tmagan Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 The place to be for snow, is central Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Love the piece of energy going through southern CA at 168. Cuts off though. If we can get that to eject out it could turn into something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GGEM goes into the lakes. More east than the previous run. Model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Looks like a HECS developing at 348 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z NAM continues to advertise a winter storm for the area (unknown to what extent) after hour 84. Certainly will be some snow/winter precip if the NAM is right. can you please tell me how this is would yield any winter precip http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 GFS is trying to phase some of the energy that is in SE Canada with the vort shooting out from the plains. Lets see what happens in future runs. Looks like the GFS this run is a comprimise between the 0z NOAGPS and its own previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GEFS is more south than the GFS but also colder. Precip gets up to southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GEFS is more south than the GFS but also colder. Precip gets up to southern CT. That's probably because a few of the members are north....im not to excited about this setup.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z GEFS is more south than the GFS but also colder. Precip gets up to southern CT. It is colder because the low is probably tracking further south. The further north the low is, the warmer it is. This setup is not favorable at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 UKMET AT 96 hrs. Not Sure, but looks better to me. Plenty cold, not sure about precip.http://meteocentre.c...hh2=072&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It is colder because on most of the members, the low tracks further south. The further north the low is, the warmer it is. This setup is not favorable at all. Ever heard of thread the needle? Just like people were saying back in January that the setup wasn't favorable at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 you guys should be more excited about the 90 hour event, looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Look, there is something coming at us on Monday too according to the UKMET. 120 hrs. http://ttp://meteoce...hh2=144&fixhh=1 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=120&fixhh=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 If this upcoming storm doesn't pan out, the 10 day storm is still alive on the GFS, though south again. I'd like to see it colder again in that period so the storm wouldn't have to make its cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am always suspicious of any storm potential if I dont see earthlight or Trials in here commenting....where are they? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 you guys should be more excited about the 90 hour event, looks promising I think I am the only optimistic one left . Look, there is something coming at us on Monday too according to the UKMET. 120 hrs. http://ttp://meteoce...hh2=144&fixhh=1 144 hrs. http://meteocentre.c...hh2=120&fixhh=1 I don't see anything worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Looks like a HECS developing at 348 hrs. Banter thread. Last warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am always suspicious of any storm potential if I dont see earthlight or Trials in here commenting....where are they? :-) Trials haven't been on in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am always suspicious of any storm potential if I dont see earthlight or Trials in here commenting....where are they? :-) Playing shirtless volleyball in the park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I must say this; the pattern has taken a turn for the worse in the LR, but.... IT MIGHT be here a bit later than we expect; so maybe Presidents Day Weekend will be our last shot at snow. Roger Smith's forecast thinks so and he has been very well this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I am always suspicious of any storm potential if I dont see earthlight or Trials in here commenting....where are they? :-) I'm busy deleting posts from the last two pages of immature banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 It's certainly possible that the event works out like the GFS and DGEX suggest, but it would be based mostly on the timing of the shortwave moving southeast from Canada which almost acts as a confluent shortwave to help and shear out the shortwave and cool the mid levels. The boundary layer will remain a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I'm busy deleting posts from the last two pages of immature banter. Hey earthlight you still think next week, next weekend still has a chance of producing something big as far as ejecting the shortwave and having the gulf of mexico open for business? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 So I'm assuming the crappy pattern is going to continue and we won't be seeing any new pattern change? There are lots of things which make the storm at 384hrs suspect but the GFS has been hinting at a storm in the 10-16 day range for awhile now. The things to take from the run are a nice PNA ridge out west. The ridge axis ends up a bit too far east (centered over Montana instead of Idaho) but its just another thing to watch. A more experienced forecaster will tell you that these types of storms show up all the time in the long range and 99% of the time they fizzle out as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Hey earthlight you still think next week, next weekend still has a chance of producing something big as far as ejecting the shortwave and having the gulf of mexico open for business? I see no reason to drastically change my thoughts. The February 10-15 period still offers a chance for a winter storm and it could be the last such period for a while which is something that myself and Tom/Isotherm have been saying for a while. The models have been fluctuating a bit, but there's no use in getting upset. Just relax and let it play out. There are plenty of signals that favor this peril more than any period so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I see no reason to drastically change my thoughts. The February 10-15 period still offers a chance for a winter storm and it could be the last such period for a while which is something that myself and Tom/Isotherm have been saying for a while. The models have been fluctuating a bit, but there's no use in getting upset. Just relax and let it play out. There are plenty of signals that favor this peril more than any period so far this winter. Yes, I'd agree, but it might be a bit late maybe to extend the deadline to February 10-20th (ten day window). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2012 Author Share Posted February 1, 2012 Amazing differences between the Euro and GFS at 84-96 hours.......wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 12z Nogaps - Squashes the storm well to the south 12z GGEM- Identical to the Euro but not as much 12z GFS - Slightly south of the area but precip gets into the area 12z GEFS - Way south of the area but precip gets up here 12z Euro- Cuts in the midwest Model chaos to the extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I find myself wondering if the GFS north trend might happen to be the beginning of a trend toward the EC... who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I find myself wondering if the GFS north trend might happen to be the beginning of a trend toward the EC... who knows. The normally always far north NAM at 84 hours is not that far north at all relative to the GFS and is nothing like the Euro which leads me to believe this could be a case where the Euro is gravely wrong. I also tend to trust the GFS over the Euro when you see big differences inside 108 or 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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