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Here's some hope: Larry Cosgrove: Severe weather and heavy rainfall threat for the south central U.S. continues from Thursday night into Saturday. Track of surface low is important here; warm sector should stay just below KS/OK border and Interstate 44. Heavy wet snow NE, IA, NW IL. The "bowling ball" shape of the cold upper low riding into the lower Great Plains and parts of the Mid-South strongly supports a tornado and hail threat. Also keep a close eye on the February 11 - 15 period. I am getting a very bad vibe about energy digging into mexico linking or phasing with a shortwave in the Midwest to produce a huge winter-type storm from the Gulf of Mexico and just off of the Atlantic Coast. Follow GFS ensembles on this prospect for now as operational scheme breaks down +PNA ridge complex too quickly. Just like what John, Tom, and several others have been saying. It does remind me of the February 2006 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The Euro is very different from the GFS aloft -- I don't think there is any doubting that. It's hundreds of miles farther west with the cutoff ULL. Namely, it's faster with the shortwave diving out of Canada...and also less amplified and farther east with that feature. So the cutoff ULL doesn't slide underneath that new piece of energy...it stays way farther west. You can see the major differences here: GFS: http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_12z/f96.gif Euro: http://www.meteo.psu...MWF_12z/f96.gif When I wrote that I was requiring on other graphics, looking on ewall, yea there are differences. Mainly though it has to do with the ULL out west, I agree. I think the blockiness apparent on the GFS slows down the progressive northern stream, which results in the other differences you mention. The EURO does not appear nearly as favorable in the LR, most guidance has trended that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Here's some hope: Larry Cosgrove: Severe weather and heavy rainfall threat for the south central U.S. continues from Thursday night into Saturday. Track of surface low is important here; warm sector should stay just below KS/OK border and Interstate 44. Heavy wet snow NE, IA, NW IL. The "bowling ball" shape of the cold upper low riding into the lower Great Plains and parts of the Mid-South strongly supports a tornado and hail threat. Also keep a close eye on the February 11 - 15 period. I am getting a very bad vibe about energy digging into mexico linking or phasing with a shortwave in the Midwest to produce a huge winter-type storm from the Gulf of Mexico and just off of the Atlantic Coast. Follow GFS ensembles on this prospect for now as operational scheme breaks down +PNA ridge complex too quickly. Just like what John, Tom, and several others have been saying. It does remind me of the February 2006 pattern. Hope he is right because the EURO also seems to be downplaying the ridge out west now and the high latitude blocking isn't nearly as defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Here's some hope: Larry Cosgrove: Severe weather and heavy rainfall threat for the south central U.S. continues from Thursday night into Saturday. Track of surface low is important here; warm sector should stay just below KS/OK border and Interstate 44. Heavy wet snow NE, IA, NW IL. The "bowling ball" shape of the cold upper low riding into the lower Great Plains and parts of the Mid-South strongly supports a tornado and hail threat. Also keep a close eye on the February 11 - 15 period. I am getting a very bad vibe about energy digging into mexico linking or phasing with a shortwave in the Midwest to produce a huge winter-type storm from the Gulf of Mexico and just off of the Atlantic Coast. Follow GFS ensembles on this prospect for now as operational scheme breaks down +PNA ridge complex too quickly. Just like what John, Tom, and several others have been saying. It does remind me of the February 2006 pattern. The Atlantic would need to do a 180 to get us to a 2006 set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yesterday's 12z euro had a strong dual block at 12z. Today's run has a weak -nao days 6-10 and its east based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yesterday's 12z euro had a strong dual block at 12z. Today's run has a weak -nao days 6-10 and its east based. Models are beyond loopy right now. I don't think any particular run should be taken seriously right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Yesterday's 12z euro had a strong dual block at 12z. Today's run has a weak -nao days 6-10 and its east based. This could be one of the only winters I can remember the last 15 years where the AVN/GFS has consistently had the better idea on the arctic air coverage around Day 10 than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z Nogaps - Squashes the storm well to the south 12z GGEM- Identical to the Euro but not as much 12z GFS - Slightly south of the area but precip gets into the area 12z GEFS - Way south of the area but precip gets up here 12z Euro- Cuts in the midwest Model chaos to the extreme IDENTICAL, but not as much....nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Relax guys, typical Nina model problems. We likely won't know about the potential Sunday event until Friday or Saturday. When you look at the 10 day ensemble there are many similarities between the Euro and the GEFS. Since both still have a very nice PNA ridge out west there is no need to panic. Part of the problem is that there really isn't much cold air to go around. Even with 1030+ HP over SE Canada, we get marginal boundry temps. Some winters it just doesn't like to snow, live with it and move on. Another problem is that the pattern really doesn't support a deep eastern trough even with such a nice ridge out west. We got bad lack with an unfavorable ridge orientation for the upcoming event, but if we can get good timing between the northern and southern streams we will be in business. The forecast is much more favorable for a miller A type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Roughly 8 of the 20 GGEM ensemble members at 96 hours look alot like the GFS, thats a relatively high number at Day 4 considering the Op run looked nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Most of the GFS ensemble members have this being a big event for the DC area, not us http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf120.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Most of the GFS ensemble members have this being a big event for the DC area, not us http://raleighwx.ame...2zsnowf120.html Still plenty of time to trend with this one. Look at what happened with the recent snow event on January 21st. It was initially progged to be a nice event for Upstate NY, but it trended a good 200 miles south when the event was nearing closer, and turned out to be a nice sized event for this winter's standards here. The opposite can easily happen with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 HPC is going with the GFS while Upton is going with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18Z NAM continues to look more like the GFS than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 18Z NAM continues to look more like the GFS than the Euro. It came in slightly colder at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 HPC is going with the GFS while Upton is going with the Euro. Throw a dart on a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 HPC is going with the GFS while Upton is going with the Euro. What? THE NEW 12Z GFS RUN WAS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN...KEEPING IT AT ODDS WITH THE THE PREFERRED SLOWER 00Z/01 ECMWF/ECENS MEAN/UKMET GUIDANCE WE USED IN THE UPDATED PRELIM. THE INTERMEDIATE 06Z GFS RUN HAD TRENDED TOWARDS THE PREFERRED ECMWF SOLUTION FOR DAYS 4-5. THE NEW 12Z GFS RUN USED NRN STREAM ENERGY FROM CANADA TO SHEAR OUT THE CLOSED LOW FORMING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE SAT. THIS NRN STREAM ENERGY THEN TAKES OVER AND WHISKS THE SYS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUN. THE 12Z/01 UKMET HANDLED THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW FAIRLY SIMILARLY TO OUR PREFERRED 00Z/01 ECMWF/ECENS MEAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE CANADIAN GOT OVER 12 HOURS FASTER THAN THE UKMET BY SUN DAY 4 IN MOVING THE CLOSED LOW OUT BUT STILL KEEPS IT INTACT. THE REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF CLUSTER THAT ULTIMATELY BRINGS THE CNTRL PLAINS FEATURE TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY OR GRTLKS MON. THE 12Z/01 ECMWF TRUMPED THE OTHER 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUITY-WISE AND GAVE VERY GOOD SUPPORT TO OUR IDEAS IN THE PRELIM PROGS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Latest SREFs look flatter than the NAM/GFS to me, but definitely not like the GGEM/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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